Completed
This study responds to a congressional mandate in the FY2021 National Defense Authorization Act, which calls for the National Academies to address the adequacy of strategies to prevent, counter, and respond to WMD terrorism, and identify technical, policy, and resource gaps. The assessments encompass state-sponsored and non-state actors from acquiring or misusing the technologies, materials, and critical expertise needed to carry out WMD attacks, including dual-use technologies, materials, and expertise. The nuclear and chemical threats studies will result in consensus reports and the biological threat assessment will produce workshop proceedings to advise Congress and relevant government agencies.
Featured publication
Consensus
·2024
For nearly eight decades, the world has been navigating the dangers of the nuclear age. Despite Cold War tensions and the rise of global terrorism, nuclear weapons have not been used in conflict since Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Efforts such as strategic deterrence, arms control and non-prolifer...
View details
Description
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) will appoint two ad hoc topical committees to address specific issues related to chemical and nuclear terrorism threats. These committees will address the adequacy of strategies to prevent, counter, and respond to chemical and nuclear terrorism, and identify technical, policy, and resource gaps with respect to—
(1) identifying national and international chemical and nuclear risks, and critical emerging threats;
(2) preventing state-sponsored and non-state actors from acquiring or misusing the technologies, materials, and critical expertise needed to carry out chemical and nuclear attacks, including dual-use technologies, materials, and expertise;
(3) countering efforts by state-sponsored and non-state actors to carry out such attacks;
(4) responding to chemical and nuclear terrorism incidents to attribute their origin and help manage their consequences;
(5) budgets likely to be required to implement effectively such strategies; and
(6) other important matters that are directly relevant to such strategies.
For the biological terrorism assessment, NASEM will appoint an ad hoc planning committee to convene two workshops to discuss current and future issues in preventing, deterring, and countering bioterrorism. The focus will be on three primary issues, all of which were highlighted during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and previous biological incidents:
(1) Policy and technical capabilities for forensics and attribution of biological incidents of unknown or questionable origin, including current scientific capabilities and their limitations at determining whether the incidents were man-made.
(2) Current and future threats of mis- and disinformation campaigns that contribute to challenges toward prevention, detection, and accurate attribution of biological terrorism incidents.
(3) Gaps in policies and programs for addressing biological terrorism based on lessons learned from the pandemic and other biological incidents, and awareness about actor capabilities, motivations, and resources.
NASEM will produce consensus reports for the chemical and nuclear portions of the study and
will produce rapporteur-prepared workshop proceedings-in-brief for the biological portion. Reports and proceedings-in-brief will be provided to the sponsor and to Congress within 17 months, and all work will be completed within 18 months after receipt of funds.
Contributors
Sponsors
Department of Defense
Staff
Charles Ferguson
Lead
Marie Kirkegaard
Lead
Megan Harries
Lead
Michael Janicke
Lead
Major units and sub-units
Policy and Global Affairs
Collaborator
Division on Earth and Life Studies
Lead
Center for Advancing Science and Technology
Lead
International Networks and Cooperation
Collaborator
Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board
Lead
Board on Life Sciences
Lead
Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology
Lead
Physical Sciences, Systems, and Infrastructure Program Area
Lead