ADVANCING LAND CHANGE MODELING

                                                      Opportunities and Research Requirements

Committee on Needs and Research Requirements for Land Change Modeling

Geographical Sciences Committee

Board on Earth Sciences and Resources

Division on Earth and Life Studies

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
                          OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS     500 Fifth Street, N.W.     Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This study was supported by Grant No. G10AP00104 between the National Academy of Sciences and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and Grant No. NNX10AT12G between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-28833-0

International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-28833-9

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine

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The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.

COMMITTEE ON NEEDS AND RESEARCH REQUIREMENTS FOR LAND CHANGE MODELING

DANIEL G. BROWN (Chair), University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

LAWRENCE E. BAND, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

KATHLEEN O. GREEN, Kass Green and Associates, Berkeley, Calif.

ELENA G. IRWIN, Ohio State University, Columbus

ATUL JAIN, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

ERIC F. LAMBIN, Stanford University and University of Louvain

ROBERT G. PONTIUS JR., Clark University, Worchester, Mass.

KAREN C. SETO, Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, New Haven

B. L. TURNER II, Arizona State University, Tempe

PETER H. VERBURG, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

National Research Council Staff

MARK D. LANGE, Study Director

NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate (from July 2012)

JASON R. ORTEGO, Research Associate (until July 2012)

ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant (from August 2013)

CHANDA T. IJAMES, Senior Program Assistant (until August 2013)

GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES COMMITTEE

WILLIAM L. GRAF (Chair), University of South Carolina, Columbia

ANTHONY BEBBINGTON, Clark University, Worcester

WILLIAM E. EASTERLING III, Pennsylvania State University, University Park

CAROL P. HARDEN, University of Tennessee, Knoxville

JOHN A. KELMELIS, Pennsylvania State University, University Park

AMY L. LUERS, Skoll Global Threats Fund, Palo Alto

GLEN M. MACDONALD, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles

PATRICIA MCDOWELL, University of Oregon, Eugene

SUSANNE C. MOSER, Susanne Moser Research & Consulting, Santa Cruz, California

DAVID R. RAIN, George Washington University, Washington, D.C.

KAREN C. SETO, Yale University, New Haven

National Research Council Staff

MARK D. LANGE, Program Officer

NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate

ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant

BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES

CORALE L. BRIERLEY (Chair), Brierley Consultancy, LLC, Denver, Colorado

SUSAN L. CUTTER, University of South Carolina, Columbia

WILLIAM L. GRAF, University of South Carolina, Columbia

MURRAY W. HITZMAN, Colorado School of Mines, Golden

EDWARD KAVAZANJIAN, JR, Arizona State University, Tempe

ANN S. MAEST, Stratus Consulting, Boulder, Colorado

DAVID R. MAIDMENT, University of Texas, Austin

ROBERT MCMASTER, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis

M. MEGHAN MILLER, UNAVCO, Inc., Boulder, Colorado

ISABEL P. MONTAÑEZ, University of California, Davis

CLAUDIA INÉS MORA, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico

BRIJ M. MOUDGIL, University of Florida, Gainesville

CLAYTON R. NICHOLS, Idaho Operations Office (retired), Ocean Park, Washington

HENRY N. POLLACK, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

DAVID T. SANDWELL, University of California, San Diego

PETER M. SHEARER, University of California, San Diego

REGINAL SPILLER, Azimuth Investments, LLC, Houston, Texas

GENE WHITNEY, Independent Consultant, Washington, D.C.

National Research Council Staff

ELIZABETH A. EIDE, Director

ANNE M. LINN, Senior Program Officer

SAMMANTHA L. MAGSINO, Senior Program Officer

MARK D. LANGE, Program Officer

NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate

COURTNEY R. GIBBS, Program Associate

ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant

Acknowledgments

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:

Richard Aspinall, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen

Michael Batty, University College London, London

Keith Clarke, University of California, Santa Barbara

Ronald Eastman, Clark University, Worcester

Johannes Feddema, University of Kansas, Lawrence

Alan Murray, Arizona State University, Tempe

Cindy Nickerson, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C.

Bryan Pijanowski, Purdue University, West Lafayette

David Skole, Michigan State University, East Lansing

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse—nor did they see—the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Kate Beard-Tisdale, University of Maine, Orono. Appointed by the Division on

Earth and Life Studies, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of the report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Research Council.

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