Report

Vaccines for the 21st Century: A Tool for Decisionmaking


Released:

This volume provides an analytic framework and quantitative model for evaluating disease conditions that can be applied by those setting priorities for vaccine development over the coming decades. The committee describes an approach for comparing potential new vaccines based on their impact on morbidity and mortality and on the costs of both health care and vaccine development. The book examines:

  • Lessons to be learned from the polio experience.
  • Scientific advances that set the stage for new vaccines.
  • Factors that affect how vaccines are used in the population.
  • Value judgments and ethical questions raised by comparison of health needs and benefits.

The committee provides a way to compare different forms of illness and set vaccine priorities without assigning a monetary value to lives.


Vaccine Candidate Spreadsheets

Note:

Use of the spreadsheet files requires familiarity with Excel. It is recommended that newer users familiarize themselves with the "simplified" Vaccine X files before trying to modify the files that represent the vaccine candidates discussed in the report.

There are notations on most sheets of each workbook indicating places where key variables can be changed. These notations are not complete but should help a user who has fundamental knowledge of both Excel and modeling exercises such as that presented in the report.

Hypothetical Vaccine X

The attached Microsoft Excel 5.0 files were used to develop the calculations for "Hypothetical Vaccine X" as illustrated in Table 4-3 of the report, Vaccines for the 21st Century: A Tool for Decisionmaking.

Vaccine Candidates

The attached Microsoft Excel 5.0 files were used to develop the calculations for the vaccine candidates discussed in the report and in the appendixes.