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Tsunami Warning and Preparedness explores the advances made and challenges that still remain in tsunami detection and preparedness. The book describes areas of research and development that would improve tsunami education, preparation, and detection, especially with tsunamis that arrive less than an hour after the triggering event. It asserts that seamless coordination between the two Tsunami Warning Centers and clear communications to local officials and the public could create a timely and effective response for coastal communities at risk for a tsunami.
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Consensus
·2011
Many coastal areas of the United States are at risk for tsunamis. After the catastrophic 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean, legislation was passed to expand U.S. tsunami warning capabilities. Since then, the nation has made progress in several related areas on both the federal and state levels. At th...
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Description
The committee will review progress towards tsunami preparedness in response to “Tsunami Risk Reduction for the United States” (National Science and Technology Council, December 2005) and the Tsunami Warning and Education Act (P.L. 109-424, December 2006). The NSTC report, spurred by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, called for a broad range of federal, state, and local efforts to reduce future losses from tsunamis in the United States. P.L. 109-424 authorized improvements to tsunami warning systems, community-based hazard mitigation programs, public education, scientific research, and international coordination. The committee’s task is divided into two parts as described below.To fulfill the congressional request in P.L. 109-424, the committee will review the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Tsunami Program and assess progress and improvements made since 2005 to strengthen the existing U.S. tsunami detection, forecast, and warning system. The committee will examine the effectiveness of this system for both near- and far-source tsunamigenic events, including:• Modeling of tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation• Forecast accuracy, warning notification, and dissemination• Reliability of observing and monitoring networks • Strategies to ensure long-term operational reliability and sustainability• Data quality control, management, archiving, and dissemination• Data acquisition, processing, and assessment for warning generation• Further modernization and geographic coverage needs• Probabilistic assessments of tsunami hazard that include data on the sizes and recurrence intervals of submarine earthquakes and landslides near U.S. shoreso Level of coordination and integration with:o State and local level tsunami programs for facilitating mitigationo United States ocean and coastal observation systems, including the Integrated Ocean Observing System o Global observing systems, including the Global Earth Observing System of Systems• Priority areas of targeted research and development in the U.S. to improve performance and guide modernization effortsIn its assessment, the committee will consider measures in the tsunami detection, forecast, and warning program implemented and planned by NOAA under the Tsunami Warning and Education Act (P.L. 109-424). In addition, the committee will provide a general overview of national preparedness, based on existing compilations and national assessments including topics such as the following: • Adequacy of federal coordination and integration with state and local level tsunami programs for facilitating mitigation• Approaches to risk assessment that account for such things as levels and trends in human populations, economic assets, and critical facilities within tsunami-inundation zones • Availability of evacuation maps, routes, and structures • Education and outreach for children, adults, and touristsThe committee will examine a few federal, state, and local mitigation and education activities, including the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program and TsunamiReady Program, to include as specific examples in their overview of the nation’s ability to reduce losses of life and property from future tsunamis.The committee will comment on how to optimize instrumental warning with these other elements of tsunami preparedness to serve the needs of end-users. The report will highlight opportunities to improve the nation’s tsunami preparedness in the future and identify novel, promising approaches to risk assessment and instrumental warning systems.The project is sponsored by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the University of Alaska, Fairbanks (UAF), and the National Academies. The approximate start date for the project is 11/01/2007. A report is expected to be issued by the end of the project in approximately 26 months
Contributors
Committee
Chair
Vice Chair
Member
Member
Member
Member
Member
Douglas. S. Luther
Member
Member
Member
Emile A. Okal
Member
Member
Member
Member
Conflict of Interest Disclosure
Disclosure of Conflict of Interest: Mr. Hugh Milburn
In accordance with Section 15 of the Federal Advisory Committee Act, the “Academy shall make its best efforts to ensure that no individual appointed to serve on [a] committee has a conflict of interest that is relevant to the functions to be performed, unless such conflict is promptly and publicly disclosed and the Academy determines that the conflict is unavoidable.” A conflict of interest refers to an interest, ordinarily financial, of an individual that could be directly affected by the work of the committee. As specified in the Academy’s policy and procedures (http://www.nationalacademies.org/coi/index.html), an objective determination is made for each provisionally appointed committee member whether or not a conflict of interest exists given the facts of the individual’s financial and other interests and the task being undertaken by the committee. A determination of conflict of interest for an individual is not an assessment of that individual’s actual behavior or character or ability to act objectively despite the conflicting interest.
We have concluded that for the committee to accomplish the tasks for which it was established, its membership must include among others: members who have practical knowledge of the engineering of ocean observing systems, particularly tsunami detection systems.
To meet the need for this expertise and experience, Mr. Hugh Milburn is proposed for appointment to the committee even though we have concluded that he has a conflict of interest because he is named on a patent for the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) system, stands to benefit financially if DART buoys are built and sold by a private company, and buoys for tsunami warning systems are under review by the study committee.
As his biographical summary makes clear, Mr. Milburn is an expert in the development of ocean observing systems for research and operations. His expertise covers various technical aspects of these systems, from mooring to sensor development. He is also one of the few ocean engineers with extensive knowledge of the DART system, a key component of the tsunami warning system which the committee has been asked to review. His knowledge of and hands-on experience with the DART system will be a crucial component in addressing the study tasks. In addition, he brings a deep-water ocean science perspective that is necessary to balance the committee composition. We believe that Mr. Milburn can serve effectively as a member of the committee, and that the committee can produce an objective report, taking into account the composition of the committee, the work to be performed, and the procedures to be followed in completing the work.
After an extensive search, we have been unable to find another individual who has the equivalent combination of professional experiences and scientific expertise and credentials as Mr. Milburn who does not have a similar conflict of interest. Therefore, we have concluded that this conflict is unavoidable.
Committee Membership Roster Comments
There were changes to the committee membership with the resignations of Dr. Emile Okal in April 2010 and Dr. Douglas Luther in August 2010.
Sponsors
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Staff
Claudia Mengelt
Lead
Major units and sub-units
Division on Earth and Life Studies
Lead
Ocean Studies Board
Lead