TCRP OVERSIGHT AND PROJECT SELECTION COMMISSION*

CHAIR

Jeanne Krieg

Eastern Contra Costa Transit Authority (retired)

VICE CHAIR

Jameson Auten

Lane Transit District

SECRETARY/TREASURER

Ryan I. Daniel

St. Cloud Metro Bus

IMMEDIATE PAST CHAIR

Doran J. Barnes

Foothill Transit

MEMBERS

Andrea Burnside

Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority

Julia Castillo

Heart of Iowa Transit Authority

April Chan

San Mateo County Transit District

Desmond Cole

Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority

Carolyn Flowers

InfraStrategies LLC

David Harris

New Mexico Department of Transportation

Tim Healy

Sound Transit

Brendon Hemily

Hemily and Associates

Vince Huerta

East Texas Council of Governments

Joseph Leader

HDR

Benjamin Limmer

Connecticut Department of Transportation

Bacarra Mauldin

Consultant

Jessica Mefford-Miller

Valley Metro

Raymond Melleady

USSC Group

Brad Miller

Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority (PSTA)

Elizabeth Presutti

Charlotte Area Transit System

Catherine Rinaldi

Consultant

Jeffrey Rosenberg

Amalgamated Transit Union

Justin Stuehrenberg

Madison Metro Transit

Frank White, III

Kansas City Area Transportation Authority

Kimberly J. Williams

Metropolitan Transit Authority of Harris County

Nigel H.M. Wilson

MIT

EX OFFICIO MEMBERS

Victoria Sheehan

TRB

Paul P. Skoutelas

APTA

Jim Tymon

AASHTO

[Vacant]

FTA

Kristin White

FHWA

TOPS COMMISSION STAFF ADVISOR

Arthur L. Guzzetti

APTA

SECRETARY

Monique R. Evans

TRB

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2025 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE*

OFFICERS

CHAIR: Leslie S. Richards, Professor of Practice, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia

VICE CHAIR: Joel M. Jundt, Secretary of Transportation, South Dakota Department of Transportation, Pierre

EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR: Victoria Sheehan, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC

MEMBERS

James F. Albaugh, President and CEO, The Boeing Company (retired), Scottsdale, AZ

Carlos M. Braceras, Executive Director, Utah Department of Transportation, Salt Lake City

Douglas C. Ceva, Vice President, Customer Lead Solutions, Prologis, Inc., Jupiter, FL

Nancy Daubenberger, Commissioner of Transportation, Minnesota Department of Transportation, St. Paul

Marie Therese Dominguez, Commissioner, New York State Department of Transportation, Albany

Garrett Eucalitto, Commissioner, Connecticut Department of Transportation, Newington

Andrew Fremier, Executive Director, Metropolitan Transportation Commission, San Francisco, CA

Martha Grabowski, Professor Emerita, Information Systems, Le Moyne College, Madden College of Business & Economics, Cazenovia, NY

Randell Iwasaki, President and CEO, Iwasaki Consulting Services, Walnut Creek, CA

Carol A. Lewis, Professor, Transportation Studies, Texas Southern University, Houston

Hani S. Mahmassani, W.A. Patterson Distinguished Chair in Transportation; Director, Transportation Center, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL

Scott C. Marler, Director, Iowa Department of Transportation, Ames

Ricardo Martinez, Adjunct Professor of Emergency Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, Decatur, GA

Russell McMurry, Commissioner, Georgia Department of Transportation, Atlanta

Craig E. Philip, Research Professor and Director, VECTOR, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN

Steward T.A. Pickett, Distinguished Senior Scientist, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY

Susan A. Shaheen, Professor and Co-Director, Transportation Sustainability Research Center, University of California, Berkeley

Marc Williams, Executive Director, Texas Department of Transportation, Austin

EX OFFICIO MEMBERS

Michael R. Berube, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Sustainable Transportation, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC

Steven G. Bradbury, Deputy Secretary, U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, DC

Steven Cliff, Executive Officer, California Air Resources Board, Sacramento

LeRoy Gishi, Chief, Division of Transportation, Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S. Department of the Interior, Germantown, MD

Firas Ibrahim, Director, Office of Research, Development, and Technology, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology (OST-R), Washington, DC

Jason Kelly, Deputy Commanding General for Civil Works and Emergency Operations, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, DC

Sandra Knight, President, WaterWonks, LLC, Washington, DC

Ben Kochman, Acting Administrator, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, Washington, DC

Zahra “Niloo” Parvinashtiani, Engineer, Mobility Consultant Solutions, Iteris Inc., Fairfax, VA, and Chair, TRB Young Members Coordinating Council

Chris Rocheleau, Acting Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration, Washington, DC

Gloria Shepherd, Acting Deputy Administrator, Federal Highway Administration, Washington, DC

Karl Simon, Director, Transportation and Climate Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC

Paul P. Skoutelas, President and CEO, American Public Transportation Association, Washington, DC

Jim Tymon, Executive Director, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, DC

___________________

^* Membership as of May 2025.

^* Membership as of May 2025.

TRANSIT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM

TCRP RESEARCH REPORT 254

The Future of Commuter Rail
in North America

Paul Lewis

Leo Shirky

DB E.C.O. NORTH AMERICA

Washington, DC

Subject Areas

Public Transportation • Railroads • Passenger Transportation

Research sponsored by the Federal Transit Administration in cooperation with the American Public Transportation Association

TRANSIT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM

The nation’s growth and the need to meet mobility, environmental, and energy objectives place demands on public transit systems. Current systems, some of which are old and in need of upgrading, must expand service area, increase service frequency, and improve efficiency to serve these demands. Research is necessary to solve operating problems, adapt appropriate new technologies from other industries, and introduce innovations into the transit industry. The Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP) serves as one of the principal means by which the transit industry can develop innovative near-term solutions to meet demands placed on it.

The need for TCRP was originally identified in TRB Special Report 213—Research for Public Transit: New Directions, published in 1987 and based on a study sponsored by the Urban Mass Transportation Administration—now the Federal Transit Administration (FTA). A report by the American Public Transportation Association (APTA), Transportation 2000, also recognized the need for local, problem-solving research. TCRP, modeled after the successful National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP), undertakes research and other technical activities in response to the needs of transit service providers. The scope of TCRP includes various transit research fields including planning, service configuration, equipment, facilities, operations, human resources, maintenance, policy, and administrative practices.

TCRP was established under FTA sponsorship in July 1992. Proposed by the U.S. Department of Transportation, TCRP was authorized as part of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA). On May 13, 1992, a memorandum agreement outlining TCRP operating procedures was executed by the three cooperating organizations: FTA; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, acting through the Transportation Research Board (TRB); and APTA. APTA is responsible for forming the independent governing board, designated as the TCRP Oversight and Project Selection (TOPS) Commission.

Research problem statements for TCRP are solicited periodically but may be submitted to TRB by anyone at any time. It is the responsibility of the TOPS Commission to formulate the research program by identifying the highest priority projects. As part of the evaluation, the TOPS Commission defines funding levels and expected products.

Once selected, each project is assigned to an expert panel appointed by TRB. The panels prepare project statements (requests for proposals), select contractors, and provide technical guidance and counsel throughout the life of the project. The process for developing research problem statements and selecting research agencies has been used by TRB in managing cooperative research programs since 1962. As in other TRB activities, TCRP project panels serve voluntarily without compensation.

Because research cannot have the desired effect if products fail to reach the intended audience, special emphasis is placed on disseminating TCRP results to the intended users of the research: transit agencies, service providers, and suppliers. TRB provides a series of research reports, syntheses of transit practice, and other supporting material developed by TCRP research. APTA will arrange for workshops, training aids, field visits, and other activities to ensure that results are implemented by urban and rural transit industry practitioners.

TCRP provides a forum where transit agencies can cooperatively address common operational problems. TCRP results support and complement other ongoing transit research and training programs.

TCRP RESEARCH REPORT 254

Project J-11/Task 45

ISSN 2572-3782

ISBN 978-0-309-99266-4

Digital Object Identifier: 10.17226/29128

© 2025 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and the graphical logo are trademarks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

COPYRIGHT INFORMATION

Authors herein are responsible for the originality and accuracy of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein.

The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) grants permission to reproduce written material in this publication for classroom and non-commercial purposes subject to the rights of any third parties and appropriate attribution. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply NAS, TRB, AASHTO, APTA, FAA, FHWA, FTA, GHSA, or NHTSA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. For other uses of the written material, users must request permission from the National Academies Press.

NOTICE

The research report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.

This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Transportation, FTA, in the interest of information exchange. The U.S. government assumes no liability for the contents or use thereof. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed or implied in this document are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; or the program sponsors.

The Transportation Research Board does not develop, issue, or publish standards or specifications. The Transportation Research Board manages applied research projects which provide the scientific foundation that may be used by Transportation Research Board sponsors, industry associations, or other organizations as the basis for revised practices, procedures, or specifications.

The Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; and the sponsors of the Transit Cooperative Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names or logos appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report.

Published research reports of the

TRANSIT COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM

are available from

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The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. Tsu-Jae Liu is president.

The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president.

The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine.

Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.

The Transportation Research Board is one of seven major program divisions of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The mission of the Transportation Research Board is to mobilize expertise, experience, and knowledge to anticipate and solve complex transportation-related challenges. The Board’s varied activities annually engage about 8,500 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. The program is supported by state departments of transportation, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation.

Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org.

COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAMS

CRP STAFF FOR TCRP RESEARCH REPORT 254

Monique R. Evans, Director, Cooperative Research Programs

Waseem Dekelbab, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs

Gwen Chisholm Smith, Manager, Transit Cooperative Research Program

Dianne S. Schwager, Senior Program Officer

Sheila A. Moore, Program Associate

Natalie Barnes, Director of Publications

Heather DiAngelis, Associate Director of Publications

TCRP PROJECT J-11/TASK 45 PANEL

Field of Special Projects

Louis Millan, New Jersey Transit Corporation, Newark, NJ (Chair)

Jesse Elam, Cook County Department of Transportation and Highways, Chicago, IL

KellyAnne Gallagher, Commuter Rail Coalition, Alexandria, VA

Sharon Greene, InfraStrategies LLC, Laguna Beach, CA

Kimberly Denise Haynes-Slaughter, SYSTRA, New York, NY

Curtis A. Morgan, Texas A&M Transportation Institute, College Station, TX

Martita L. Mullen, Homewood, IL

David O. Nelson, Jacobs, Boston, MA

Katie Persons, North County Transit District, Oceanside, CA

Nicolas Ruiz, Virginia Railway Express, Alexandria, VA

Daniel Wu, San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit, Oakland, CA

Donna Iken, FTA Liaison

Edwina Smallwood, FRA Liaison

Matthew Dickens, APTA Liaison

Andrew Bata, International Association for Public Transit Liaison

Simon Pierre Minelli, Canadian Urban Transit Association Liaison

FOREWORD

By Dianne S. Schwager

Staff Officer

Transportation Research Board

TCRP Research Report 254: The Future of Commuter Rail in North America presents practical and implementable strategies to support the recovery of commuter rail services from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The report examines how commuter rail providers can navigate the market, service, and funding challenges they will face in the coming years and decades. This report is of immediate use to the leadership and staff of commuter rail providers and can also inform funders, elected officials, other decision-makers, and stakeholders interested in regional mobility.

Beginning in March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic and the ability of many office workers to work from home seriously affected ridership on commuter rail services. Although public transportation ridership has partially recovered since the height of the pandemic, passenger counts for most commuter rail services remain below the 2019 levels. Commuter rail providers are facing challenges to redefine themselves to serve a broader array of passenger markets and improve integration with other public transportation services.

Under TCRP Project J-11/Task 45, “Future of Commuter Rail in North America,” DB E.C.O. North America was tasked to conduct research to identify practical and implementable strategies for commuter rail providers in North America that will facilitate recovery from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, manage their transformation, and enable continued relevance. This research was built on a review of historical and current literature; data from public sources to understand trends and context for the various commuter rail systems; interviews with experts and practitioners, including transportation agency staff and board members, labor representatives, elected officials, consultants, planners, and operations teams; six case studies of U.S. commuter rail agencies focused on specific strategies and emerging practices; and a review of regional rail models in Germany.

For providers to assess their market, operations, and capacity to understand how they can transform their services to ensure their continued relevance in the future, best practices recommend providers follow a three-part, iterative strategic planning process tailored to the unique nature of commuter rail, given its fixed infrastructure, historical agreements, and financial position. The planning process needs to integrate market information with service innovation options in a manner that recognizes and responds to challenges in governance, infrastructure, and funding. These factors also need to fit into regional mobility discussions: This process should be a part of understanding what broad mobility goals a region has and determining what the role of commuter rail is in achieving those goals.

CONTENTS

Summary

Chapter 1 Introduction and Scope

1.1 Defining Commuter Rail

1.2 Commuter Rail versus Regional Rail

Chapter 2 History of Commuter Rail

2.1 Private Sector Commuter Rail Services

2.2 Public Support for Commuter Rail Services

2.3 Turn-of-the-Century Commuter Rail Ridership Growth

2.4 COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts on Commuter Rail

2.5 The Modern Market for Commuter Rail Services

2.6 Future Markets for Commuter Rail Services

Chapter 3 Overview of Commuter Rail Systems Today

Chapter 4 Commuter Rail Industry Parameters

4.1 Institutional Considerations: Who Owns, Operates, and Funds Commuter Rail Services?

4.2 Financial Considerations: What Are Commuter Service Costs, and Who Pays?

Chapter 5 North American Case Studies

5.1 Timetable Change and Its Effect on Ridership: MBTA Commuter Rail

5.2 Implementing a New Fare Policy: Metra Commuter Rail

5.3 Electrification of Commuter Rail: Caltrain

5.4 Overcoming Funding and Institutional Barriers to Making Timetable Changes: Metrolink

5.5 Operational Readiness for Future Schedule Implementation: FrontRunner

5.6 Developing Strategies for Transit-Oriented Development: CTDOT Commuter Rail

Chapter 6 Inspiration from Abroad: Germany’s S-Bahn and Regionalbahn Systems

6.1 German Regional Rail Structure and Context

6.2 Lessons for North America

6.3 Summary

Chapter 7 Implementation Strategies

7.1 Understanding the Addressable Markets for Commuter Rail

7.2 Altering Service to Address the Travel Market

7.3 Managing Infrastructure Capacity

7.4 Future Research Needs

Chapter 8 Conclusions

References and Bibliography

Endnotes