Completed
This study will review the future of computing beyond exascale to meet national security needs at the National Nuclear Security Administration. (Exascale refers to a computer that performs 10^18 floating point operations per second.) It will consider future computing technologies for meeting those needs including quantum computing and other novel hardware, computer architecture, and software; the likely trajectory of relevant hardware and software technologies; and the ability of the U.S. industrial base to meet NNSA's needs.
Featured publication
Consensus
·2023
In 2022, the United States installed its first exascale computing system for the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science, with an National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) system scheduled for 2023. The DOE Exascale Computing Project (ECP)2 has developed new applications capabilities, par...
View details
Description
As requested in section 3172 of the FY 2021 National Defense Authorization Act, an ad hoc committee of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine will conduct a consensus study "reviewing the future of computing beyond exascale computing to meet national security needs at the National Nuclear Security Administration." (Exascale refers to a computer that performs near or above 10^18 floating point operations per second.)
The study will review:
(1) NNSA's computing needs over the next 20 years that exascale computing will not support;
(2) Future computing technologies for meeting those needs including quantum computing and other novel hardware, computer architecture, and software;
(3) The likely trajectory of promising hardware and software technologies and obstacles to their development and their deployment by NNSA; and
(4) The ability of the U.S. industrial base, including personnel and microelectronics capabilities, to meet NNSA's needs.
The work will be carried out in parallel unclassified and classified tracks. The full committee will gather information, deliberate, and develop its report on an entirely unclassified basis.
In considering item (1) above, the committee will coordinate its work with the work of the committee for the soon-to-be-launched congressionally mandated and NNSA-sponsored Assessment of High Energy Density Physics (DEPS-BPA-20-04). This coordination will be performed by the respective project staff, and to the extent feasible, through overlapping committee memberships and/or designated committee liaisons.
A separately appointed and appropriately cleared small subset of the full study committee will commence its work at approximately the midpoint of the study. It will review pertinent classified information relating to NNSA's future computing needs. It will prepare an internal working document that will be submitted to NNSA for unclassified/public release and provided to the full study committee to inform its work.
The study committee will prepare an unclassified public report and the cleared subset of the committee will prepare a classified annex as deemed appropriate.
Contributors
Committee
Chair
Member
Member
Member
Member
Member
Member
Member
Member
Member
Member
Member
Conflict of Interest Disclosure
The conflict of interest policy of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (http://www.nationalacademies.org/coi) prohibits the appointment of an individual to a committee authoring a Consensus Study Report if the individual has a conflict of interest that is relevant to the task to be performed. An exception to this prohibition is permitted if the National Academies determines that the conflict is unavoidable and the conflict is publicly disclosed. A determination of a conflict of interest for an individual is not an assessment of that individual’s actual behavior or character or ability to act objectively despite the conflicting interest.
Dr. Charlie McMillan was determined to have a conflict of interest because of his compensated service on advisory boards to the NNSA weapons labs - Los Alamos National Lab and Sandia National Lab. At Los Alamos, McMillan serves on the Weapons Capability Review Committee. At Sandia, McMillan chairs the external review committee for Radiation Electronics and High Energy Density Science. The National Academies determined that the experience and expertise of the individual was needed for the committee to accomplish the task for which it was established. The National Academies could not find another available individual with the equivalent experience and expertise who did not have a conflict of interest. Therefore, the National Academies concluded that the conflict was unavoidable and publicly disclosed it on its website (www.nationalacademies.org).
Dr. Karen Willcox was determined to have a conflict of interest because of her compensated service on advisory boards to the NNSA weapons labs - Sandia National Lab and Los Alamos National Lab. At Sandia, Willcox serves on the external review board for the Computing and Information Sciences (CIS) Research Foundation. At Los Alamos, Willcox serves on the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) Advisory Board. The National Academies determined that the experience and expertise of the individual was needed for the committee to accomplish the task for which it was established. The National Academies could not find another available individual with the equivalent experience and expertise who did not have a conflict of interest. Therefore, the National Academies concluded that the conflict was unavoidable and publicly disclosed it on its website (www.nationalacademies.org).
Committee Membership Roster Comments
Marvin Adams resigned from the committee following his nomination to be Deputy Administrator for Defense Programs of the National Nuclear Security Administration effective 12/16/2021.
John B. Bell (NAS) was added to the committee effective 1/26/2022.
Sponsors
Department of Energy
Staff
Tho Nguyen
Lead
Gabrielle Risica
Shenae Bradley
