PROGRESS TOWARD
RESTORING THE EVERGLADES

The Eighth Biennial Review - 2020

Committee on Independent Scientific Review of
Everglades Restoration Progress

Water Science and Technology Board

Division on Earth and Life Studies

A Consensus Study Report of

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
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This activity was supported by contracts between the National Academy of Sciences and the Department of the Army under Cooperative Agreement No. W912EP-15-2-0002 and by the U.S. Department of the Interior and the South Florida Water Management District. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-67978-7
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-67978-8
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/25853

Cover credit: Eric Edkin

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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Progress Toward Restoring the Everglades: The Eighth Biennial Review - 2020. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25853.

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COMMITTEE ON INDEPENDENT SCIENTIFIC REVIEW OF EVERGLADES RESTORATION PROGRESS

CHARLES T. DRISCOLL,Chair, Syracuse University, NY

WILLIAM G. BOGGESS, Oregon State University, Corvallis

CASEY BROWN, University of Massachusetts, Amherst

ROBIN K. CRAIG, University of Utah, Salt Lake City

THOMAS DUNNE, University of California, Santa Barbara

M. SIOBHAN FENNESSY, Kenyon College, Gambier, OH

JAMES W. JAWITZ, University of Florida, Gainesville

EHAB A. MESELHE, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA

DENISE J. REED, University of New Orleans, LA

JAMES SAIERS, Yale University, New Haven, CT

ERIC P. SMITH, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg

MARTHA A. SUTULA, Southern California Coastal Water Research Project, Costa Mesa

JEFFREY R. WALTERS, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg

DENISE H. WARDROP, Pennsylvania State University, University Park

NRC Staff

STEPHANIE E. JOHNSON, Study Director

BRENDAN R. MCGOVERN, Research Associate (until December 2019)

ERIC EDKIN, Program Coordinator (from December 2019)

ELLENI GIORGIS, Program Assistant (from September 2020)

WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BOARD

CATHERINE L. KLING (NAS), Chair, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY

NEWSHA AJAMI, Stanford University, CA

PEDRO J. ALVAREZ (NAE), Rice University, Houston, TX

JONATHAN D. ARTHUR, Florida Geological Survey, Tallahassee

RUTH L. BERKELMAN (NAM), Emory University, Atlanta, GA

JORDAN R. FISCHBACH, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA

ELLEN GILINSKY, Ellen Gilinsky, LLC, Richmond, VA

WENDY D. GRAHAM, University of Florida, Gainesville

ROBERT M. HIRSCH, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA

VENKATARAMAN LAKSHMI, University of Virginia, Charlottesville

MARK W. LeCHEVALLIER, Dr. Water Consulting, LLC, Morrison, CO

CAMILLE PANNU, University of California, Irvine

DAVID L. SEDLAK (NAE), University of California, Berkeley

JENNIFER TANK, University of Notre Dame, IN

DAVID L. WEGNER, Jacobs Engineering, Tucson, AZ

P. KAY WHITLOCK, Christopher B. Burke Engineering, Ltd., Rosemont, IL

Staff

DEBORAH GLICKSON, Director

LAURA J. EHLERS, Senior Staff Officer

STEPHANIE E. JOHNSON, Senior Staff Officer

M. JEANNE AQUILINO, Financial Business Partner

COURTNEY DEVANE, Administrative Coordinator

CALLA ROSENFELD, Senior Program Assistant

SARAH HAEDRICH, Program Assistant

Reviewer Acknowledgment

This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

Although these reviewers provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions and recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Kenneth W. Potter, University of Wisconsin and Bonnie McCay, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey. Appointed by the National Academies, they were responsible for making certain that an

independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments received full consideration. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.

Acknowledgments

Many individuals assisted the committee and the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine staff in their task to create this report. We would like to express our appreciation to Emad Habib, University of Louisiana at Lafayette for assistance with Figure 6-3. We would also like to thank the following people who gave presentations, participated in panel discussions, provided public comment to the committee, or served as field trip guides.

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Dedication

This report is dedicated to the memory of two long-time supporters of the Everglades and its restoration, Drs. Karl Havens and William (Will) Graf. Karl was a member of the faculty of the University of Florida and the director of the Florida Sea Grant program. He was a member of the National Academies Committee on Independent Scientific Review of Everglades Restoration Progress (CISRERP), participating in committees in 2014 and 2016. Karl was an internationally recognized scholar on the response of freshwater and coastal ecosystems to human disturbances, including excess nutrients and climate change. He had considerable research interests and experience in Lake Okeechobee and Everglades restoration, which this committee put to good use. Karl was passionate in his personal and professional interests and always generous with his time and energy. Karl was an ardent and talented photographer and a great resource for interesting eateries in South Florida.

Will Graf was a Foundation University Professor Emeritus at the University of South Carolina. He served on CISRERP committees from 2004 to 2016, including as chair for the second biennial review (NRC, 2008). He also served on two prior National Academies Everglades committees from 2002 to 2004. Will had a long and distinguished career in geography, focusing on the geomorphology and hydrology of rivers, and the intersection of science and policy for public lands and waters. Will was generous in professional service, and he chaired or served on more than 20 committees of the National Academies, serving continuously on at least one committee (sometimes more) for 30 years. He had many interests, including hiking, kayaking, and traveling, and he delighted in sharing these passions with other committee members by organizing bicycling adventures in Newport Beach and a subgroup trip to Picayune Strand. The committee fondly remembers Will’s train whistle calling committee meetings to order and his relentless enthusiasm for the application of Everglades restoration science.

Karl and Will were tremendous colleagues and great friends. They will be missed.

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Preface

The Everglades is a wondrous and unique landscape. This vast wetland drains a complex of sawgrass marshes and sloughs, hardwood hammocks, pinelands, and cypress swamps before discharging into its surrounding estuaries, including the St. Lucie Estuary, the Caloosahatchee Estuary, Biscayne Bay, and Florida Bay. The Everglades is also surrounded by ever-increasing urban development. Although there is an inherent tension between the built and natural environment, a fully functioning Everglades is critical to many ecosystem services that benefit the ever-increasing population of South Florida, including drinking water supply; mitigation against sea-level rise and storm surges; and healthy, productive, and diverse wildlife and fisheries, among many others. Unfortunately, drainage and development compromised the form and function of the Everglades and continue to impair the quantity and quality of water. Recent observations show that the Everglades are also increasingly challenged by changing climate. Sea-level rise, erratic and extreme weather, and harmful algal blooms are all manifestations of climate change and have focused public attention on the critical need to restore and protect the natural environment of South Florida.

Recognizing the consequences of the long-term degradation of the South Florida landscape, in 1999 the federal government partnered with the State of Florida to initiate the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) to maintain and improve the ecosystem’s structure and function. In establishing the CERP, Congress also requested that an independent scientific review be conducted on progress toward restoration with biennial reports. The National Academies formed the Committee on Independent Scientific Review of Everglades Restoration Progress (CISRERP) in 2004. This report is the eighth in the series.

This report period coincides with a particularly exciting period for the CERP. Twenty years in, the restoration efforts are, at last, seeing the completion and operation of some projects and progress in others. This transition from planning projects to beginning of their operation, integration, and optimization is

rewarding for the many people and groups who have worked long and hard on Everglades restoration. This pivot toward project operation represents an opportunity to learn about the first stages of ecosystem response to restoration and to use this information to inform and guide future restoration efforts.

The CISRERP consists of scientists, social scientists, and engineers with a range of relevant expertise and experience in the environmental sciences, hydrology, wetland and estuarine science, systems engineering, statistics, modeling, project and program administration, law, economics, and public policy. Some committee members have experience in past CISRERP reviews or have relevant research experience working on the Everglades. Other committee members are less familiar with this complex and important system. This span of experience is healthy and brings a range of perspectives to the issues and activities we considered. The full committee met on four occasions in Florida and twice virtually over a 12-month period. We reviewed reports and published literature, heard oral presentations, and had discussions with federal, state, and tribal personnel, academic scientists, representatives of nongovernmental organizations and interest groups, and the public. I am humbled and honored to work with such a distinguished and dedicated group. The CISRERP members are highly accomplished and have worked diligently and effectively as a team to produce this report. I have been impressed with the careful analysis, ideas, time committed, and thoughtful suggestions by committee members in reviewing materials and developing the report. This report represents a consensus of the committee on the restoration progress and challenges anticipated in future restoration not only from the perspective of the most recent 2-year period, but also more broadly since the CERP was initiated 20 years ago.

The committee is indebted to many individuals for supplying information and resources that have been critical to our review. In particular, the committee’s technical liaisons—Glenn Landers (USACE), Eva Velez (USACE), Nafeeza Hooseinny (SFWMD), and Robert Johnson (DOI)—greatly facilitated our work by effectively responding to frequent requests for information and providing access to agency resources and expertise. The committee is appreciative of the efforts of numerous people who readily provided valuable insights and knowledge of the Everglades ecosystem and its restoration through presentations, conversations, terrific field trips, and public comments (see Acknowledgments).

The committee has been extremely fortunate to work with gifted staff from the National Academies to help us meet our charge. Stephanie Johnson has been stellar as project officer of eight CISRERP committees for the National Academies. The CERP is a remarkably challenging and interesting program entailing a complex biophysical system, many interconnected restoration projects, a number of federal, state, and tribal agencies that work together to accomplish the restora-

tion, and stakeholders who are passionate about the Everglades but at times have conflicting ideas and interests. Stephanie’s intellect, experience, and tenacity have been essential to help the committee navigate through the complexity in order to address the issues facing the CERP. Her perseverance and leadership have been critical in the development of this report. We were fortunate to have the services of Brendan McGovern to support the logistical needs of the committee and provide sage advice on local restaurants for memorable and productive dinners after committee meetings and field trips. Unfortunately, Brendan left the National Academies before the committee’s work was complete. His positive outlook, hard work, and stories have been missed. Fortunately, Brendan was replaced by Eric Edkin. Eric’s technical mastery was invaluable to the committee, particularly when it was necessary to transition to virtual meetings. Without these capable staff, the committee would have experienced difficulty meeting the challenge of this review and report.

Charles Driscoll, Chair
Committee on Independent Scientific Review of Everglades Restoration Progress

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Contents

SUMMARY

1 INTRODUCTION

2 THE RESTORATION PLAN IN CONTEXT

3 RESTORATION PROGRESS

4 COMBINED OPERATIONAL PLAN

5 ESTUARIES AND COASTAL SYSTEMS

6 SCIENCE TO SUPPORT DECISION MAKING

REFERENCES

APPENDIXES

A The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Everglades Reports

B Biographical Sketches of Committee Members and Staff

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Acronyms

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