An ad hoc committee will provide an independent review of the potential environmental effects and socio-economic consequences that could unfold in the weeks-to-decades following nuclear wars. It will explore scenarios ranging from small-scale regional nuclear exchanges to large-scale exchanges between major powers. The study will consider non-fallout atmospheric, terrestrial, and marine effects and their consequences, including changes in climate and weather patterns, airborne particulate concentrations, stratospheric ozone, agriculture, and their impacts on ecosystems.
The committee will conduct the study in two phases, which will proceed in parallel.
Phase 1: The first phase will require access to classified information, and thus may involve only those members of the committee who have necessary clearances. An interim report (classified version, and unclassified summary) will be produced addressing the following elements of the task:
1. Evaluate the modeling and assumptions that may be used to generate the source terms for particulates and other material released or mobilized into the atmosphere as a result of nuclear detonations.
The unclassified summary of the interim report will use a parametric approach to present results, and will not include information about specific scenarios.
Phase 2: The second phase will be fully unclassified, using the unclassified summary of Phase 1 as input where needed. A final report of the committee will be issued, addressing the following:
2. A representative set of explosive yields, general type, and number of nuclear weapons.
3. Review the understanding of and tools for simulating the characteristics of fires such explosions may cause and quantity and characteristics of soot and other material mobilized by the explosions.
4. Review the understanding of and tools for simulating the characteristics and mechanisms for transport of the source material to the troposphere and stratosphere including the quantities, altitudes, and durations of the flow of materials.
5. Review the understanding of and tools for simulating the climate and environmental effects of nuclear explosions months to decades after the event, at regional to global scales.
6. Review the understanding of and methods to estimate the socio-economic consequences of environmental effects from such nuclear explosion events including implications for agriculture, terrestrial and marine ecosystem services, and human health.
7. Discuss the capabilities and limitations of the models above, including:
(A) Identification of the relevant uncertainties;
(B) listing of the key data gaps; and
(C) recommendations for how such models can be improved to better inform decision making.