Panel Discussion

Session 1: Context for International Travel

Panelists

Matt Cornelius, Executive Vice President, Airports Council International–North America, Moderator

Roger Schaufele, Manager, Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division, FAA

John Heimlich, Chief Economist, Airlines for America

David Huether, Deputy Director, Research, National Travel and Tourism Office, Department of Commerce

Matt Cornelius opened the panel discussion by reflecting on the significant changes in international travel over the past decades. He highlighted the current state of international travel and posed questions about its future over the next 25 years. Cornelius noted accomplishments made so far, such as the implementation of CBP’s Global Entry Trusted Traveler Program and Mobile Passport Control (MPC) app, but emphasized that there are even greater opportunities for future innovation to consider.

Context. The panelists were introduced, setting the stage for a comprehensive discussion on the future of international travel. The panel started off by looking at the future world population in 2050, estimated at 9.8 billion people worldwide and upward of 400 million for the United States alone.

The international traveler in 2050. John Heimlich discussed the current dominance of Canadian and Mexican travelers, who accounted for approximately 40 percent of international passengers in 2024. He predicted a greater share of travel from other countries by 2050, with increases coming from Asian markets, particularly India and

China. Europe will remain important, but Asia is expected to be a source of major growth. Roger Schaufele added that the Middle East is also anticipated to contribute significantly to international travel.

David Huether highlighted the potential reopening of Russian airspace and the growth of Saudi Arabia as key factors. He emphasized the impact of social media on travel trends and noted the rise of historically smaller international gateways such as Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) and Denver International Airport (DEN). Heimlich mentioned that outbound international travel has fully recovered from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Generational impact on travel. The panel discussed how millennials and Gen Zers prioritize experiences and travel over traditional milestones like homeownership. This trend is expected to continue, with younger generations seeking unique travel experiences. Flexible work arrangements, such as remote and hybrid work, are likely to increase, further promoting travel.

An international survey indicated that younger travelers tend to stay longer in the United States than travelers from older generations. The trend of passport ownership is expected to rise, as younger generations are more open to biometrics and online documentation, now requirements for passports.

Travel trends and preferences. The panel explored the influence of travel recommendations from friends and family on choice of destinations. Panel members stated that the United States is seen as a friendly destination with major attractions, but safety concerns have become a disadvantage for the United States when compared with other regions and countries of the world. Leisure and education travel have grown significantly, while business travel has declined. The attractiveness and safety of destinations are crucial factors for business travelers.

Technological advancements. The ease of booking travel through smartphone apps and the growth of intermodal travel were discussed. The panel noted that while increases in the supply of premium experiences can cheapen them, technology will continue to facilitate seamless and intuitive travel experiences for passengers.

Impact of returning U.S. passengers versus inbound international passengers. The proportion of passengers returning to the United States remains higher than inbound international passenger demand in 2024. However, the volume of international inbound passengers is predicted to recover and increase in the long term. The spending patterns of international passengers in the United States were highlighted, with market distribution varying by region.

Rightsizing FIS facilities. The panel addressed the challenges of accommodating growth in the volume of international passengers, which is expected to double by 2050.

The importance of knowing the mix of returning versus inbound passengers and the need to keep a human-centered approach to customs processing were emphasized. Emerging gateways such as CLT and DEN may take on more passengers, and building agile networks will be crucial.

Population growth and travel. The largest increase in passenger volume is expected to come from such places as South Asia and Africa, raising questions about first-time travelers, diseases, and documentation issues. To address these changes, panel members also spoke about the importance of using data intelligence to handle large amounts of information about travelers and to better enable airport facility planners to address potential types of passenger flows.

Session 2: Context for CBP Modernization

Speakers

Solomon Wong, President and CEO, InterVISTAS Consulting

John Wagner, Former Deputy Executive Assistant Commissioner, U.S. CBP; President, John Wagner Consulting LLC

A one-on-one conversation between Solomon Wong and John Wagner was held.

Reflections on CBP post-9/11: Wagner reflected on the challenges faced by CBP after 9/11. Initially, it was believed that making processes easier would compromise security. However, CBP aimed to separate bad actors from good actors, leading to the development of the Trusted Traveler Program. This program, which initially expected sign-ups in the mere thousands, successfully enrolled millions. Wagner emphasized the

importance of building systems that accommodate middle-of-the-pack travelers while ensuring safety and security.

Investment in hardware located at airports vs. smartphones: With the rise of smartphones and increasing customer comfort in their use, Wagner discussed whether FIS facilities still need to invest in physical hardware. He highlighted the maturing ability of biometric technology in cell phones, kiosks, and scanners to identify passengers effectively. Wagner acknowledged that older processes might still be necessary for different cultures and generations less comfortable with technology.

Types of travelers. Wong recalled the work with Wagner about trusted travelers in the 2000s, especially the use of private–public focus groups to map out different ways of managing traveler types. Wagner described that there are three types of travelers, defined by the amount of information available about them: trusted, middle-of-the-pack, and higher risk. One of the opportunities he outlined was more sophisticated systems that help less experienced travelers navigate facilities while incorporating self-guided options for those who need less assistance.

Data utilization. Wagner discussed the potential for using data in advance of flights of foreign origin to decrease the amount of time needed to process passengers upon arrival. He emphasized the importance of addressing government concerns up front and validating all traveler information on arrival.

Privacy and checked bags: Wong outlined the way Wagner addresses privacy issues head-on. Wagner addressed privacy concerns related to checked bags and the need to build processes under CBP control without compromising privacy. He suggested looking at specific points along the travel journey to reduce repetitive requirements and ensure privacy is maintained.

Protecting information: Wagner highlighted the importance of maintaining public trust to retain authority. He emphasized the need for transparency and accountability in how data is obtained, used, and retained. He stressed the importance of addressing privacy concerns reasonably.

Role of stakeholders: Wagner discussed the future role of stakeholders, including partnerships with private organizations that need to protect their information and business interests. He emphasized the need for caution in sharing government data and the importance of giving people a clear understanding of how their data is used.

Adapting to passenger trends: Wagner explored ways to streamline and coordinate different steps in the travel process while considering safety and security. He acknowledged the complexity of the system and the need for continuous adaptation to passenger trends.

Collaboration between CBP and the Transportation Security Administration (TSA): Wagner discussed the potential for collaboration between CBP and TSA on one-stop bag screening. He mentioned open-source projects, such as those at Heathrow Airport (LHR) using Microsoft artificial intelligence (AI) technology to meet different requirements. He emphasized the importance of implementing solutions and adjusting as needed.

Future of technology: Wagner highlighted pilot programs at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) and Dulles International Airport (IAD) that leverage biometrics to eliminate the need for processing booths. He mentioned that CBP’s Global Entry program aims to remove booths eventually but must maintain high standards.

One-stop bag screening: Wagner noted that American Airlines is working on implementing one-stop bag screening for flights from Sydney Airport (SYD) and LHR into DFW, eliminating the need to rescreen bags.

Interview approach: Wagner discussed the potential for remote or departure lounge interviews, depending on legal requirements. He noted that this approach is primarily used in boat or general aviation locations rather than airports.