National Academy of Sciences

National Academy of Engineering

Institute of Medicine

National Research Council

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

Predicting the future would appear to be an inherently unscientific process; there are few opportunities for constructing falsifiable hypotheses and testing them, short of waiting until the future actually becomes the present. Nonetheless, scientists are often called on to engage in the exercise; the ability to construct and project different futures can allow scientists to guide society in achieving a particular fate that it deems desirable. Relevant information gathered about the past and the present can be used as a basis for choosing intelligently among possible futures.

In January 1998, the National Research Council convened a committee of experts representing a broad range of disciplines to make an effort to predict the future of pesticide use in American agriculture. The effort was far from the first made by the National Research Council to evaluate aspects of pesticide use; the subject has been the focus of National Research Council attention for close to 5 decades, dating back to the earliest days of widespread adoption of synthetic organic pesticides (Appendix A). The format of evaluation has varied—some publications resulted from conferences or symposia and others, were the product of committee deliberations after extended study. Conclusions have also varied, sometimes dramatically. That they have varied is not surprising, given that, over the course of 5 decades technologies have changed, society's goals and values have changed, and even the biology of pest species has changed. In most cases, the publications have had a measurable impact and have influenced attitudes toward pesticides or pesticide use.

It is our hope that this report will influence attitudes and policies.

One prediction that can be made with some confidence, however, is that, irrespective of the impact of our committee's study and report, it will likely not be the last study commissioned by the National Research Council on the subject of pesticides. Whether there will be 5 more decades of debate or far fewer, depends on dimensions of society, technology, and biology that are impossible to predict even with the best analytical tools available today.

May R. Berenbaum

Chair

Committee on the Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture

The committee was greatly assisted by many individuals and groups that generously shared facts and expertise during the information-gathering phase of this study. In particular, we thank the people who participated in the three public workshops held across the country to provide the committee with input on a wide variety of subjects:

MICHAEL ALAVANJA, Agricultural Health Study, National Cancer Institute

KATE AULTMAN, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

JOE BODDIFORD, Georgia Peanut Commission, Sylvania, Georgia

BARRY BRENNAN, US Department of Agriculture, Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service, Pesticide Applicator Training

JENNY BROOME, University of California Davis, Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education Program and Biological Integrated Farming Systems

MARGRIET CASWELL, US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service

RAY CARRUTHERS, US Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service

PETER CAULKINS, US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Pesticide Policy

FORREST CHUMLEY, Dupont Agricultural Products

RON CISNEY, Olocco Ag Services, Santa Maria, California

HAROLD COBLE, US Department of Agriculture, Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service

JIM CRANNY, US Apple Association

RUPA DAS, California Department of Health Services, Berkeley, California

ERNIE DELFOSSE, US Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service

HELENE DILLARD, New York State Agricultural Experiment Station

LARRY ELWORTH, Gettysburg, Pennsylvania

ROBERT EPSTEIN, US Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service, Science and Technology Pesticide Data Program

LEONARD GIANESSI, National Center for Food and Agriculture Policy

BOB GILLIOM, US Geological Survey, Sacramento, California

DICK GUEST, US Department of Agriculture, Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service Interregional-4 Program

JOHN G. HUFTALIN, Grower, Rochelle, Illinois

TOBI JONES, California Department of Pesticide Regulation

WOLFRAM KOELLER, Cornell University, New York State Agricultural Experiment Station, Geneva, New York

SAM LANG, Fairway Green, Raleigh, North Carolina

YOUNG LEE, US Food and Drug Administration, Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition

RAY MCALLISTER, American Crop Protection Association

MIKE MCKENRY, University of California Davis, Kearney Agricultural Experiment Station

CHARLES MELLINGER, Glades Crop Care, Jupiter, Florida

MIKE OWEN, Iowa State University, Ames

KATHLEEN MERRIGAN, Henry A. Wallace Institute, Washington, DC

MICHAEL O'MALLEY, University of California Davis, Employee Health Services

ELDON ORTMAN, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana

STEVE PAVICH, Pavich Family Farms, Porterville, California

BOB PETERSON, Dow AgroSciences, Indianapolis, Indiana

DAVID PIMENTEL, Cornell University, Department of Entomology, Ithaca, New York

GEORGE PONDER, Curtice Burns Foods, Montezuma, Georgia

MARY PURCELL, US Department of Agriculture, Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service, National Research Initiative Competitive Grants Program

BOB QUINN, Millenial Farm and Ranch, Big Sandy, Montana

NANCY RAGSDALE, US Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service

SAM RIVES, US Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service

WAYNE SANDERSON, National Institute of Safety and Health, Cincinnati, Ohio

ANN SORENSEN, Center for Agriculture in the Environment, American Farmland Trust, Dekalb, Illinois

TOM SPARKS, Dow AgroSciences, Discovery Research, Indianapolis, Indiana

TONY THOMPSON, Willow Lake Farm, Windom, Minnesota

KEL WIEDER, US Department of Agriculture, Agriculture Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service, National Research Initiative Competitive Grants

MARK WHALON, Pesticide Research Center, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan

DEAN ZULEGER, Hartland Farms, Hancock, Wisconsin

The following are also acknowledged for assisting the National Research Council staff during preparation of the report by providing updated information and statistics: Arnold Aspelin, senior economist, US Environmental Protection Agency Office of Pesticides Programs; Eldon Ball, economist, US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Resource Economics Division; Jennifer Eppes, author of The Future of Biopesticides, Business Communications Company Inc.; Merritt Padgitt, agricultural conomist, US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service; James Parochetti, US Department of Agriculture, Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension Service; and Patrick Stewart, Department of Political Science, Arkansas State University.

The committee and staff wish to acknowledge with special recognition the contributions of Nancy Ragsdale of the Agricultural Research Service, US Department of Agriculture. Her efforts catalyzed the interest in and subsequent support for this study from both the US Department of Agriculture and the National Research Council. The committee thanks her for unflagging support and patience with this report though its development.

The committee is grateful for the extraordinary efforts of the staff of the National Research Council Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources (BANR) in facilitating all stages of this study. Warren Muir, executive director of the Commission on Life Sciences and of BANR provided oversight and Charlotte Kirk Baer, acting as interim director and associate director of BANR, demonstrated an unremitting commitment to seeing this report through to completion. Mary Jane Letaw provided invaluable assistance as project director in early stages of the study, particularly in organizing the project and in arranging the workshops. Karen L.

Imhof, project assistant, ably provided enthusiastic support through all stages of report preparation and completion, despite many competing demands on her time. Kim Waddell, project director during later stages of the study, is particularly worthy of recognition for his exceptional efforts at shepherding the report through the review process in a timely and consummately professional way. Heather Christiansen, research associate, provided timely updates and improvements to many of the figures and tables throughout the report. The committee is also appreciative of Norman Grossblatt for his editorial refinement of the report.

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards of objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Sandra O. Archibald, Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs; Daniel Barolo, Jellinek, Schwartz & Connolly, Inc.; Ellis B. V. Cowling, North Carolina State University; William Fry, Cornell University; Maureen Hinkle, National Audubon Society (retired); Robert Hollingworth, Michigan State University; George G. Kennedy, North Carolina State University; William L. Ogren, US Department of Agriculture (retired); Steven Radosevich, Oregon State University; Mark Robson, Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute; Len Saari, DuPont Agricultural Products; Thomas Sparks, DowAgro Sciences; and John Stark, Washington State University.

Although the individuals listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, it must be emphasized that responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the author committee and the National Research Council.

Tables

Figures

Boxes

The Future Role of Pesticides in US Agriculture