The Air Traffic Controller Workforce Imperative: Staffing Models and Their Implementation to Ensure Safe and Efficient Airspace Operations (2025)
Chapter: 7 Anticipating Future Demands on Facility Staffing
7
Anticipating Future Demands on Facility Staffing
This chapter addresses the item in the committee’s charge that asks it to “Identify future needs of the air traffic control system and their potential impacts on controller staffing requirements and planning, including developments such as the integration of new users, technologies, and procedures.” Given the time necessary to recruit and train controllers, effective staffing modeling and plans must consider potential changes to National Airspace System (NAS) operations many years in advance. Some of these changes are straightforward to incorporate into a staffing model, as they are simply a result of predicted growth in the number of flight operations or shifts in the geographic distribution of flight operations for conventional traffic. This could include a simple increase or decrease in the number of flight operations for a facility, such as with the recent increase in traffic demand in Florida.
However, controller staffing needs may also be impacted by significant changes in the nature or method of controlling traffic in the NAS, such as new types of flying vehicles beginning to operate or the introduction of new procedures and technologies. These changes will need to be translated into an increase or decrease in the required number of controllers for a facility. With suitable analysis and simulation, changes in the estimates for task load for various tasks used for the FAA Office of Finance and Management (AFN) models may capture some of these impacts; this translation may require expert judgment or modeling that is outside the scope of the existing staffing models in order to provide estimates that can be incorporated into the staffing requirements.
The introduction of new technologies and procedures, with associated new skill requirements, will also increase the amount of required training
time needed for the development of new controller skills, which must also be accounted for in the staffing models to the extent that Certified Professional Controllers (CPCs) need additional training and to the extent that CPCs need to support this skill development as trainers. It should be noted, however, that the incorporation of new capabilities for training, such as the use of virtual and augmented reality and the development of more advanced training simulation capabilities, would need to be considered in evaluating impacts on training time.
This chapter begins by discussing potential future changes that may affect demand for controllers such as new entrants into the airspace that may impact controller staffing, potential use of Virtual Towers and their adoption by FAA, and advances in technology that could affect controller performance in ways that improve safety. Before the final section with the committee’s conclusion and recommendation, the committee mentions the value of scenario planning as a technique to assist FAA in anticipating and preparing for future changes. The final two sections offer concluding thoughts and the committee’s findings and recommendations.
NEW ENTRANTS
The expected development of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM)/Urban Air Mobility to move cargo and passengers over relatively short distances (10–100 nm) using electric or hybrid-electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing technology is an example of a new entrant that could have implications for controller staffing. Additional flights through controlled airspace that require interaction with air traffic control will impact controller workload. This could include clearance to depart, flight following (even when a flight is on a Visual Flight Rules route through Class B and C airspace), coordination with a local vertiport or Provider of Services to UAM, and communication and control of aircraft that need to complete a go-around, enter and exit a holding pattern, or divert. As AAM/UAM matures, flight volumes are expected to be significant, leading to an increase in controller workload. This additional traffic may be assigned to an existing helicopter/VFR position at a facility, but the expected time on task at this position is likely to be significantly higher.
Efforts are under way to define the details of AAM/UAM operations at specific airports, including simulation studies at the FAA William J. Hughes Technical Center for Advanced Aerospace in Atlantic City. As these operations are more clearly defined, including the tasking of ATC, predictions need to be made regarding the staffing requirements for CPCs. The details of the AAM/UAM Concept of Operations that will be adopted in practice are yet to be determined and will not be identical for all urban areas. This makes such predictions a challenge, but predictions must be made to support decisions about future controller staffing and training.
USE OF VIRTUAL TOWERS
The potential use of Virtual Towers staffed by FAA controllers is another example of a new technology that may impact ATC staffing. There is already considerable data on the design and operation of such capabilities based on live use throughout Europe as well as test operations in the United States. The impact on staffing depends in part on the use cases eventually approved for use in the United States. Initial approval is expected at airports that do not currently have air traffic services, which clearly increases the need for additional controllers, but which may not require controllers staffed by FAA (they might be used at Federal Contract Towers, whose controllers are not FAA personnel). Virtual technologies could first be applied to remote or Contract Towers and then migrate, as appropriate, to wider use at FAA-staffed Towers. Some jurisdictions—notably, the State of Colorado—would like to combine operations for several nearby airports, which may reduce the total number of controllers compared to having two separate traditional Towers. A simple example is overnight coverage at two low-activity airports: where normally four controllers—two at each facility—would be required overnight. At a combined virtual facility two controllers could conceivably monitor and manage traffic at both airports during the low-traffic nighttime hours. During a visit to the FAA Technical Center at Atlantic City, the committee was also told that airports that are expanding (such as Denver) may utilize Virtual Tower equipment (once certified by FAA) in lieu of constructing a second traditional Tower. This would still require additional controllers, but the number of additional controllers necessary may be less than a second traditional Tower, as existing controllers may be able to cover some of the functions using the additional monitoring equipment.
For the purposes of predicting future staffing needs for FAA, two things are required:
- estimates regarding the use of FAA-staffed Virtual Towers in the United States over some future time frame; and
- a rigorous assessment of the impact of Virtual Towers on CPC staffing.
NEW WORK RULES FOR CONTROLLERS
Over time, FAA initiates new work rules for controllers. For example, facilities are generally required to be staffed with at least two controllers at all times. Additionally, new work schedule requirements to combat fatigue are being implemented as described in Chapter 3. When such changes arise, their impacts on scheduling and associated staffing need to be determined and integrated into staffing model estimates.
COMPLEMENTING SUFFICIENT ATC STAFFING WITH ADDITIONAL SAFEGUARDS1
Enhancing safety in line with Reason’s “Swiss Cheese” model (Reason et al. 2006) requires a comprehensive approach beyond merely ensuring adequate ATC staffing. A human-system system-of-systems approach should be considered to support addressing ATC staffing standards. This includes integrating new technologies for the flight deck, airline dispatchers, air traffic flow managers, and ATC. Furthermore, developing safer airspace and route designs can also provide an extra layer of protection against incidents and accidents.
The human-system system-of-systems approach recognizes the complex interplay between human operators and technological systems within the broader aviation ecosystem. By considering the interactions and dependencies among various subsystems, this approach ensures that all elements work harmoniously to enhance overall safety and efficiency. It emphasizes the importance of incorporating human factors considerations into ATC staffing models, such as workload management, while considering how best to leverage advanced technologies to support and augment human performance. For example, technology solutions such as Enhanced Traffic Collision Avoidance System provide real-time alerts to pilots about nearby aircraft, enabling evasive maneuvers to avoid collisions. In addition, Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) transmit an aircraft’s position, speed, and other data to both ground stations and other aircraft, enhancing Safety Assurance (SA) of the airspace. Adoption and integration of ADS-B could help ensure all aircraft, including military, are visible to both ATCs and other pilots, minimizing blind spots. This holistic human-system systems-of-systems perspective is essential for creating a resilient and adaptive ATC system that can effectively respond to dynamic operational challenges. By integrating ATC staffing models and advanced technologies, this approach not only optimizes ATC staffing standards but also enhances the overall safety and efficiency of air traffic management.
Real-time sensor data provides up-to-the-minute information on various aspects of air traffic, including aircraft positions, weather conditions, and system performance. These data allow for more accurate and timely decision-making, enabling air traffic controllers to respond swiftly to changing conditions and potential hazards. Data analytics, on the other hand, involves processing and analyzing this vast amount of data to identify patterns, trends, and insights. By leveraging advanced analytics techniques, such as machine learning and predictive modeling, it may be possible to
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1 This section was revised after release of the report to clarify that changes in technology would not affect facility staffing standards in real time.
forecast traffic volumes, predict potential bottlenecks, and assess the impact of different staffing levels on overall human-system performance. This information can be used to dynamically adjust staffing levels, ensuring that the right number of controllers are available to manage traffic efficiently and safely. Together, real-time sensor data and data analytics can enhance SA, improve resource allocation, and support proactive management of ATC operations. This integration can contribute to a more resilient and adaptive ATC system, capable of handling the complexities of modern air traffic management.
Finally, the development of new, safer airspace and route designs is another critical component in enhancing aviation safety. By redesigning airspace and routes to minimize congestion and reduce conflict points, the likelihood of incidents and accidents can be significantly decreased. These designs can incorporate advanced navigation technologies and procedures, such as Performance-Based Navigation, which allows aircraft to fly more direct routes using satellite-based navigation systems, and Required Navigation Performance, which specifies the required level of accuracy for an aircraft’s navigation performance, ensuring it stays within a defined airspace corridor. The precision provided by these technologies enables more efficient use of airspace, reduces the risk of midair collisions, and minimizes the need for ATCs to intervene. Additionally, optimizing airspace structure and route planning can improve traffic flow management, reduce controller workload, and enhance overall human-system resilience. This proactive approach to airspace and route design adds another layer of protection, contributing to a safer and more reliable ATC system.
In summary, a multifaceted strategy that integrates ATC staffing models with a human-system systems-of-systems approach, real-time sensor data, data analytics, and innovative airspace and route design would help optimize ATC staffing standards and enhance overall aviation safety.
SCENARIO PLANNING
The operation of the NAS will continue to evolve over time. Some of these changes will have implications for controller staffing. Given the lead time for training controllers, whether the concern is the integration of new entrants, the introduction of new technologies to support controller tasks, changes in work rules or simply changes in the volume or complexity of flight operations at particular facilities, these changes need to be predicted years ahead of time and their potential impacts on controller staffing must also be predicted. In many cases, these predictions will be outside of the scope of existing approaches to estimating future controller staffing
requirements. However, such predictions are necessary therefore appropriate estimation techniques need to be defined and applied.
Scenario planning is a widely used technique that does not attempt to make predictions; rather, it relies on expert judgment about emerging trends to develop strategies that enhance the ability of organizations to be prepared for the threats or opportunities emerging trends may present. FAA’s current staffing models are well suited for their purpose, as updated per the committee’s recommendations in Chapter 4, but they are static in the sense that they do not actively plan for and incorporate upcoming changes in technologies or procedures. The committee does not believe FAA is using scenario planning to assist the agency in preparing for the controller workforce it may require in the future; scenario planning would be a valuable addition to its existing staffing planning. Fortunately for FAA, experienced former agency executives and experts from the aviation sector more broadly have been often called on by the agency to assist it with the challenges it faces. Such experts have responded to these requests and often provided sage advice. The reports of the Safety Review Team (SRT 2023) and the Scientific Expert Panel on Air Traffic Controller Safety, Work Hours, and Health (Rosekind et al. 2024) cited in previous chapters are but two recent examples.
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
Conclusion 7-1: Future controller staffing needs may be impacted due to new entrants in the NAS, the adoption of new technologies, such as Virtual Towers, new work rules for controllers, and efforts to add additional safeguards to ATC systems. These impacts are not predicted in the current staffing models and will require additional predictions to be made by FAA.
Recommendation 7-1: FAA needs to periodically:
- query the relevant organizations in FAA and aviation industry regarding their expectations about future changes in the operation of the NAS. This includes a focus on ATC staffing requirements based on foreseen introduction of new entrants as well as new procedures and supporting technologies associated with NAS modernization;
- determine which of these changes can be expected to influence the work demands of CPCs, CPCs-In Training, and Developmental Controllers;
- engage outside experts to assist it in scenario planning to better anticipate for and respond to emerging trends; and
- determine whether and how such changes can be expected to influence controller staffing needs for the affected facilities and predict the magnitude of these changes over time.
It should be noted that some changes to the operation of the NAS, such as the introduction of Surface Collaborative Demand Management within Terminal Flight Demand Management, may result in an increase in the staffing needs for traffic managers. Because these traffic managers are CPCs who would move into this new management position, estimated staffing requirements for future CPCs to serve such demand need to consider this when estimating attrition from the CPC workforce as described in Chapter 5.
REFERENCES
Reason, J., E. Hollnagel, and J. Paries. 2006. “Revisiting the ‘Swiss Cheese’ Model of Accidents.” Journal of Clinical Engineering 27:110–115.
Rosekind, M., E. Flynn-Evans, and C. Czeisler. 2024. “Assessing Fatigue Risk in FAA Air Traffic Operations: Report by Scientific Expert Panel on Air Traffic Controller Safety, Work Hours, and Health.” https://www.faa.gov/newsroom/media/Fatigue_Report.pdf.
SRT (Safety Review Team). 2023. “National Airspace System Safety Review Team: Discussion and Recommendations to Address Risk in the National Airspace System.” Federal Aviation Administration, November. https://www.faa.gov/NAS_safety_review_team_report.pdf.
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