Creating a Guide to Advance the Art and Science of Decision-Making (2026)
Chapter: Summary
Summary
This conduct of research report, along with NCHRP Research Report 1162: Advancing the Art and Science of Decision-Making: A Guide, is based on the idea that the leaders of transportation agencies serve an essential role as decision-makers. Fulfilling this role effectively relies on their ability to do so quickly, accurately, and with agility in the face of changing circumstances. A host of factors make this especially challenging: incomplete information, complex organization, social, and political dynamics, limited timeframes, and flawed shortcuts and mental biases.
This research combined the latest evidence-based theories from decision science with the direct insights and advice of some of the country’s most experienced agency leaders. The result is a guidebook with actionable strategies to identify, understand, and overcome the most common and serious challenges to reaching good decisions while reducing the overall mental and time burden required.
The guide has three primary components that form the core research findings and results:
- Foundations of Decision-Making – A succinct review of what the latest cognitive science teaches us about how we make decisions.
- Strategies for Better Decisions – Actionable strategies and tactics for each of the identified challenges that can disrupt good decisions.
- Case Studies of Decisions in Action – Stories of real-world high-stakes decision situations as told by the agency leaders who experienced them.
Foundations of Decision-Making
First is a section that discusses decision-making from a theoretical standpoint, exploring the science of decision-making based in academic literature and scientific research. These findings formed the foundation for the team’s understanding of decision challenges and provided a robust framework for thinking about how to best approach decision-making. Key lessons include:
- What Makes a “Good” Decision?
- What Derails “Good” Decisions?
- Helpful Shortcuts or Harmful Bias?*
- Values and Ethics
- Common Steps for Decision-Making
*An appendix on cognitive biases provides further resources for interested readers.
Strategies for Better Decisions
The compendium of strategies to navigate common decision challenges is the core of the research results. Strategies were developed from cognitive science academic literature, industry resources in business and management, and direct input from experienced transportation agency executives. The strategies are split into four categories: information, people, situations, and after the decision. Each strategy topic features a two-page spread of consistent, scannable sections: a brief description of the topic, the top three highlights of the findings in that area, important characteristics to keep in mind that are unique to that topic, and finally a slate of concrete tactics for agency leaders to implement as needed for their situations. Generous margins on each page leave room for quotes and callout boxes that connect important information in each strategy section to the case studies. The specific strategies in the guide are summarized in Table 1.
Table 1 Strategies for better decisions, as organized in the guide
| Managing Information | Managing People | Managing Situations | After the Decision is Made |
|---|---|---|---|
| Get the Right Information from Your Team Broaden Your Perspective Don’t Run from Emotions When is the Information You Have “Enough”? |
Be Savvy to Politics & External Forces Connect with Staff & Internal Forces Monitor Group Dynamics Balance Multiple Objectives |
Manage Risk and Uncertainty Suspend Protocol Strategically Navigate Crisis |
Communicate Your Decision Implement Your Decision Adapt Your Decisions |
Case Studies of Decision in Action
The final major product of this project is the series of case studies about real-world decisions by transportation agency leaders. The case studies served as both input to the research and a resulting final product. In-depth conversations with six executives about a notable decision situation they each encountered formed the basis for identifying the key decision challenges that required strategic advice. Once complete, they serve as relatable stories that other executive-level decision-makers can explore to see the guide’s strategies play out in a real situation. A summary of the case study participants and topics are outlined in Table 2.
Table 2 Case study participants and topics
| Leader | Agency | Case Study |
|---|---|---|
| Vicki Kramer | Director, Nebraska DOT | Positioning for Local Grant Success in Nebraska |
| Shawn Wilson | Secretary, Louisiana DOTD | Road Closures Amid Megaproject Delivery in Baton Rouge |
| Ricardo Martinez | Administrator, NHTSA (former) | Expanding Air Bags Amid Public Outcry |
| Toks Omishakin | Secretary, CalSTA (former) | Rural Road Funds vs. Climate Projects in California |
| Russel McMurry | Secretary, Georgia DOT | Crisis Decision-Making: Atlanta’s Interstate Fire and Bridge Collapse |
| Joyce Taylor | State Engineer, Maine DOT | Changing Engineering Standards in Maine |
