THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS    500 Fifth Street, NW    Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.

This study was supported by Contract HHM402-10-D-0036-DO#10 between the Department of the Army and the National Academy of Sciences. Any views or observations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-30216-6

International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-30216-1

Limited copies of this report are available from:

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COMMITTEE ON REVIEW OF ADVANCEMENTS IN ACTIVE ELECTRO-OPTICAL SYSTEMS TO AVOID TECHNOLOGICAL SURPRISE ADVERSE TO U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY

PAUL F. McMANAMON, University of Dayton, Chair

WALTER F. BUELL, The Aerospace Corporation, Vice Chair

MELISSA G. CHOI, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

JOHN W. DEVITT, Raytheon Vision Systems

ELSA GARMIRE, Dartmouth College

GARY W. KAMERMAN, FastMetrix, Inc.

KENNETH A. KRESS, KBK Consulting, Inc.

JEANETTE LURIER, Raytheon

PRADIP MITRA, DRS Technologies

PETER F. MOULTON, Q-Peak, Inc.

JONATHAN M. SMITH, University of Pennsylvania

ABBIE WATNIK, Naval Research Laboratory

ELI YABLONOVITCH, University of California, Berkeley

Staff

TERRY JAGGERS, Board Director

GREGORY EYRING, Study Director

DANIEL E.J. TALMAGE, JR., Program Officer

SARAH CAPOTE, Research Associate (until March 2013)

DIONNA ALI, Research Assistant

CHRIS JONES, Financial Associate

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Preface

In today’s world, the range of technologies with the potential to threaten the security of U.S. military forces is extremely broad. These include developments in explosive materials, sensors, control systems, robotics, satellite systems, and computing power, to name just a few. Such technologies have not only enhanced the capabilities of U.S. military forces, but also offer enhanced offensive capabilities to potential adversaries—either directly through the development of more sophisticated weapons, or more indirectly through opportunities for interrupting the function of defensive U.S. military systems. Passive and active electro-optical (EO) sensing technologies are prime examples.

In 2010, the National Research Council (NRC) published the report Seeing Photons: Progress and Limits of Visible and Infrared Sensor Arrays. That report focused on key passive sensor technologies and concluded that detector technology was nearing background-limited infrared photodetection (BLIP) for many tactical scenarios, and that therefore new detectors were unlikely to provide any “surprise” technologies.

This report builds upon and expands the scope of the 2010 report by considering the potential of active electro-optical (EO) technologies to create surprise; i.e., systems that use a source of visible or infrared light (typically but not always a laser) to interrogate a target in combination with sensitive detectors and processors to analyze the returned light. The addition of an interrogating light source to the system adds rich new phenomenologies that enable new capabilities to be explored.

In late 2011, the intelligence community, with the U.S. Army as the lead, approached the NRC to conduct a study to evaluate the potential of active EO systems to generate technological surprise. In response, the NRC formed the ad hoc Committee on Review of Advancements in Active Electro-Optical Systems to Avoid Technological Surprise Adverse to U.S. National Security, and the study contract was signed in September of 2012. The statement of task given to the committee is as follows:

A report will be authored by the committee addressing the foregoing tasks.

This has been a challenging effort because of the breadth of active EO sensing modalities and contributing technologies. A further complication is that discussion of military or dual-use applications of a technology is always limited by classification issues or other restrictions. The main body of this report is unclassified. Where possible we tried to use unclassified, publicly available sources to discuss the areas covered in the statement of task

This report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise in accordance with the procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the NRC. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of the report: Steven R. Brueck, University of New Mexico, Joseph Buck, Fieldcraft Scientific, Ronald G. Driggers, Naval Research Laboratory, James R. Fienup (NAE), University of Rochester, Robert Q. Fugate (NAE), New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, William Happer (NAS), Princeton University, Sumanth Kaushik, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, Dennis K. Killinger, University of South Florida, Paul D. Nielsen (NAE), Software Engineering Institute, and Julie J.C.H. Ryan, George Washington University,

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Edwin P. Przybylowicz, Eastman Kodak Company. Appointed by the NRC, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

The committee also thanks the NRC staff for its dedicated work, in particular Greg Eyring, the study director, and Dionna Ali, who managed the administrative and logistical aspects with grace and efficiency.

Paul McManamon, Chair

Walter Buell, Vice Chair

Committee on Review of Advancements in Active Electro-Optical Systems to Avoid Technological Surprise Adverse to U.S. National Security

Contents

Acronyms