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Developing a U.S. Research Agenda to Advance Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting

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Topics

Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. This report presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation’s S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.

About Past Events

Description

An ad hoc committee will conduct a study that will identify opportunities to increase forecasting skill on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales based on the 2010 NRC report Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability and progress since. The report will describe a strategy to increase the nation’s scientific capacity for research on S2S forecasting. The committee will develop a 10-year scientific research agenda to accelerate progress on extending prediction skill for weather and ocean forecasts at spatial and temporal resolutions to aide in decision making. The committee’s report will cover:

  • Identification of potential sources of predictability and assessment of their relative value for advancing predictive skill;
  • Identification of process studies for incorporating new sources of predictability into models;
  • Application and advancement of ocean-atmosphere-ice-land coupled models;
  • Key observations needed for model initialization and verification of S2S forecasts;
  • Uncertainty quantification and verification of probabilistic products;
  • Approaches to communicating this type of prediction in a way that is useful to and understandable by decision makers; and
  • Computational and data storage and visualization infrastructure requirements.

Contributors

Committee

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Sponsors

Heising-Simons Foundation

National Academy of Sciences Arthur L. Day Fund

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Office of Naval Research

Staff

Edward Dunlea

Lead

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