CHAPTER 2

Operations

This chapter and the following chapters are written from the future standpoint of 2050. The future events are hypothetical but are based on workshop discussions with subject matter experts. The goal of the narratives in Chapters 2, 3, and 4 is not to precisely forecast the future that U.S. airports will experience, but rather to inspire airports by envisioning a realistic path to achieving this vision by 2050.

The “Happening Now” text boxes scattered throughout the chapter describe events that have already taken place as of the writing of this report. They are an aside from the hypothetical future narrative and are intended to ground the hypothetical events in the narrative with real-world examples. To avoid overly disrupting the flow of the narrative, the authors have included “Happening Now” text boxes for a representative sample of the many activities that are currently shaping the future of airports.

State of Operations in 2024

As passenger traffic returned to pre-pandemic levels, capacity and delay issues re-emerged. Hub airports experienced significant flight delays, especially during peak periods. This congestion re-emerged despite billions of dollars invested over the preceding decade to improve airfields and modernize air traffic management (FAA, 2020).

Airport Capacity, Digital Operations, and Passenger Journey

Stakeholders across the aviation community had been steadily making a variety of operational adjustments to accommodate increasing demand and reduce congestion. Growing quantities of larger aircraft were produced, purchased, and used as they represented the most cost-effective way to transport both people and goods (Bejan, Charles, and Lorene, 2014; Hayward and Ahlgren, 2022). However, larger plane sizes presented challenges to aircraft gate/stand compatibility (the ability for an aircraft to park at a terminal gate or on an apron) and overloaded waiting areas in the terminal building. Airports sought to increase the efficiency of gate utilization by transitioning from exclusive-use gate leases (under which airlines are guaranteed use of specific gates) toward preferential-use gate leases (an airline has the first claim to a gate, but it can be assigned to another airline if needed) to ensure gate availability (FAA, 2014).

Airports across the country underwent major renovations to support the new fleet mix and growing volume of passengers, while also providing updated amenities and services. Dramatic examples included the O’Hare International Airport’s (ORD) Modernization Program that completely reconfigured ORD’s airside. The program cost roughly $8 billion, and, according to the airport operator, reduced system impact delays by 64% (Richards, 2022). Other examples in the early 2020s included changes at LaGuardia (LGA), Salt Lake City, and Seattle-Tacoma airports. Modernization plans at

airports of all sizes were accelerated with $5 billion from the discretionary funds of the Airport Terminal Program (ATP), enacted under the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL).

In addition, airport operators, other government entities, airlines, and other private companies all developed apps aimed at providing information and logistical support to passengers (e.g., directions to gates, special offers at retailers, flight status updates, mobile boarding passes, and other capabilities). Examples included apps developed by the City of Houston, San Francisco International Airport, the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority, MyTSA, and TripIt.

While these apps were helpful to many, some passengers with disabilities continued to experience problems navigating airports. Complaints about disability access had increased by 50% between 2019 and 2021 (Krause, 2022). While dozens of airports have used ATP funds for accessibility projects, no airport had addressed all barriers to access (Krause, 2022). As of 2023, only three U.S. airports had received accreditation under the Airports Council International Accessibility Enhancement Accreditation Program (ACI, 2023).

Passenger screening had not significantly evolved since its modification in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, except for the implementation of the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) PreCheck in 2013. Programs such as Clear and Customs and Border Patrol’s (CBP) Global Entry started to use biometric devices to expedite identity checks to streamline the experience.

An integrated vision of resilience known as Airport Collaborative Decision Making (ACDM) emerged to address these challenges (Wolchansky and Le Bris, 2021). ACDM involved a joint process between the stakeholders to optimize operations, reduce delays, and improve the overall passenger experience. A growing number of commercial service airports began implementing ACDM programs or initiating ACDM-like activities to monitor and address real-time conditions together and build regional-level operational resilience across the U.S. aviation system.

Air Traffic Control

The FAA continued to advance NextGen, its long-running and multi-faceted effort to transition the nation’s air traffic control system “from a ground-based air-traffic control system that uses radar to a system based on satellite navigation and digital communications” (GAO, 2023a). NextGen promised to reduce congestion while also providing benefits such as improved safety and efficiency.

However, progress in implementing various components of NextGen was characterized as “mixed” (GAO, 2023a), with delays attributed to funding issues, aircraft equipage delays, and the COVID-19 pandemic (U.S. DOT, 2021; GAO, 2023a). For example, one component of NextGen involved supplementing verbal radio communications between air traffic controllers and pilots with standardized digital text-based communications between FAA facilities, controllers, aircraft, and flight crews (U.S. DOT, 2021). This system required the installation of updated communication systems at both air traffic control towers (which manage aircraft at and near airports) and en-route centers (which manage aircraft in flight in a particular section of airspace), as well as aircraft being fitted with appropriate communications equipment. The FAA had implemented the new communication systems in 55 airports by December 2016, 29 months ahead of schedule. However, plans to implement the technology at 20 en-route centers by September 2021 were delayed until May 2025 (GAO, 2023a). These delays had spill-over effects in the implementation of other facets of NextGen; FAA forecasts indicated that spending on NextGen implementation would continue through 2030 (FAA, 2020; GAO, 2023a).

Workforce

Airports struggled with workforce development and talent retention. Airports competed with the private sector and other industries to fill positions. The lack of qualified applicants

was attributed to factors such as a lack of sufficient career development opportunities for staff in mission-critical occupations, as well as competition from other industries hiring the same employees (Cronin et al., 2016; ICF and Steer Davies Gleave, 2018). Air traffic control facilities also faced staffing shortages, resulting in delays, cancellations, and near-misses between aircraft (National Airspace System Safety Review Team, 2023). While these labor challenges predated COVID-19, the pandemic led to training pauses that worsened the situation (U.S. DOT, 2023).

Airports followed different strategies to address workforce issues, including higher wages and better benefits (e.g., onsite child care) (Baskas, 2023), outsourcing of various functions, and plans for more automated processes. At the time, the industry tended to draw new talent primarily from the pool of professionals already working in aviation-related jobs or graduates from aviation programs, resulting in a relatively narrow pipeline. The aviation field struggled to attract individuals with specialized skills, including trade jobs (e.g., carpenters, electricians, and heating, ventilating, and air conditioning technicians) and information systems positions. Gender balance was lacking. Women accounted for less than 20% of most aviation occupations and were even more poorly represented in senior leadership positions (Lutte, 2021).

Initial Steps to 2030

During this decade, airports began to make a variety of changes that established a foundation for smooth operations and increased capacity in response to the resumed growth in demand for air travel.

Airport Capacity, Digital Operations, and Passenger Journey

One foundational change was increased investment in digital operations. Examples include information technology system upgrades, customer processing systems (such as self-service bag drops and chatbots), and resource planning systems (such as maintenance and asset management systems) as well as the broader interconnection of existing systems (Michael and Papiomytis, 2017; ACI-NA, 2021; ACRP, 2021). Investments in digital connectivity, monitoring, and processing enabled increased collaboration with stakeholders, including quickly and easily sharing data. The resulting digital systems enabled broader system-level views, setting the groundwork for advanced analytics of performance data and real-time management of the aviation system at a national level perspective. In the near term, this enabled airports to experiment with new ways to handle airlines’ increasingly rapid schedule changes.

The expansion of door-to-door luggage delivery services forced a re-imagining of existing baggage processes. Package delivery firms began to offer next-day door-to-door baggage delivery between high-traffic routes. Similar services had previously existed but had been slower and more expensive. The combination of cost, convenience, and speed reached a tipping point as a small but growing share of passengers began regularly using these services in lieu of checking bags through their airline. By 2030, preliminary data suggested that this small but growing share of passengers were arriving at airports later and leaving them more quickly.

Airports also continued their efforts to increase the accessibility of air travel. Phone apps that provided users with up-to-date audio information about flight status, directions, and other information were increasingly used by the visually impaired. Updated standards were developed for accessible terminal designs, including parking facilities, curbside drop-off and pick-up, ticketing and check-in, security, and gate areas. More airports were adopting programs that allowed passengers with hidden disabilities to identify themselves (Schwartz, 2023) and that provided “test runs” so that people with disabilities could familiarize themselves with airport processes and aircraft (Fox, 2022).

Off-site screening also began in this period. It had taken quite a few years of negotiation with TSA to develop these changes (Sumers, 2023), and once implemented on a trial basis, TSA evaluated the program to ensure that a high degree of safety could be guaranteed even though passengers entered the airport after they were screened off-site (TSA, 2023). As the pilot proved successful, the next step was allowing off-site screening at non-airport locations. Many airports accommodated those changes by allowing passengers who had been screened off-site to bypass security lines within the airport. However, progress on making these upgrades to security screening was uneven across airports.

Air Traffic Control

The implementation of NextGen continued through 2030. Further significant delays were largely avoided, and as a result, the initial investments required to fully implement NextGen were largely in place. By 2030, the FAA had spent approximately $22 billion on NextGen, in addition to $13 billion in costs faced by the industry (GAO, 2023a). As a result of these investments, new capabilities had emerged. For example, air traffic management began using Trajectory Based Operations (TBO), which improved scheduling and automated data sharing (FAA, 2022b). These capabilities meshed with airports’ increased investments in digital operations, further increasing efficiency, safety, and adaptability. Additionally, by 2028, the FAA had successfully integrated AAM and autonomous operations into the airspace at scale through its Innovate28 initiative (FAA, 2023e).

Workforce

During the 2020s, airports expanded their recruiting to include individuals with diverse backgrounds and technological expertise. To foster a pipeline of talent, the aviation community increased efforts to educate young people about the diverse career opportunities available in aviation. To attract young applicants, the aviation community engaged in offering outreach programs, school visits, presentations, signing bonuses, open houses at airports, and workshops (Cronin et al., 2016). Airports increased their targeted use of different media types and channels to reach younger generations: millennials through LinkedIn or various job search platforms and Gen Z through social media platforms such as TikTok, Instagram, and X (formerly Twitter) (ACI–NA 2022a). Emphasizing efforts to reduce the global and local environmental impacts of aviation helped attract younger candidates who value environmental issues. Additionally, partnerships were formed between airports, schools, universities [including historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs) and other minority-serving institutions], and aviation training institutes (Byers, 2016).

Airports began actively seeking out non-traditional candidates, such as individuals with the potential to excel in technical trade jobs despite not having a college degree. Airports also began to hire more employees with backgrounds in data and artificial intelligence to support the increased investment in digital operations and a rapid shift toward automation (such as using data from NextGen’s TBO to implement AI-assisted scheduling of gate planning).

Airports were able to compete effectively with other industries for skilled workers by offering competitive compensation and innovative benefits, such as programs to support the mental health and well-being of their employees (ACI–NA, 2022b). To minimize entry barriers, they prioritized apprenticeships, on-the-job training, and hiring individuals without prior airport experience. Streamlined background checks resulted in faster processing times.

2030–2040

Airport Capacity, Digital Operations, and Passenger Journey

In the 2030s, capacity was addressed through new uses of airport space. Demand for parking fell gradually throughout the 2030s, particularly at urban airports that were well-connected to local transit options and where automated vehicles (AVs) as an access mode reduced the need to park vehicles at airports. As a result, more airports developed plans for alternative uses of space previously devoted to surface lots and parking garages. Groundbreakings for these changes began at multiple airports in the mid- and late 2030s. Uses ranged from additional hotel, conference, and event spaces to a new train station. Within terminals, new security screening technologies and declining demand for in-person baggage screening began to alter the physical space requirements for airport security, leading to new visions for terminal designs.

The continued growth of the door-to-door baggage delivery market pressured airports and the TSA to evolve their security and baggage-handling practices, as a growing fraction of bags were no longer dropped off or picked up by their owners. Concerns also grew among airports and terminal tenants (such as shops and restaurants) that the continued decline in time passengers were spending waiting in terminals would reduce revenue amongst terminal tenants and, in turn, airport revenues. However, even by 2040, door-to-door baggage delivery was primarily serving passengers traveling between medium- and large-hub airports, not throughout the country.

The increased investment in digital operations, combined with new technological advances, led to two sizable efficiency improvements in screening. Although biometrics had been used since the previous decade, in the 2030s TSA began piloting its own biometric-based AI-based security screening approaches at several airports. This was found to be both popular and effective, although a small but vocal minority of the public continued to voice concerns related to privacy and personally identifiable information. These changes, along with the increased use of facial recognition programs, meant security screening could be conducted significantly faster—in some airports, passively and at a distance, without the need for checkpoints.

In the 2030s, data-sharing protocols were firmly in place and airports could exchange real-time information with airlines, ground transportation providers, TSA, and passengers. These protocols increased operational efficiency through

• More efficient allocation of gates, flight crews, and security staff;
• Fewer missed transfers for both people and baggage; and
• A further reduction in the time some passengers spent in terminals (although this final efficiency further increased revenue concerns).

Air Traffic Control

With the main investments of NextGen finally in place, the 2030s were “characterized by collaboration among and within diverse traffic management services enabling the increased variety and number of new vehicles, missions, and operations” (FAA, 2023c). Digital tracking systems gave all stakeholders access to the real-time positions and status of aircraft and airport resources, as well as accurate forecasts of the future location and status of aircraft and airport resources. This significantly improved the ability of airports and other stakeholders to collaborate in positioning resources. The new system also enabled many flights to utilize more direct routes, which decreased emissions by a small but measurable amount.

These resources also increased safety. For example, they resulted in reduced risk of potential collisions. Indeed, these improvements allowed the FAA to approve reduced spacing between aircraft, increasing the capacity of the National Airspace System. The increase in throughput meant that larger airports in particular had to adapt to a slightly faster turn-over in flights. The increased volume of passengers somewhat compensated for the concerns about revenue declines associated with reductions in dwell time.

Workforce

By the 2030s, the recruitment of more diverse applicants with more diverse skills was paying off, and the focus shifted to skills development programs. The partnerships previously developed between airports, schools, universities (including HBCUs and other minority-serving institutions), and aviation training institutes evolved into more comprehensive academies that provided employees with diverse training programs that included opportunities for upskilling, reskilling, and cross-skilling. Topics included airport operations, customer service, safety and security, wildlife control, and emergency preparedness, as well as technical skills such as aircraft maintenance and repair. Additionally, the programs provided training on crucial soft skills, such as communication; teamwork, diversity, equity, and inclusion training; and leadership (ACI–NA, 2022b). Airport academies regularly revised their curricula to focus on the latest automation, digitization, and green jobs skills. Feedback from employees, along with performance metrics, allowed training programs to be adjusted as needed.

The delineation of clear yet flexible career paths enabled employees to enhance their skills to advance professionally. Airports established clear educational pathways, such as apprenticeships, internships, and secondments, and offered recognized qualification courses for new recruits. By enabling employees to move within an organization when appropriate positions became available, talent mobility fostered employee loyalty and engagement, while also benefiting the organization.

There was a concerted effort to enable knowledge transfer between experienced, long-term personnel and new hires entering the airport environment. This was supported by regular monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of talent management programs to ensure that they met the needs of the aviation industry.

2040–2050

Airport Capacity, Digital Operations, and Passenger Journey

The introduction of advanced digital innovation (e.g., artificial intelligence) and autonomous technologies in the control and operation of aviation systems, including aerial vehicles, enabled further progress in safety, security, and efficiency. These changes also created increased pressures and needs in areas such as cybersecurity.

More and more airports implemented projects to gain increased efficiencies from existing space, in response to continued growth in demand for air travel. Continuing the trend from previous decades, most large- and medium-hub airports were able to re-purpose some spaces as the needs for on-site parking, security screening, and baggage handling all changed. Changes in facility design, such as sensory rooms, were created to support the transportation needs of those with physical and cognitive impairments.

By the late 2040s, the passenger journey through the airport looked significantly different than in the mid-2020s. Continuous iterations of the use of AI-based security screening systems, combined with increased acceptability of biometric monitoring and corresponding policy changes,

contributed to new processes under which many passengers could walk directly to their gates largely unimpeded. The increased use of off-site baggage services meant that baggage drop-off and pick-up were occurring away from the airport more frequently, although systems still had to accommodate most passengers’ preference to continue to travel alongside their baggage. Terminal designs were adapting to the new world in which many travelers walked directly through the terminal without significant pause.

Air Traffic Control

Continued improvements in air traffic management were key to further increasing capacity without sacrificing safety. Details of the next generation of air traffic management began to take shape, generally following the Extensible Traffic Management vision (Magyarits, 2022). This concept focused on shifting responsibility for separation and path deconfliction from air traffic controllers to operators (both human-operated and autonomous), through expanded use of digital tracking and communications. It was anticipated that the FAA’s focus within this new system would shift toward the development of standards for such interactions, as well as the development of a secured national digital infrastructure to share data between connected vehicles and real-time stakeholders.

Workforce

In 2050, airports have successfully recruited and retained diverse talent through expanded hiring practices that sought a variety of skills from a wide array of backgrounds, not exclusively people trained in aviation-related fields. This well-established talent pipeline is providing a broad pool of workers, resulting in a more inclusive workforce, comprising individuals from various races, ethnicities, genders, sexual orientations, ages, religions, and other characteristics. As the people recruited to aviation moved up the career ladder, the broader talent pool resulted in a more diverse leadership team.

The changes in airport workforces supported a shift in organizations and mindset, with airports more effectively integrating and connecting various stakeholders’ operations and modes of transportation with an integrated, collaborative decision-making approach, fostering predictability and resilience.

Continuing Challenges

While airports made great strides in the last 25 to 30 years, ongoing challenges certainly remain. Methods for managing the increasingly crowded shared airspace continue to evolve. Airports also need to remain flexible in the face of continuing threats, including climate change and cyberthreats. The byword is “total airport resilience,” meaning that airports must be proactive in the face of emerging threats rather than reacting to the last threat. There is a common understanding that responses are as varied as threats—in addition to engineering and infrastructure solutions, airports are seeking to be nimble in adapting processes and priorities in response to emerging threats. The potential advent of innovations in data and AI has raised important questions in terms of safety, cybersecurity, equity, and the management of complex and critical situations that only human operators can safely address.