Completed
Sea-level rise poses enormous risks to valuable infrastructure, development, and wetlands along the shorelines of California, Oregon, and Washington. The three states requested updated, regional projections of sea-level rise by the National Research Council. Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future explains that sea level along the U.S. west coast is affected by multiple factors, including climate patterns, effects from melting ice sheets, and geologic processes.
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Consensus
ยท2012
Tide gauges show that global sea level has risen about 7 inches during the 20th century, and recent satellite data show that the rate of sea-level rise is accelerating. As Earth warms, sea levels are rising mainly because ocean water expands as it warms; and water from melting glaciers and ice sheet...
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Description
The committee will provide an evaluation of sea level rise for California, Oregon, and Washington for the years 2030, 2050 and 2100. The evaluation will cover both global and local sea level rise. In particular, the committee will:
1. Evaluate each of the major contributors to global sea level rise (e.g., ocean thermal expansion, melting of glaciers and ice sheets); combine the contributions to provide values or a range of values of global sea level rise for the years 2030, 2050, and 2100; and evaluate the uncertainties associated with these values for each timeframe.
2. Characterize and, where possible, provide specific values for the regional and local contributions to sea level rise (e.g., atmospheric changes influencing ocean winds, ENSO [El Nino-Southern Oscillation] effects on ocean surface height, coastal upwelling and currents, storminess, coastal land motion caused by tectonics, sediment loading, or aquifer withdrawal) for the years 2030, 2050 and 2100. Different types of coastal settings will be examined, taking into account factors such as landform (e.g., estuaries, wetlands, beaches, lagoons, cliffs), geologic substrate (e.g., unconsolidated sediments, bedrock), and rates of geologic deformation. For inputs that can be quantified, the study will also provide related uncertainties. The study will also summarize what is known about:
a. climate-induced increases in storm frequency and magnitude and related changes to regional and local sea level rise estimations (e.g., more frequent and severe storm surges)
b. the response of coastal habitats and geomorphic environments (including restored environments) to future sea level rise and storminess along the West Coast
c. the role of coastal habitats, natural environments, and restored tidal wetlands and beaches in providing protection from future inundation and waves
3. The committee will organize a report dissemination workshop following the public release of the study report.
Collaborators
Committee
Chair
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Sponsors
California Department of Water Resources
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
United States Geological Survey
Staff
Anne Linn
Lead
Major units and sub-units
Division on Earth and Life Studies
Lead
Ocean Studies Board
Lead
Board on Earth Sciences and Resources
Lead