Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report (2008)

Chapter: Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop

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Suggested Citation: "Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
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Appendix C
Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop

Mitigation Approaches to Address Impacts of NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification on Joint NASA-NOAA Climate Goals
Joint NASA-NOAA Draft Study for OSTP (Phase II) June 19, 2007
Executive Summary [p. 2]

  • OSTP requested NOAA and NASA to provide:

    • An analysis of possible mitigation options of the climate impacts of the NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification through 2026

    • An assessment of the potential costs of these options

  • Primary goal: Ensure continuity of long-term climate records

  • NOAA and NASA analyzed the following options:

    • Remanifesting the climate sensors on NPOESS spacecraft

    • Placing sensors on currently planned non-NPOESS spacecraft

    • Developing new gap-filling climate satellite missions

    • Partnering opportunities

  • Key results:

    • Work in progress: still assessing options

    • Multiple options exist to mitigate the loss of sensors from NPOESS

    • Options consistent with Decadal Survey recommendations

    • Partnering for altimetry could provide significant cost savings

NOTE: B. Cramer, NASA Headquarters, “Mitigation Approaches to Address Impacts of NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification on Joint NASA-NOAA Climate Goals. Joint NASA-NOAA Draft Study for OSTP (Phase II),” presentation to the Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft Workshop, June 19, 2007, available at http://www7.nationalacademies.org/ssb/SSB_NPOESS2007_Presentations.html. The presentation as delivered at the workshop has been reformatted somewhat for publication. Page numbers in brackets refer to the original presentation. All information presented is pre-decisional, and assessments involve preliminary rough-order-of-magnitude cost estimates only.

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Suggested Citation: "Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
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Climate Sensor Impact Assessment (summarized from January 2007 NASA/NOAA Joint Assessment) [pp. 3-4]

  • Total Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS)

    • Essential to discriminate between natural and anthropogenic causes of climate change

    • Would continue 25+ year long data record

  • Earth Radiation Budget Sensor (ERBS)

    • Continuously monitors the Earth’s radiation budget to identify subtle long-term shifts related to climate change

    • Would continue 21+ year long data record

  • Ocean Altimeter (ALT)

    • Monitors sea level

    • Would continue 15+ year long data record

  • Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) – Limb Subsystem

    • Measures the vertical distribution of stratospheric ozone to monitor and understand the ozone recovery resulting from the Montreal Protocol

    • Would continue 23+ year long data record

  • Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor (APS)

    • Measures the global distribution of aerosols and their impact on the Earth’s energy balance, clouds, and precipitation

  • Conical Scanning Microwave Imager (CMIS) – Reduced Capability

    • Provides sea surface temperatures, sea ice and snow cover extents, soil moisture, ocean surface wind speed, water vapor, and precipitation rates even in the presence of heavy cloud cover

    • Continuous records date back to 1987

  • Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) – Reduced Coverage (Absent from 0930 Orbit)

    • Multi-spectral imagers sample the spectral signatures of features on or near the Earth’s surface important to climate science

    • For over three decades, scientists have depended on this imagery for a wide variety of weather and climate applications

  • Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS)/Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) – Reduced Coverage (Absent from 0530 Orbit)

    • No mitigation recommended for climate science

  • Space Environment Sensor Suite (SESS)

    • Not considered here

Development of Mitigation Options [p. 5]

  • Multiple options exist to mitigate the loss of sensors from NPOESS

  • Developed options using following criteria:

    • Minimize risk to measurement continuity

      • First priority for existing climate data records

    • Minimize risk to existing programs

    • Cost effectiveness

      • Economies of scale

      • Leverage planned missions and sensors including partnerships with other space agencies

Page 55 Cite Bookmark
Suggested Citation: "Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
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Potential Mitigation Options [p. 6]

  • Option 1: NPOESS + Gap Filler Climate Satellite

  • Option 2: Sequential Climate Satellites

  • Option 3: Sequential Climate Satellites w/TSIS Redundancy

  • Option 4: Sequential Climate Satellites w/TSIS Redundancy & Operational Risk Reduction

  • These options also include free-flyer altimetry missions and climate data record science support

FIGURE [C.1] Range of Options Examined for Climate Data Continuity. [p. 7]

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Suggested Citation: "Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
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FIGURE [C.2] Initial Recommendation from January 2007 Joint Assessment. [p. 8]

NOTES:

• VIIRS flies on NPP, C1, C2, C3, and C4

• AVHRR flies on METOP mid-morning orbit

• CMIS to be replaced by MIS starting with C2

FIGURE [C.3] Option 1. NPOESS + Climate Satellite. [p. 9]

NOTES:

• The manifest for C1 is frozen based on technical risk considerations

• VIIRS flies on NPP, C1, C2, C3, and C4

• AVHRR flies on METOP mid-morning orbit

• CMIS to be replaced by MIS starting with C2

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Suggested Citation: "Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
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FIGURE [C.4] Option 1. Continuity Timeline. NPOESS + Climate Satellite. [p. 10]

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Suggested Citation: "Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
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FIGURE [C.5] Option 2. Sequential Climate Satellites. [p. 11]

NOTES:

• The manifest for C1 is frozen based on technical risk considerations

• VIIRS flies on NPP, C1, C2, C3, and C4

• AVHRR flies on METOP mid-morning orbit

• CMIS to be replaced by MIS starting with C2

Page 59 Cite Bookmark
Suggested Citation: "Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
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FIGURE [C.6] Option 2. Continuity Timeline. Sequential Climate Satellites. [p. 12]

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Suggested Citation: "Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
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FIGURE [C.7] Option 3 and 4. Sequential Climate Satellites + TSIS Redundancy. [p. 13]

NOTES:

• The manifest for C1 is frozen based on technical risk considerations

• VIIRS flies on NPP, C1, C2, C3, and C4

• AVHRR flies on METOP mid-morning orbit

• CMIS to be replaced by MIS starting with C2

Page 61 Cite Bookmark
Suggested Citation: "Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
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FIGURE [C.8] Option 3 and 4. Continuity Timeline. Sequential Climate Satellites + TSIS Redundancy. [p. 14]

Current Studies [p. 15]

  • Work in progress: still exploring options

  • NPOESS remanifest

    • Assessed 2 options for earliest return to NPOESS flights (C2-C4)

      • NASA procures and delivers sensors to NPOESS as Government Furnished Equipment (GFE)

      • The Integrated Program Office (IPO) procures sensors via current prime contractor overseeing subcontracted instrument vendors

  • Altimetry

    • Altimetry capability explored as free-flying Jason follow-on and as advanced altimeter missions

  • Climate satellite missions

    • Examined 2 research-grade missions

      • Additionally explored TSIS (total and spectral) on Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) and International Space Station (ISS)

      • Currently assessing CERES on NPP

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Suggested Citation: "Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
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  • Examined 2 operational-grade missions

    • Used sensor analysis from NASA plus spacecraft development analysis from NOAA Polar Extended Mission study (2006)

Climate Data Record (CDR) Science Support [p. 16]

  • Includes development, production, reprocessing, stewardship, and distribution

  • Assumes data from all NPOESS certified sensors and mitigation sensors / sources

  • Covers about 30 Climate Change Science Program essential climate variables

  • Will be covered in more detail in following presentation

Free Flyer Climate Satellite [p. 17]

  • Would fly in formation with NPOESS PM to provide imager data

  • Two options were examined:

    • Research spacecraft

      • Planned 5-year mission

      • Single string development with selective redundancy

      • Inexpensive, non-standard launch vehicle

      • Ground segment leverages existing systems.

    • Operational spacecraft

      • Planned 7-year mission with additional redundancy

      • Standard launch vehicle

      • Additional investment in ground segment

  • Current cost estimate range for a 3-sensor satellite is approximately $700M-$1100M

    • CDR Science Support is an additional $300M-$450M

Altimetry Options [p. 18]

  • NPOESS sun-synchronous orbits are NOT ideal for precision altimetry

  • Flight of an altimeter on NPOESS is NOT recommended

  • For this analysis, “free flyer” satellites in the NOAA / EUMETSAT JASON series are assumed

    • Three satellites beyond JASON 2 required to provide coverage to 2026

    • Costs estimated for JASON 3, 4, and 5

    • Advanced altimeter costs also estimated

      • May replace JASON class missions starting with JASON 4

  • Independent of this study, U.S. Navy is working with the IPO to develop costs and options to procure an operational oceanography radar altimeter

  • Current total cost estimate for a series of 3 missions ranges from approximately $1.5B-$2.1B

    • CDR Science Support is an additional ~$200M

    • Current cost estimate for a single JASON follow-on is approximately $470M with the potential for 50/50 cost sharing with partners

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Suggested Citation: "Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
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TABLE Climate Goal Partnering Opportunities (Preliminary) [p. 19]

 

Partner

Sensor or Capability

Timeframe

Role

Increasing Potential →

EUMETSAT

Jason-3

2013-2018

Mitigate

NASA/Navy

Adv. Altimeter

TBD

Mitigate

ESA/JAXA (Earthcare)

APS/ERBS-like

2010-20xx

Mitigate

ESA GMES Sentinel 3

Altimeter

 

Complement

Navy (NPOESS)

Altimeter (Op)

2016-2026

Complement

Navy (DoD Space Test Program)

Altimeter (Op)

 

Complement

CNES Megha-Tropiques

ERBS-like

 

Complement

Chinese SOA (HY series)

Altimeter

 

Mitigate

Brazilian Space Agency (Amazonia)

Flight Opportunity

2010/2015

Accommodation

EUMETSAT (MSG)

ERBS-like

on-orbit

Complement

Chinese Met. Agency (FY series)

ERBS-like

 

Mitigate

ESA PARASOL

APS-like

on-orbit

Complement

Related Concerns [p.20 ]

  • VIIRS

    • Reduced imaging capability for mid-morning orbit

      • Discussions on-going with EUMETSAT about an advanced imager on METOP-D

    • Optical Crosstalk

  • MIS

    • Reduced capability microwave imager

    • First MIS scheduled to fly on NPOESS C2 (2016)

    • Discussion on-going with JAXA about AMSR-2

    • Pursuing several options for continuity of ocean vector wind measurements

TABLE Near-Term Planning [p.21 ]

 

Decision/Funding Commitment

Launch Readiness Date

CERES on NPP

September 2007 / FY07*

September 2009

TSIS on LDCM

January 2008 / FY09

Late 2011

JASON-3

Decision CY08 / FY10

2013

First Climate Free-Flyer

Mid 2009 / Pre-Phase A FY08

2014

* Would require re-allocation of existing funds

Next Steps [p.22 ]

  • Listen closely to the input from this Workshop

  • Continue to work with OSTP

  • Continue dialogue regarding potential international and/or domestic partnerships

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Suggested Citation: "Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
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Backups [pp. 23-24]

FIGURE [C.9] NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification. Reductions of Climate-Relevant Sensors. [p. 24]

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Suggested Citation: "Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix C: Mitigation Approaches Presented by NASA and NOAA at the Workshop." National Research Council. 2008. Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/12033.
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Next Chapter: Appendix D: Abbreviations and Acronyms
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