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International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-72222-3
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Forecasting the Ocean: The 2025–2035 Decade of Ocean Science. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/27846.

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COMMITTEE FOR THE 2025–2035 DECADAL SURVEY OF OCEAN SCIENCES FOR THE NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION

TUBA ÖZKAN-HALLER (Co-Chair), Oregon State University

JAMES (JIM) YODER (Co-Chair), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (emeritus)

LIHINI ALUWIHARE, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego

MONA BEHL, University of Georgia

MARK D. BEHN, Boston College

BRAD deYOUNG, Canadian Integrated Ocean Observing System

CARLOS GARCIA-QUIJANO, University of Rhode Island

PETER GIRGUIS, Harvard University

LEILA J. HAMDAN, University of Southern Mississippi

MARCIA ISAKSON, Applied Research Laboratories, The University of Texas at Austin

JASON LINK, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

ALLISON MILLER, Schmidt Ocean Institute

S. BRADLEY MORAN, University of Alaska Fairbanks

RICHARD W. MURRAY, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (emeritus)

STEPHEN R. PALUMBI (NAS), Stanford University

ELLA (JOSIE) QUINTRELL, Integrated Ocean Observing System (retired)

YOSHIMI (SHIMI) M. RII, Hawaiʻi Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa

KRISTEN ST. JOHN, James Madison University

SAMUEL KERSEY STURDIVANT, INSPIRE Environmental

AJIT SUBRAMANIAM, Columbia University

MAYA TOLSTOY, University of Washington College of the Environment

SHANNON VALLEY, formerly Vistant

JAMES ZACHOS, University of California, Santa Cruz

Study Staff

KELLY OSKVIG, Senior Program Officer

ZOE ALEXANDER, Senior Program Assistant

OCEAN STUDIES BOARD

CLAUDIA BENITEZ-NELSON (Chair), University of South Carolina, Columbia

MARK R. ABBOTT, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

ROSANNA ‘ANOLANI ALEGADO, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa

CAROL ARNOSTI, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

AMY BOWER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

LISA M. CAMPBELL, Duke University

DANIEL COSTA, University of California, Santa Cruz

JOHN R. DELANEY, University of Washington (retired)

TIMOTHY GALLAUDET, Ocean STL Consulting, LLC

SCOTT GLENN, Rutgers University

MARCIA ISAKSON, Applied Research Laboratories, The University of Texas at Austin

LEKELIA JENKINS, Arizona State University

NANCY KNOWLTON (NAS), Smithsonian Institution (retired)

ANTHONY MACDONALD, Monmouth University

GALEN MCKINLEY, Columbia University

DAVID MILLAR, Fugro

THOMAS J. MILLER, University of Maryland, Solomons

S. BRADLEY MORAN, University of Alaska Fairbanks

LAURA MORTON, Perkins Coie

DEAN ROEMMICH (NAE), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego (retired)

JAMES SANCHIRICO, University of California, Davis

JYOTIKA VIRMANI, Schmidt Ocean Institute

PAUL WILLIAMS, Suquamish Tribe

Staff

SUSAN ROBERTS, Director

STACEE KARRAS, Senior Program Officer

KELLY OSKVIG, Senior Program Officer

CAROLINE BELL, Associate Program Officer

THANH NGUYEN, Financial Business Partner

DARRYL ACKER-CARTER, Research Associate

SAFAH WYNE, Senior Program Assistant

ZOE ALEXANDER, Senior Program Assistant

RACHEL AMHAUS, Program Assistant

Reviewers

This consensus study report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

MARK ABBOTT, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

ROSIE ‘ANOLANI ALEGADO, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa

PATRICK CHRISTIE, University of Washington

SCOTT DONEY, University of Virginia

SARAH T. GILLE, Scripps Institution of Oceanography

PATRICK HEIMBACH, University of Texas

KENNETH JOHNSON, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute

BO BARKER JØRGENSEN, Arhaus University

LISA LEVIN, Scripps Institution of Oceanography

CRAIG MCLEAN, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (retired)

STEVE MURAWSKI, University of South Florida

JOHN ORCUTT, Scripps Institution of Oceanography

AMELIA SHEVENELL, University of South Florida

AMY TRICE, Northeast Regional Ocean Council

MARTIN VISBECK, GEOMAR

EARLE WILSON, Stanford University

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report, nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by ANDREW SOLOW, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and DAVID KARL (NAS), University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.

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Acknowledgments

The committee thanks the following individuals for their contributions during the study process, especially for enriching and informing the discussions at the open session meetings of the committee: Merryl Alber (University of Georgia), Rosie Alegado (University of Hawaiʻi), James Allen (National Science Foundation [NSF]), Katie Arkema (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory), Katherine Barbeau (University of California, San Diego), Paul Barber (University of California, Los Angeles), Jack Barth (Oregon State University/Northwest Association of Networked Ocean Observing Systems [NANOOS]), Joey Bernhardt (University of Guelph), Jennifer Biddle (University of Delaware), Donna Blackman (University of California, San Diego), Tim Boyer (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA], National Centers for Environmental Information [NCEI]), Stefanie Brachfeld (Montclair State University), Carl Brenner (U.S. Science Support Program), Emily Brodsky (University of California, Santa Cruz), Deborah Bronk (Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences/University-National Oceanographic Laboratory System [UNOLS] Chair), Almesha Campbell (Jackson State University), Gabrielle Canonico (NOAA), Jackie Caplan-Auerbach (Western Washington University), Eric Chassignet (Florida State University), Shuyi Chen (University of Washington), Eric Cordes (Temple University), Sarah Davies (Boston University), John Delaney (University of Washington), Ed Dever (Oregon State University), Steven D’Hondt (University of Rhode Island), Emmett Duffy (Smithsonian Institute), Rose Dufour (NSF), Sonya Dyhrman (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory), Jim Edson (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution), Duane Elgin (author of Choosing Earth), Melanie Fewings (Oregon State University), Patrick Fulton (Cornell University), Amy Gartman (U.S. Geological Survey), Corey Garza (University of Washington), Peter Gerstoft (Scripps Institution of Oceanography), Sarah Giddings (Scripps Institution of Oceanography), Sarah Gille (Scripps Institution of Oceanography), Holly Greening (Tampa Bay Estuary Program), Karen Grissom (NOAA, NCEI), Zachary Gold (NOAA), Sean Gulick (The University of Texas at Austin), Patrick Heimbach (The University of Texas at Austin), David Hodell (University of Cambridge), Russ Hopcroft (University of Alaska Fairbanks), Bruce Howe (University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa), Celli Hull (Yale University), David Hutchins (University of Southern California), Minoru Ikehara (Kochi University), Fumio Inagaki (Japanese Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Alex Isern (NSF), Ken Johnson (Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute), Kevin Johnson (NSF), Brandon Jones (NSF), Henry Jones (University of Southern Mississippi), Maria Kavanaugh (Oregon State University), Deborah Kelley (University of Washington), Brandi Kiel Reese (University of South Alabama), Frieder Klein (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution), Anthony Koppers (Oregon State University), David Koweek (OceanVisions), Larry Krissek (The Ohio State University), Kristy Kroeker (University of California, Santa Cruz), Jessica Labonté (Texas A&M University at Galveston), Adriane Lam (Binghamton University), Craig Lee (University of Washington), Chris Lowery (The University of Texas at Austin), Kelly Lucas (University of Southern Mississippi), Mitch Malone (Texas A&M University), Kathie Marsaglia (California State University, Northridge), Robert McKay (Victoria University of Wellington), Galen McKinley (Columbia University), Margaret McManus (University of Hawaiʻi), Lisa McNeil (Southampton University), Diego Melgar (University of Oregon), Charna Meth (International Ocean Discovery Program Science Support Office), Steve Murawski (University of South Florida), Mark Ohman (University of California, San Diego), Kirsten Oleson (Pacific Research on Island Solutions for Adaptation), Beth Orcutt (Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences), Heiko Pälike (University of Bremen), Ross Parnell-Turner (Scripps Intuition of Oceanography), Malin Pinsky (University of California, Santa Cruz), Charlie Plybon (Surfrider Foundation), Julie Pullen (Propeller Ventures), Kanna Rajan (RAND), Becky Robinson (University of Rhode Island), Yair Rosenthal (Rutgers University), Doug Russell (UNOLS), Demian Saffer (The University of Texas at Austin), Prasanna Sattigeri (International Business Machines [IBM]), Robert Shearman (Office of Naval Research), Joe Schumacker (NANOOS), Daniel Sigman (Princeton University), David Smith (University of Rhode Island), Heidi Sosik (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution), Robert Sparrock (Office of Naval Research),

Robert Sterner (University of Minnesota Duluth), Mike Stukel (Florida State University), Chijun Sun (National Center for Atmospheric Research), Jason Sylvan (Texas A&M University), Lynne Talley (Scripps Institution of Oceanography), Allyson Tessin (Kent State University), Jeremy Testa (University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science Chesapeake Biological Laboratory), LuAnne Thompson (University of Washington), Masako Tominaga (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution), Aradhna Tripati (University of California, Los Angeles), Robert Twilley (Louisiana State University), Alexis Valauri-Orton (The Ocean Foundation), Maureen Walczak (Oregon State University), Allen Walker (NSF’s Technology, Innovation, and Partnership Directorate), Shelby Walker (NSF), Jessica Warren (University of Delaware), Doug Wiens (Washington University), Susan Wijffels (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution), William Wilcock (University of Washington), Trevor Williams (Texas A&M University), Warren Wood (U.S. Naval Research Laboratory), Christine Yifeng Chen (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory), and Zhongwen Zhan (California Institute of Technology). Their input was critical to the completion of the committee’s work.

The committee would also like to thank our primary contact at NSF’s Division of Ocean Sciences, Jim McManus, for his efforts in developing and sponsoring this study and for providing important documents and support upon the committee’s request.

Contents

SUMMARY

1 INTRODUCTION

The Importance of Ocean Science to the Nation and the Role of NSF

Study Context

Study Strategy

Identifying and Prioritizing Ocean Science Research Needs

Report Structure

2 URGENT OCEAN SCIENCE RESEARCH PORTFOLIO

Basic Research is Key

A Challenge for the Next Decade

2025–2035 Ocean Research Portfolio

Ocean and Climate

Ecosystem Resilience

Extreme Events

3 OPPORTUNITIES AND STRATEGIES FOR ACCELERATING PROGRESS IN OCEAN SCIENCE

A Transdisciplinary Collaborative Framework for Ocean Sciences

Workforce Development

Strategic Partnerships

4 FACILITIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE FOR THE NEXT DECADE

Major Facilities

Supporting Infrastructure

Underutilized and/or Emerging Observational Technologies

Cyberinfrastructure

5 A NEW DECADE OF OCEAN SCIENCE RESEARCH

Integrated Forecasts in Ocean Science

Regaining U.S. Leadership in Ocean Science

Implementation Amid Uncertainty

Measuring OCE’s Success

A New Decade, A New Approach

Conclusion

REFERENCES

APPENDIX A: COMMITTEE BIOGRAPHIES

APPENDIX B: COMMITTEE MEETING TOPICS

Boxes, Figures, and Tables

BOXES

1.1 Important Terminology Defined

1.2 Statement of Task

1.3 Evaluation Criteria for the 2025 Decadal Survey Research Priorities

2.1 The Challenge

2.2 The Ocean Carbon Cycle

2.3 Potential Impacts of Deep-Sea Mining

2.4 The Gulf Coast Hypoxic Zone

3.1 Transdisciplinary Research for All Communities

3.2 Embracing the Spirit of Cascadia

3.3 “All of Us”: The Tamamta Program

3.4 Workforce Development and the Blue Economy

3.5 Marine Laboratories as Training Ground for Emerging Ocean Scientists

4.1 Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI) Captures Submarine Eruption for the First Time

4.2 The Argo Program

5.1 The Polar Oceans: An “All Hands on Deck” Example

5.2 Coral Health: Interconnected Nature of Ocean Science

5.3 A Call to Action for Ocean Sciences

FIGURES

S.1 Path from basic research to meeting the challenge of the next decade

1.1 Publications resulting from decadal surveys of ocean sciences for the National Science Foundation

1.2 Graphic depiction of the difference between Multi-, Inter-, and Trans- disciplinary Research

2.1 Iterative process of predicting the ocean state

2.2 Interconnectivity and integration of the three 2025 Decadal Survey Priority Research Themes

2.3 Ocean carbon cycles

2.4 Carbon dioxide and pH changes at Station ALOHA in the North Pacific, from 1958 to 2024

2.5 Multidecadal acceleration in global ocean warming

2.6 A coral garden observed at a depth of 2365 meters

2.7 Hypoxic zone extending offshore from the Mississippi River basin

3.1 Man carries his belongings to safety after a flooding in Mozambique

3.2 Workshop on Navigating Coastal Hazards, March 2024

3.3 Tamamta Fellow Elizabeth Mik’aq Lindley (Yup’ik) holding a sayak (or sockeye) on the Kuskokwim River, 2017

3.4 Offshore wind project off Virginia Beach

3.5 Trends in graduate students and academic positions in ocean science

3.6 Participants in the Partnership for Advanced Marine and Environmental Science Training for Pacific Islanders

3.7 The road to partnership is the road less traveled

4.1 Time series of fiscal year actual expenditures for research and major facilities funded by the National Science Foundation’s Division of Ocean Studies (OCE)

4.2 Three regional-class research vessels are under construction

4.3 Aging vessel replacements within the Academic Research Fleet

4.4 Publications citing data from the Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI) (upper panel) and National Science Foundation awards for OOI research (lower panel)

4.5 Schematic showing the cabled observatory, including the instrument locations on the Axial Seamount and the cable bring real-time data to scientists located on shore

4.6 Changes in JOIDES Resolution operational funding streams during the second International Ocean Discovery Program

4.7 Locations of the 99 labs that are members of the National Association of Marine Labs

4.8 Global distribution of Argo floats as of September 12, 2024

4.9 Saildrone that recorded 196-day time series of the flux of carbon dioxide at the surface of the Southern Ocean

5.1 Aerial view of a container ship in icy waters of the Arctic Ocean (upper) and scientific research vessel Polarstern conducting research in the Southern Ocean adjacent to the floating ice shelf of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (lower)

5.2 Shallow water coral reef supporting an array of marine life in at Palmyra Atoll National Wildlife Refuge

5.3 From basic research to forecasts of ocean processes at human scales

TABLES

2.1 Urgent Priorities for Ocean Sciences Research, 2025–2035

2.2 Categories of Ocean-Based Extreme Events

3.1 Four Phases of a Transdisciplinary (TD) Team-Based Research Model

4.1 Infrastructure Needs to Address Urgent Priorities for Ocean Sciences Research, 2025–2035

4.2 Status of Ships in the Academic Research Fleet

4.3 Participants Among Science Parties on Expeditions of the Academic Research Fleet

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Preface

Our committee members represent a broad range of backgrounds and shared many different perspectives on the content of our report. We thank them for their hard work, for the respect they showed each other during our many in-person and online discussions, and for their contributions. It was an easy group to coordinate. We also thank the presenters and those who responded to our requests for information. Much of their input is represented in the report. We thank the staff of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, who did such an excellent job arranging the logistics for our meetings; we are especially grateful to Kelly Oskvig for her guidance throughout the study and her many contributions to the organization and writing of the report. She provided the glue that held us together throughout the study.

Our statement of task is significantly more complicated than the one that led to the 2015 report Sea Change: 2015–2025 Decadal Survey of Ocean Sciences, whose statement of task was focused on achieving a balance between funds spent on major facilities (academic fleet, ocean observatories, and ocean drilling) and those supporting ocean research programs. In contrast, the statement of task for the present report requested the committee’s thoughts on future research directions and the tools required to support that research. In recognition of the changes to the research environment that have occurred during the past decade, we were also asked for recommendations on innovative research strategies and workforce training. The latter is particularly important given the significant demographic changes occurring in our country, as well as the recognition that we need to pay more attention to different sources and forms of knowledge. We not only have to engage a broad demographic to provide scientists and technicians to work in our field, but we also have to demonstrate to the U.S. population that it is getting value from the ocean research that its tax dollars support. Thus our committee appropriately spent as much time discussing and then writing about research strategies and workforce as on research questions and infrastructure.

We hope readers will appreciate and support our recommendations for future research directions, the tools that we believe are required, the different approach to research that we believe is necessary, and the efforts that are required to recruit a future ocean sciences workforce. We have much work to do, and we hope that everyone in the ocean sciences community will bring their talents to realizing this vision. We need all hands on deck.

Tuba Özkan-Haller, Co-Chair

James Yoder, Co-Chair

Committee on the 2025–2035 Decadal Survey of
Ocean Sciences for the National Science Foundation

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Acronyms and Abbreviations