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The Future of Arctic Sea Ice Research in Support of Seasonal-to-Decadal Prediction

Completed

Understanding and projecting future Arctic sea ice conditions is important to a growing number of stakeholders, including local populations, natural resource industries, fishing communities, commercial shippers, marine tourism operators, national security organizations, regulatory agencies, and the scientific research community. Establishing sustained communication between the user, modeling, and observation communities could help reveal gaps in understanding, help balance the needs and expectations of different stakeholders, and ensure that resources are allocated to address the most pressing sea ice data needs. Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies explores these topics.

Description

An ad hoc committee will plan and conduct a public workshop that outlines the current state of Arctic sea ice research, discusses knowledge gaps, and identifies emerging or important new science questions for the coming decade. Through invited presentations and discussion, participants will examine current observations and modeling efforts of sea ice, and identify (but not prioritize) areas of research and technology advances needed to better understand current and future changes. The committee will examine Arctic sea ice prediction, with a particular emphasis on seasonal-to-decadal timescales. The workshop will be designed to bring together polar scientists and agency representatives to explore whether there are new capabilities and infrastructure available to study sea ice in different ways that might shed new light on emerging research questions. This information may provide the context for future planning and policy development for sea ice research activities. The outcome of this activity will be a consensus report of the committee that builds on workshop presentations and discussions to provide conclusions on the following topics:

  • What key scientific questions remain and how can we improve our understanding of the coupling between oceans, atmosphere, and sea ice (e.g. on what processes should observations be focused)?
  • What systems of monitoring and observations are needed to better understand and predict the connection between changes in Arctic sea ice and its impacts on climate?
  • What aspects of coupled sea ice models do we understand the best and in what ways can models better utilize existing observations and monitoring of sea ice to enhance our understanding of processes and future changes, and improve sea ice prediction?

Collaborators

Committee

Co-Chair

Co-Chair

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

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Committee Membership Roster Comments

Note: Rebecca Woodgate resigned from the committee effective June 20, 2012.

Sponsors

Intelligence Community

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Office of Naval Research

Staff

Katherine C Thomas

Lead

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