Natural Resources
and the Environment
The Hidden Cost of Biofuels
 With strong interest in greater energy independence in the United States, biofuels -- and ethanol in particular -- have become an important centerpiece to that goal. Farm subsidies have led to a dramatic expansion in corn ethanol production, and President Bush has called for production of 35 billion gallons of ethanol annually by 2017, which would equal about 15 percent of U.S. liquid transportation fuels. However, overlooked in the rush to produce more biofuels is the effect that increasing corn and crop production will have on land and water use and the environment.
In fact, harm to water quality from projected increases in the use of corn for ethanol could be considerable, says Water Implications of Biofuels Production in the United States, a report by the National Research Council. In addition, shifts to growing corn and expanding biofuel crops into regions with little agriculture, especially dry areas, could change current irrigation practices and greatly increase pressure on water resources in many parts of the United States.
The quality of groundwater, rivers, and coastal and offshore waters also could be impacted by increased fertilizer and pesticide use for biofuel crops, the report says. One way of gauging the impact of biofuels on water quality could be to compare the amount of fertilizers and pesticides used on various crops. Corn has the highest application rates of both per acre, so switching from other crops to corn could lead to much greater usage of highly soluble nitrogen and its possible migration to drinking water wells, rivers, and streams. If not removed from water before consumption, nitrate and nitrite -- the products of nitrogen fertilizers -- could have significant health impacts.
The report identified numerous other concerns raised by increasing crop growth for biofuels, such as more nutrient and sediment pollution from soil erosion and runoff. High levels of nitrogen in stream flows are a major cause of low-oxygen or "hypoxic" regions, commonly known as "dead zones," which are lethal for most living creatures and cover broad areas of the Gulf of Mexico, Chesapeake Bay, and other bodies of water. Erosion might be minimized if future production of biofuels looks to perennial crops that could hold the soil and nutrients in place better than most row crops. Injecting fertilizer below the soil surface, optimizing the amount of fertilizer applied to land, and various other agricultural practices and technologies also could offset these problems.
Growing biofuel crops that require additional irrigation in areas with limited water supplies is also a major concern, the report says. The amount of rainfall and other hydroclimatic conditions from region to region of the country cause significant variations in the water requirements for the same crop. And water demands for drinking, industry, hydropower, and recreation could compete with and perhaps constrain the use of water for biofuel crops in some areas.
Although much information exists about the nation's agricultural water requirements, some fundamental knowledge gaps hinder the ability to make reliable assessments about the water impacts of future large-scale production of feedstocks other than corn, such as switchgrass and native grasses. Other aspects of crop production for biofuel may not be fully anticipated using the frameworks that exist for food crops. For example, biofuel crops could be irrigated with wastewater that is biologically and chemically unsuitable for use with food crops, or genetically modified crops that are more water efficient could be developed.
The study was funded by the McKnight Foundation, Energy Foundation, National Science Foundation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the National Research Council Day Fund.
Future Coal Use
 The United States currently relies on coal to generate over half of its electricity. While coal will continue to provide a substantial portion of U.S. energy for at least the next several decades, future levels of coal use will be largely determined by the timing and stringency of regulations to control carbon emissions. Because of this uncertainty, coal-related research and development will need to accommodate a broad range of possible future scenarios, says a report by the National Research Council. Coal: Research and Development to Support National Energy Policy recommends that the federal government provide an additional $144 million annually for research and development to ensure that coal is extracted efficiently, safely, and in an environmentally responsible manner.
The report says that there is enough coal at current rates of production to meet anticipated needs through 2030, and probably enough for 100 years. But in order to formulate coherent national energy policies, federal policymakers need accurate estimates of the amount, location, and quality of mineable coal. Such estimates are an important component of community, work-force, and infrastructure planning.
A federal-state-industry initiative should determine the size and characteristics of the nation's recoverable coal with the goal of providing policymakers with a full account of these reserves within 10 years, the report says. This initiative should be led by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration, states, and industry, and will require additional funding of approximately $10 million annually.
As more easily reached coal seams are depleted and the industry turns to less accessible reserves, future coal mines will face new and more difficult challenges. The mining of deeper seams, and of seams that lie over or under previously mined areas, will increase risks to mine workers. Research is needed to improve escape and rescue procedures, communications systems, and emergency preparedness, the report says. Mitigating dangers from explosions and fires should also be on research agendas, as should improving mine ventilation and the stability of mine roofs. To address these and other safety issues, the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health should lead an initiative involving the Mining Safety and Health Administration and industry -- an effort that is estimated to require additional federal funds of $35 million each year.
The report also recommends an increase in $60 million annually to fund research focused on mitigating new and existing environmental impacts. For example, methods of mitigating disturbance of groundwater and surface water systems will need to be identified, as will mitigating the effects of past mining practices, particularly acid mine drainage. U.S. Office of Surface Mining Reclamation and Enforcement should lead this initiative, with participation by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, states, and industry.
If coal is to continue being a primary component of the nation's energy supply in a carbon-constrained world, large-scale demonstrations of technologies that can effectively capture and store carbon emissions will be needed. USGS, working with DOE and the states, should lead a more comprehensive assessment of geological formations where carbon dioxide could be sequestered. This assessment would require USGS funding of $10 million annually for five years, to supplement DOE's existing research funds.
A renewed research effort also is needed to develop mining and processing technologies that could increase productivity, which has slowed in recent years. Approximately $29 million in federal funds should be directed to research involving federal agencies, universities, and industry to study ways to optimize use of the nation's coal; nonfederal sources should provide an additional $30 million.
The study was funded by the U.S. Department of the Interior's Office of Surface Mining Reclamation and Enforcement.
Legendary Rivers Merit Closer Attention
 The Mississippi and Colorado rivers each serve large regions of the country as major sources of drinking water and recreation, as well as homes to valuable ecosystems. And both crisscross several states, making it more complex for federal and state governments to develop cohesive management plans for water-related problems such as pollution and drought. Two reports from the National Research Council examine how these legendary waterways are overseen and identify necessary steps for protecting them in the coming decades.
To improve water quality along the Mississippi River, greater effort is needed to ensure that it is managed and evaluated as a single system, says Mississippi River Water Quality and the Clean Water Act: Progress, Challenges, and Opportunities. In particular, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency must take a more aggressive leadership role in implementing the Clean Water Act along the river to ensure progress toward the act's goal of "fishable and swimmable" waters.
States along the Mississippi conduct their own programs to monitor water quality, but the resources they dedicate vary widely, as do their standards for water quality. This lack of coordination has made it difficult to address the significant pollution problems along the river. The Clean Water Act has successfully reduced direct discharges of pollution from industry and wastewater treatment plants, but pollution from nutrient and sediment runoff and other less direct sources of contamination are still causing problems. High levels of nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus from agricultural fertilizers pollute the river and contribute to an oxygen-deficient "dead zone" in the Gulf of Mexico. Sediments in the upper Mississippi are often too plentiful and considered a pollutant, while downriver they are too scarce, which is playing a significant role in southern Louisiana's loss of coastal wetlands.
The Clean Water Act gives most authority to EPA for coordinating and overseeing interstate water quality. EPA should therefore take the lead in establishing a single program to monitor water quality in the entire Mississippi, and the agency should work with states to develop water-quality standards that protect the river from excessive nutrient pollution. In addition, states along the lower Mississippi should create a cooperative organization similar to the one already in place upriver. And the U.S. Department of Agriculture should aggressively apply its conservation programs to reduce polluted runoff from agriculture and work with EPA to ensure that the programs target problem areas.
 Drought is the big concern along the Colorado River, which is the main source of surface water in many parts of the western United States. River management decisions there traditionally have been based on an assumption that past water conditions will generally be replicated in the future. However, Colorado River Basin Water Management: Evaluating and Adjusting to Hydroclimatic Variability says that new data from tree-ring based reconstructions of the Colorado River's flow over hundreds of years show that extended droughts are not uncommon, and average annual river flows vary more than previously assumed. What's more, the new information reveals that rising temperatures will reduce the river's flow and water supplies, making droughts in the future more severe at a time when coping with water shortages has become more difficult because of rapid population growth.
For most of the last century, understanding of the Colorado River's flow was based primarily on records from stream gauges. In fact, measurements from the U.S. Geological Survey's gauging station at Lees Ferry, Arizona, were cited in the 1922 Colorado River Compact, which still governs the allocation of water between states in the upper and lower basins. But the tree-ring data show that the river occasionally shifts into decades-long periods in which average flows are lower or higher than gauge records indicate. In particular, the calculations reveal that the years 1905-1920 were exceptionally wet, and since then, there have been periods when flows were considerably lower.
The new data also indicate that extended droughts will recur and be longer than recent droughts, the report says. Several different climate models indicate a warmer future for the region, although projections of future precipitation are more uncertain. But even if precipitation levels remain the same, streamflow could drop because warmer temperatures mean more rain and less snow, reducing the snowpack that gradually feeds the river. More water will also be lost to evaporation.
Higher temperatures will also increase the demand for water from a rapidly growing population across the western United States, the report notes. Although some of the added stress placed on water supplies has been abated through technology and conservation, there is no panacea for coping with water shortages in the long run. Cooperation among the Colorado basin states, informed in part by a collaborative basinwide study of water practices and pressing issues in water supply and demand, will be essential in managing future droughts, as will better communication between scientists and water managers. The proposed study could be conducted by the basin states, federal agencies, universities in the region, or some combination thereof. The states should work with Congress on a strategy to commission and fund the study.
The Mississippi River study was funded by the McKnight Foundation. The Colorado River study was funded by the National Research Council Day Fund, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, California Department of Water Resources, Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, and the Southern Nevada Water Authority.
Taking Stock of Critical Minerals
 The oil crisis of the 1970s called attention to the need for the government to collect and analyze data with frequency on the world's supply of energy sources and demand for them. However, there are nonfuel mineral resources also critical to the U.S. economy and national security that are not being monitored as carefully as necessary by either government or industry. These metallic and nonmetallic minerals are essential for laptops, cell phones, and thousands of other products we rely on every day. Two reports from the National Research Council offer advice on how to ensure an adequate supply of essential minerals, even in the event of a national emergency.
Minerals, Critical Minerals, and the U.S. Economy stresses the importance of government data collection and analysis to ensure secure supplies of certain minerals, many of which are not available domestically. The United States should have consistent information on minerals whose supply could be disrupted by various factors.
The report includes a matrix for assessing the importance and supply of critical minerals. Of those minerals examined, platinum group metals, indium, manganese, niobium, and rare earth elements are more critical than other minerals at this time because few or no substitutes exist for their essential uses and their supplies are potentially at risk.
Although the report covers only a limited number of minerals, the matrix developed could be adapted to make similar classifications for any mineral. The resulting analyses could then be used to guide broader data-collection and policy efforts to ensure adequate mineral supplies. The U.S. Geological Survey's Minerals Information Team collects such data, but the quantity and level of detail of its information has declined in recent years in response to a declining budget. Federal mineral data collection and analysis requires adequate resources, autonomy, and authority similar to those of the principal federal statistical agencies, to allow the nation to anticipate and attempt to mitigate restrictions in the mineral markets.
The U.S. Department of Defense also is being impeded by a lack of data on critical minerals, says Managing Materials for a 21st Century Military. The National Defense Stockpile, established just prior to World War II to ensure a supply of critical materials in case of a national emergency, is ineffective and has not kept pace with changes in the global marketplace or modern military needs, the report says.
The stockpile is required by law to hold strategic and critical materials to avoid dependence on foreign sources in event of war or other national emergency. Currently, the stockpile holds 21 such minerals, but the minerals being stored do not include many of those that the military is likely to actually need given current demands, the report says. In fact, billions of dollars worth of materials considered currently unnecessary have been sold from the stockpile in recent years. However, growing global competition for minerals and a fragmented supply chain could threaten the stockpile's ability to adequately supply materials needed for national defense.
Instead of trying to improve the current stockpile, the report calls for a new approach -- not a new bureaucratic organizational structure, but a whole system approach based on current geopolitics. Stocks may still be needed, but decisions about whether to maintain them should be tied to well-defined defense needs and assessments of risks to supply.
The critical minerals study was funded by the U.S. Geological Survey and the National Mining Association; the stockpile study was funded by the Defense National Stockpile Center of DOD's Defense Logistics Agency.
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