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Introduction

This report was developed to advise the National Science Foundation’s (NSF’s) Division of Ocean Sciences (OCE) on a research, infrastructure, and workforce development strategy for advancing the understanding of the ocean’s role in the Earth system from 2025 to 2035 and beyond. Although the recommendations are specific to OCE, many of the actions will be made more impactful by the involvement of other agencies and organizations as research advances are used to tackle ocean-related problems and opportunities.

The ocean is a life-sustaining reservoir that connects humankind and provides essential resources such as food, energy, minerals, medicines, and recreation opportunities, all of which contribute to U.S. economic competitiveness and well-being for individuals and communities. The ocean also generates hazardous conditions that impact communities near coasts, where half of the world’s population resides, as well as those farther inland, which are impacted indirectly. Thus, every person on Earth is affected—at times positively and other times negatively—by the condition of the ocean. This is emphasized in the following headlines from 2024 that refer to events directly influenced by the ocean:

“Cold Weather Businesses Suffer in the Winter That Wasn’t”—The Wall Street Journal, March 8 (Carlton, 2024)

“‘Rivers in the Sky’ Have Drenched California, and yet Ever More Extreme Rains are Possible”—Los Angeles Times, April 25 (Toohey, 2024)

“The Drowning South: Where Seas are Rising at Alarming Speed”—The Washington Post, April 29 (Mooney et al., 2024)

“Ocean Temperatures Surge, Threatening Worst Coral Bleaching Event in History, Scientists Say”—Fox News, May 17 (“Ocean Temperatures…”, 2024)

“Storms Again Strike Texas, Leaving Hundreds of Thousands Without Power”—The Wall Street Journal, May 29 (Pisani, 2024)

“Unprecedented Ocean Temperatures Make This Hurricane Season Especially Dangerous”—USA Today, June 2 (Pulver, 2024)

“Watch the Glacier Outburst That Sent a Surge of Water Into Juneau, Causing ‘Unprecedented’ Flooding”—CNN, August 7 (Zerkel, 2024)

“How Close are the Planet’s Climate Tipping Points? Earth’s Warming Could Trigger Sweeping Changes in the Natural World That Would Be Hard, if not Impossible, to Reverse”—The New York Times, August 11 (Zhong and Rojanasakul, 2024)

“A Climate-Related Mass Die-Off Leaves Over 100 Tons of Dead Fish Collecting at a Greek Port”—Associated Press News, August 30 (Kousioras and Gatopoulos, 2024)

“The Hottest Summer on Record Could Lead to our Warmest Year Ever Measured. Again.”—PBS, September 6 (Borenstein, 2024)

These headlines all describe events that were influenced by the ocean; they point to the importance of the ocean to human well-being and demonstrate the need to better understand how the ocean functions. Coastal communities and infrastructure are impacted by increased flooding events, both extreme and chronic. The repercussions of these impacts range from impaired human health and direct injury to economic losses. Warming ocean waters are also driving extreme weather across the globe, impacting lives, economies, and national security. Rising sea levels (Wong et al., 2017), altered circulation patterns, changes in the acidity of ocean water, and geographic shifts in ocean ecosystems (Garcia-Soto et al., 2021) are all being observed. In addition, the ocean feeds and provides key nutrients to hundreds of millions of people; but the sustainability of this food source is uncertain, as seafood and shellfish industries are impacted by the acidification of the ocean waters, the presence of harmful algal blooms, and the emergence of low-oxygen zones. Adaptation and mitigation strategies are needed to preserve or even enhance the livelihood of communities being affected.

Both basic and applied research in the field of ocean sciences are key to developing more accurate forecasting of ocean and seafloor processes that affect the lives and well-being of humans and all other species on the planet. This forecasting can enable society to realize emerging ocean-oriented opportunities for food sources and energy security. Scientific progress over the last few decades has been significant, fueled in part by advances in observational technologies and increased availability of computational resources. Yet the need is urgent to further accelerate scientific progress and rapidly deploy the new understanding to advance forecasting capabilities. NSF’s funding of basic research, coupled with enhanced partnerships with mission agencies, can make this vision a reality.

Producing and validating forecasts is an excellent way to test the level of understanding of an ocean process and its effects on the Earth system. For example, forecasts of changes to surface salinity over large areas of the ocean can be used to determine rates of evaporation and ultimately to make long-term (monthly) forecasts of continental rainfall patterns (Li et al., 2016). In fact, these forecasts are so accurate that Salient,¹ a for-profit company, can market its long-term rainfall forecasts for agricultural and other applications. This example is not yet typical of ocean sciences, and accurate forecasts cannot yet be produced for many societally important phenomena, owing to a lack of understanding of causal linkages. For example, following a series of heat waves between 2018 to 2021, the snow crab fishery in the eastern Bering Sea collapsed unexpectedly (Szuwalski et al., 2023). The ability to forecast such an event would have aided in mitigating the impact on the fishing economy. Another example involves Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the dominant circulation system in the North Atlantic, which includes the Gulf Stream. AMOC affects climate and sea level on both sides of the Atlantic. Questions as to whether this important circulation system is slowing remain unresolved (e.g., Rahmstorf, 2024; Roquet and Wunsch, 2022). Much depends on the answer, as an AMOC slowdown has potentially serious consequences for the United States and other countries bordering the North Atlantic. For a final example, results from highly sensitive measurements are taken from sensors placed in boreholes by ocean drilling vessels, active seismic measurements from oceanographic vessels, and passive seismic and geodetic measurements from ocean bottom seismometers and other instruments deployed on the seafloor; these measurements are revealing the precursors to significant ocean earthquakes. Sustaining and improving these measurements raises the possibility of more accurate forecasts for the location and timing of seafloor earthquakes.

Moving from understanding ocean processes to forecasting them is an important step that could have significant societal benefit. U.S. scientific progress in these areas will require embracing new tools from computational science, artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learning; reinvesting in ocean science infrastructure and core science research; curating vast sets of ocean data; developing new sensors; fully utilizing advances in robotics, environmental genomic analysis, and acoustics capabilities; and thinking creatively about how to utilize existing underwater infrastructure, such as communication cables, for science. Accelerating ocean science knowledge also requires international collaborations, U.S. public–private partnerships, thoughtful consideration of data management, and broadening participation to ensure that all ways

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¹ See https://salientpredictions.com.

of knowing are incorporated. In short, the field of ocean science must transform so that research advancements are accelerated and can be applied rapidly to the issues that the United States and our planet face now and in the near future. OCE continues to play a crucial role in these efforts.

This report highlights forward-looking areas of basic ocean science research that will advance the understanding of the ocean in ways that can lead to more accurate forecasting of ocean conditions and their impact on all forms of life. Note that the basic research that would lead to more accurate forecasting would clearly fall under OCE’s purview, while incorporating the resulting new understanding into operational forecasting models would be carried out by other federal agencies or through private industry. The report also identifies new and innovative ways of conducting basic research to improve the ability to forecast the future ocean, and in doing so, create the workforce and partnerships needed to succeed—this is an “all hands on deck” approach.

THE IMPORTANCE OF OCEAN SCIENCE TO THE NATION AND THE ROLE OF NSF

The ocean’s importance to national security, leadership in science, a prosperous economy, and the health and well-being of humans has long been recognized by U.S. taxpayers, garnering bipartisan funding and policy support for decades.

National Security and Scientific Leadership

Federal funding of ocean research and technology began in the mid-1800s with the establishment of the Naval Observatory and Hydrographic Office; this funding was accelerated during World War II through the U.S. Navy. Knowledge of the ocean is critical to defending the country’s coastlines and those of allies, and knowledge of the weather affects all defense operations.

In this century, the changing ocean is already affecting national security. For example, the Department of Defense (DOD) noted that the dramatically altered natural environment of the Arctic is “creating a new frontier of geostrategic competition” (DOD, 2021, p. 6), and that more than 1,700 DOD sites could be affected by sea level rise (DOD, n.d.). DOD also recognizes that it “relies on authoritative scientific data and modeling provided by USG [U.S. Government] science agencies,” such as NSF (DOD, 2021, p. 14). Since its establishment in 1950, NSF has supported academic research on a broad set of ocean topics.

In 2011, members of the U.S. Senate formed an Oceans Caucus to stress the importance of the ocean and its crucial role in all aspects of life. Additionally, the White House established the Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology (SOST) to coordinate federal actions related to ocean issues; this group issued the report Science and Technology for America’s Oceans: A Decadal Vision (SOST, 2018), which identified five goals for the decade of the 2000s, including (1) understanding the ocean in the Earth system and (2) developing resilient coastal communities. The goals were emphasized in the 2023 Ocean Climate Action Plan (OPC, 2023a), among other efforts.

For many decades, NSF’s OCE has supported ocean science research—primarily basic research at academic institutions. This research has provided fundamental new insights into the ocean’s role in the Earth system. OCE also provides most of the operating funds for the Academic Research Fleet (ARF); operates the mooring arrays and other equipment of the Ocean Observatories Initiative; and, through 2024, operated the JOIDES Resolution, the only deep-ocean drilling vessel widely available to the U.S. research community and its international partners. OCE-sponsored research spans the global ocean, enabling the U.S. oceanographic research community to lead the world in a breadth of ocean discoveries.

Today, the U.S. ocean science enterprise is at a crossroads, and U.S. leadership in this field is in jeopardy. In 2024, NSF announced the cessation of the cooperative agreement to manage the JOIDES Resolution, leaving the United States without the capability to collect cores in most of the global ocean and challenging the country’s multidecadal leadership in this field. The rest of the ARF is also aging, and the new fleet of regional-class research vessels will not begin operations for several years. Meanwhile, other countries, such as China, are investing heavily in ocean science infrastructure, particularly as it relates to deep-sea exploration (Normile, 2024; Varbanov, 2023). In combination, these events leave the United

States without the infrastructure needed to support its leadership in science, technology, and engineering (NASEM, 2024a, 2024b, 2024c; NSB, 2024).

The Blue Economy

The ocean supports important resources and services—including food, energy, mineral resources, medicines, transportation and trade, and recreation—that benefit humans and society and overall U.S. economic competitiveness. The blue economy is the sum of the economic activities of ocean-based industries, together with the assets, goods, and ecosystem services provided by marine environments.

In 2018, the ocean supported roughly 2.3 million jobs in the United States, accounting for 1.5 percent of total U.S. employment (Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2020). And, as of 2022, the annual blue economy was estimated at 476.2 billion U.S. dollars (USD) (Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2024). Globally, the blue economy is projected to reach at least 3 trillion USD and to double its growth rate by 2030 (OECD, 2016). This sets the global blue economy as one of the seven largest economies in the world. A sustainable and thriving blue economy will require strategic management practices informed by improved understanding and forecasting of ocean processes.

Health and Well-Being

The ocean strongly influences conditions, including the climate, for human life on Earth. Since the industrial revolution, the ocean has absorbed 90 percent of excess heat, serving a major role in modulating the climate and making more of Earth’s land habitable—although this buffering service has come at a cost. Global, regional, and local ocean conditions impact communities in significant ways, and as the ocean becomes warmer and fresher (with increased glacier and sea ice melt), the impacts are becoming more severe and are compounding.

Warming waters can lead to increasing intensity of storms forming over the ocean, which bring high wind and wave action and heavy rainfall (including far inland, as seen in the mountains of North Carolina during Hurricane Helene in 2024) that can have catastrophic impacts on people, infrastructure, and habitats. The Pacific Islands—including but not limited to the Hawaiian Islands, Samoa, Guam, the Marshall Islands, and Micronesia—are among those areas that will be vulnerable earliest, as are communities in Alaska, which also experience the impacts of melting permafrost and loss in ice cover that can otherwise protect the coastlines from the destructive impacts of storms. Warming waters are also causing rising sea levels, which further amplify the impacts from the storms as well as intrusion of saltwater into groundwater and impacting freshwater supply in aquifers.

Globally, the ocean’s coastline is home to roughly half the human population. Nationally, U.S. coastal zones (<100km to ocean) represent less than 10 percent of the U.S. land area yet are now home to about 40 percent of residents, with a growth rate from 1970 to 2020 of 46 percent (NSF, 2024d). These communities are directly connected with the ocean and are acutely impacted by increased storms, coastal flooding, and atmospheric rivers dropping increased amounts of rainfall (Rhoades et al., 2020). Their livelihoods and, in many cases, their very existence depend on responsible stewardship of the ocean and its resources, informed through different knowledge systems, ocean science research, and development of decision-making tools. For example, fishing communities and the commercial fishing industry are being impacted by hazards related to shifting fish stock distributions, degradation of suitable habitats, ocean acidification, harmful algal blooms, and low-oxygen zones (Gobler and Baumann, 2016).

The crucial role the ocean plays in global health and human well-being is embodied in the 2021 declaration of the United Nations Decade of Ocean Sciences for Sustainable Development (2021–2030), “by providing natural and innovative solutions to global challenges, from climate change to poverty eradication, the development of ocean sciences is essential for social, economic and environmental balance of the planet”.² Society needs accurate forecasts of many important and often dramatic changes occurring to the

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² See https://www.unesco.org/en/underwater-heritage/un-decade.

Earth system, including ocean and seafloor processes, that affect the life and well-being of all species on the planet. Basic research to support such work is critical.

STUDY CONTEXT

Decadal surveys conducted by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine offer an opportunity for the science community to gather and reach consensus about science priorities for the next decade in a given field. In many cases, they include assessments of progress made towards research priorities identified in the previous decadal survey for that field. The present survey, referred to as the 2025 Decadal Survey, addresses ocean science research priorities for 2025–2035. It builds on and assesses progress since the 2015–2025 survey, referred to as the 2015 Decadal Survey, and its report, Sea Change (NRC, 2015), and also incorporates conclusions from the 2025 Decadal Survey interim report, released in 2024, focused on research and infrastructure priorities for scientific ocean drilling (NASEM, 2024b; Figure 1.1). See Box 1.1 for definitions of important terms used in this report.

2015–2025 Decadal Survey of Ocean Sciences

The ocean science community engaged with the concept of a decadal survey for the first time with the release of the report Sea Change: 2015–2025 Decadal Survey of Ocean Sciences (NRC, 2015; see Figure 1.1), produced at NSF’s request. At the time, there was intense concern about the portion of OCE’s budget that was being used to support research infrastructure compared with funds spent on individual or collaborative research projects and programs (the “core science” programs). More specifically, in 2012, approximately half of OCE’s budget supported research infrastructure, with the trend at the time indicating that operation and maintenance costs of infrastructure would continue to increase. The absence of significant increases in the OCE budget would result in a net reduction of funding for future research programs.

The 2015 Decadal Survey committee ultimately recommended that, during times of flat or reduced budget, “infrastructure expenses should not be allowed to escalate at the expense of core research programs” and use of a fixed ratio for infrastructure costs relative to the total budget would help ensure that one part of the budget does not increase at the expense of the other (NRC, 2015, p. 4). After receiving the 2015 Decadal Survey report, NSF balanced the budget between research and infrastructure through economized and prioritized infrastructure spending. This involved decisions to cut infrastructure costs from three main

areas: (1) the Ocean Drilling Program: funding for the U.S. Science Support Program was decreased, with a request for more support from international partners; (2) the Ocean Observatories Initiative: two Southern Ocean moorings were removed from the portfolio as part of strategic reductions in certain operations; and (3) the ARF: funding was limited for the operation of the R/V Marcus G. Langseth. The result of these budget cuts was the transfer of funds from infrastructure to OCE core research, creating the even split between infrastructure costs and funding of research, as recommended. That balance has remained, more or less; however, the last few years have seen increased infrastructure costs, particularly due to operating an aging ARF, while the total OCE budget has remained the same.

This report generally uses the term forecasting, with the intent that vital basic and use-inspired research will lead to the ability to narrow the time windows and confidence of forecasts for extreme events at scales that matter for humankind, from earthquakes to extreme weather to rising sea levels and changes in ocean circulation.

The 2015 Decadal Survey also suggested a set of “Priority Science Questions for 2015–2025,” eight high-level science questions that included topics that manifest at the ocean’s surface, in water column processes, and on the seafloor. The research questions were broad, and research on each of them is ongoing; importantly, progress has been made not only by NSF but also through multiagency and international efforts and by the marine science community at large, and the questions remain relevant a decade later. A recommended best practice for the current decadal survey is to evaluate progress executed on these priority questions retrospectively. High-level examples of important progress made toward answering the 2015 Decadal Survey priority questions include the following:

• Sea level change: identified and clearly documented the acceleration of global sea level rise (Hamlington et al., 2024; IPCC, 2021) and contributions from ice sheet loss (The IMBIE Team et al., 2018, 2020; Wallis et al., 2023); elucidated factors that cause and/or contribute to regional sea level change, including atmospheric and oceanic processes (e.g., circulation) and land uplift and subsidence (Blackwell et al., 2020; Buzzanga et al., 2023; Dangendorf et al., 2024; Hamlington et al., 2020; Walker et al., 2023).
• Ocean’s role in modulating Earth’s climate: definitively calculated that the ocean has absorbed 90 percent of the excess heat produced by greenhouse gas warming (von Schuckmann et al., 2023) and 30 percent of the carbon dioxide (CO₂) released by fossil fuel emissions (Gruber et al., 2023), thus acting as a regulator to the climate known today; conclusively stated that 16 million years ago was the last time CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere were consistently higher than today (The Cenozoic CO₂ Proxy Integration Project Consortium, 2023); developed an improved understanding of the connection between AMOC and heat and carbon uptake by the ocean (Caínzos et al., 2022; Fontela et al., 2016), indicating that the strength of AMOC is closely tied to possible tipping points of future circulation scenarios (Ritchie et al., 2021).
• Importance of biodiversity: linked the resilience of marine ecosystems to perturbations of their fundamental biodiversity (Duffy et al., 2016; O’Leary et al., 2017); scientifically described new species of ocean organisms across all taxonomic groups, made possible by advances in biotechnology tools (Jansson et al., 2023; Longo et al., 2022; Shin and Allmon, 2023; Teramura et al.,

• 2022), discovering that the deep biosphere holds a remarkable reservoir of genetic and taxonomic prokaryotic diversity on the planet (Bar-On et al., 2018); detailed how marine biodiversity affects marine ecosystem resilience and how both diversity and resilience are linked to patterns of marine food web structure.
• Forecasting geohazards: increased the ability to forecast earthquakes, fault slippage, and volcanic activity (Nooner and Chadwick, 2016; Obara and Kato, 2016; Panet et al., 2018; Ruiz et al., 2014; Socquet et al., 2017; Tan et al., 2016; Wilcock et al., 2016); improved predictability and early warning systems for tsunamis (Melgar and Hayes, 2019; Williamson et al., 2020).
• Carbon sequestration in the deep ocean: learned that microbial communities in the subsurface biosphere are playing a quantitatively relevant role in carbon removal (Kiel Reese et al., 2021; Shah Walter et al., 2018; Trembath-Reichert et al., 2021) and that the subseafloor ecosystem is home to the largest reservoir of microbial biodiversity and organic carbon on the planet (Jørgensen and Marshall, 2016).
• Exploring the depths of the Earth: drilled deeper into the Earth’s mantle than ever before, while constraining conditions associated with the origin of life (IODP Leg 399 (McCaig et al., 2024).

Changing Times

The 2025 Decadal Survey is responding to a research landscape markedly different from that observed in the 2015 Decadal Survey. The balance between investments in research versus infrastructure still must be monitored and assessed strategically. But concerns have also risen around the balance between investments in basic research versus use-inspired or applied research. Underlying this concern is the increasing demand for applied research to resolve the global environmental problems society is facing.

NSF has shifted priorities beyond primary basic research to include use-inspired research with direct societal benefits. NSF’s program Coastlines and People (CoPe) is an example of a use-inspired and interdisciplinary program that supports basic and applied research at the intersections between the natural, built, and social systems, with the goal of increasing resilience among the U.S. coastal populations and ecosystems. One important component of the CoPe program is expanding the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) workforce. CoPe projects engage not only natural and social scientists but also community members to co-produce knowledge, and they weave impartiality into their design and implementation.

Further supporting use-inspired research and development, the Directorate for Technology, Innovation and Partnerships (TIP) was established in 2022 through the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors and Science Act (known as the CHIPS Act) to advance U.S. competitiveness in STEM through investments that accelerate the development of key technologies and address pressing societal and economic challenges (NSF, 2024d). The TIP Directorate crosscuts the other six NSF research directorates to support co-design and co-development of multidisciplinary research aimed at translation from lab to market.

The Directorate of Geosciences (GEO), which houses OCE, has also made strides toward encouraging new partnerships both within and outside of NSF, as seen in the 2023 launch of the Division of Research, Innovation, Synergies and Education (RISE). As stated by NSF (n.d.-a), “The mission of RISE is to foster transdisciplinary collaborations that engage the broader geosciences community to drive transformative discoveries, innovations in workforce development, and use-inspired solutions for urgent Earth system challenges”.³

While NSF and GEO have introduced new programs such as TIP and RISE, other programs have an uncertain future. Most notably, in 2023, OCE announced that the existing contract securing the workhorse of the U.S. scientific drilling program, the research vessel JOIDES Resolution, would not be renewed, thus ending the current phase of the program in 2024.

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³ See https://www.demo.nsf.gov/geo/rise/about.

In 2024, this committee released the 2025 Decadal Survey interim report, Progress and Priorities in Ocean Drilling: In Search of Earth’s Past and Future, to provide advice on scientific research priorities and infrastructure needed to advance vital and urgent research priorities (NASEM, 2024b). The report also outlines what science questions can and cannot be addressed with existing infrastructure in the absence of a dedicated drilling vessel. The release of the report was followed by an announcement that the U.S. scientific ocean drilling program would transition to using a mission-specific platform model for at least the next 5 years. In July 2024, NSF announced the formation of a new subcommittee to outline the key infrastructure requirements of a new scientific ocean drilling platform that could meet requirements outlined by the scientific community while also meeting budgetary constraints (NSF, 2024c).

OCE is the only significant source of basic oceanographic research funding in the United States, and its focus of understanding fundamental ocean processes is necessary and needs to remain. This report highlights how basic and solutions-oriented science are beginning to intertwine; basic science understanding must underlie applied solutions in order for those solutions to be robust. This growing, intertwining relationship between basic and solutions-oriented science elevates the possibilities of integrating with other NSF programs and directorates, as well as other federal, state, and private funding entities.

Infrastructure and Workforce

Serious concerns impacting the effectiveness of ocean science research include the declining state of U.S. scientific infrastructure and maintaining a highly skilled U.S. workforce. Much of the critical infrastructure used in ocean science research, such as the ARF and the JOIDES Resolution (NASEM, 2024b), buoys, satellite systems, and marine laboratories need replacement or significant upgrades. The current replacement strategy is insufficient for satisfying today’s needs and realizing scientific interests that align with environmental justice matters, including greater investment in capacity-building through constructing and maintaining research infrastructure (Ortner, 2013).

Additionally, a large portion of experienced ocean scientists and technical staff are retiring, working less, or need to adjust to new tools and technologies. For example, the commercial fishing community is experiencing a “graying of the fleet”—an increase in the average age of commercial fishermen, with fewer individuals entering the industry, leading to concerns about the future sustainability and resilience of fishing communities (Cramer et al., 2018; Haugen et al., 2021; Johnson and Mazur, 2018). Training for intergenerational scientific knowledge and skills-building, as well as training for new technology and tools, are needed for all career levels. This also includes training in collaborative processes and project management, as projects shift to become transdisciplinary in nature.

Technological Advancements

The last decade has also seen the significant development of new platforms and sensors and improved approaches to system integration to enable sampling not previously possible, although a need for coordinated and expanded sustainable ocean observations remains (NASEM, 2017a, 2020). Autonomous surface and underwater platforms are more widely available and are becoming effective tools for collecting a large amount of data in the ocean, expanding the footprint of traditional research vessels. While few of these developments can be credited to a single agency, NSF’s role has been to catalyze the basic research needed for the initial development and deployment of technologies and enabling their transfer to mission agencies.

For example, while the technology for the roughly 3,900 Argo floats that now regularly sample the global ocean was developed in part with NSF funding, the current Argo program is largely funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Specifically, NSF has made a large investment to deploy over 500 Biogeochemical Argo (BGC-Argo) floats to supplement the Argo program (Matsumoto et al., 2022; NSF, 2019).

Ocean gliders are also regularly deployed across continental shelves, providing a snapshot of global ocean shelf conditions. One example of ocean glider deployment on a large scale is through a program called Boundary Ocean Observing Network, which remotely observes ocean environments, sharing data

that are immediately relevant to coastal communities (Rudnick et al., 2017). Another example is the development of ecogenomic sensors on long-range gliders (Pargett et al., 2015).

New ocean sensors have been developed, such as distributed acoustic sensors on fiber optic cables; optical sensors that image and identify plankton and other organisms; and biogeochemical sensors that measure oxygen, nitrate, pH, and ocean alkalinity. The introduction of sensors such as passive acoustics (Yang et al., 2015) and biogeochemical sensors has also been funded through partnerships such as NOAA’s National Oceanographic Partnership Program. These sensors provide critical (and difficult to sample) observations of the ocean’s interior (Johnson et al., 2022).

The ability to integrate sensors into existing platforms has also increased significantly by commercialization and miniaturization of these sensors. It is now easier, faster and less expensive to add sensors to an existing platform or to build an integrated sensor array. Moreover, new approaches have been designed that allow scientists to partner with industry to leverage seafloor cables for seismic monitoring. Real-time communication and data storage costs have also been lowered, broadening access to agencies or communities utilizing the data for management actions. However, fundamental constraints remain, such as the limitations of data transmission underwater, the costs for real-time satellite communication and data transfer, and the large volumes of data exceeding the capacity of existing repositories.

Furthermore, over the last decade, the availability and usability of numerical models has increased significantly. Increased use of ocean and subseafloor models are the result of several key advancements, including (1) the availability of robust, well-understood physical models through accessible platforms, providing open-source code and a distributed version control system; (2) the development of model-sharing in key research areas such as climate and ice forecasting through model intercomparison projects; and (3) the integration of biogeochemical models, inclusion of human dimensions data, and, to a lesser extent, coupling of biological models into physical models. These models and model results are now used by researchers regularly at many different stages of their research program. And many of these models are now being adapted to take advantage of widely available computing infrastructure, such as cloud and GPU computing. The effort now required to access or apply a model has been substantially reduced thanks to these advances. The use of numerical models to help answer robust scientific research questions has thus become more prevalent, enabling researchers to extract meaning from their data faster and more effectively, and to understand where gaps in ocean data occur (Graw et al., 2021).

The availability of models to run routine forecasts and hindcasts of ocean conditions has also increased significantly. For example, new machine learning methods, such as applying AI to model forecasting, are still in their infancy but offer promise for studying geophysical processes and making accurate ocean “weather” forecasts (Price et al., 2025). It is important to note that the numerical models are still far from perfect, and the need exists for improving understanding of dynamics within the models, specifically the coupling of biological/biogeochemical processes with physical processes to forecast with any accuracy the response of ocean systems to global change. Basic ocean science research, such as targeted and sustained ocean observations, are sorely needed to inform and improve the models and thus the forecast.

Additionally, because of data limitations, many machine learning models require high-fidelity simulations as training sets. The effect of inaccuracies in simulated training data is not well-understood, driving the need to improve the underlying models. High-resolution geologic records from the subseafloor, which provide paleo-analogs for possible future ocean and climate states, are also needed to inform and improve the models and thus the forecasts. In addition, geophysical observations are required to test new generations of models for earthquake ruptures, landslide generation, and volcanic eruptions.

Societal Shifts

Over the last decade, societal developments have changed within the ocean science landscape. This led to initiatives and efforts at sector levels to bring forth the importance and benefits of a more multifaceted approach to ocean sciences, ensuring that all people have opportunities to have access to, contribute to, and benefit from ocean research. This approach acknowledges that access to ocean science has been limited,

and it seeks to expand engagement beyond academia through knowledge-sharing and capacity-strengthening. Such initiatives aim to realize scientific excellence from more perspectives, strengthening its rigor and societal relevance. These concepts were not addressed in the last decadal survey but have been discussed throughout the deliberations of the current committee.

Coastal counties are often more demographically heterogeneous than noncoastal counties (U.S. Census Bureau, 2019). However, the scientific community does not generally resemble the demographics of coastal communities (Harris et al., 2022). This mismatch may limit the value of research if is not relevant to the communities or if the scientific findings are not effectively communicated (Behl et al., 2021; Harris et al., 2022). Increasing participation of those underrepresented sectors in the ocean science enterprise contributes to sustaining the nation’s capacity for innovation and discovery. These underutilized constituencies have great potential to improve outcomes in both basic and applied sciences.

Need for Renewed Leadership in Ocean Research

The decade covered by the 2015 Decadal Survey ended on a challenging note, with budget cuts to NSF and significant budget cuts to OCE announced. The loss of the scientific drillship and the mismatch between the delivery of new research vessels and retirement of the old reduced the United States’s capacity to send scientists out to sea. These are instructive lessons on the need for long-term planning for the future of ocean science, especially as it involves specialized infrastructure. Now is the time for the United States to invest and take leadership in the ocean science priorities required for a healthy, predicted, and understood ocean, which is critical for national security and economic prosperity in the next decade and beyond.

2025–2035 Decadal Survey of Ocean Sciences

As the next decade (2025–2035) approached, NSF asked the National Academies to develop a new decadal survey to provide guidance to the agency on research and infrastructure strategies to address priority research questions surrounding ocean and Earth system science. Specifically, NSF sought advice on how to incorporate use-inspired research into its 2025–2035 research portfolio in a way that complements the traditional emphasis on basic research. In so doing, it recognized that strategies for the next decade need to take advantage of new technological advances and capabilities, as well as strategic partnerships.

Additionally, the committee was tasked with advising NSF on potential changes in workforce training and support needed to address the new research priorities, such as building transdisciplinary teams and strategies for using scientific information to help address societal challenges. This includes considering goals for broadening access and participation with an embracive lens in the ocean sciences and how progress toward these goals should be measured and reported.

The 2025 Decadal Survey was developed to ensure that OCE will continue to provide the foundation for ocean science contributions, not only within NSF but also across the federal agencies that use ocean science to accomplish their missions. The committee’s statement of task is provided in Box 1.2.

STUDY STRATEGY

The committee met with representatives from NSF to ensure its interpretation of the statement of task (Box 1.2) aligns with sponsor expectations. The committee’s interpretation of the task is that OCE will continue to fund basic research across the ocean sciences, as it has always done. The purpose of the 2025 Decadal Survey is to highlight a few (2–3) use-inspired and societally relevant research priorities that OCE—together with other NSF units and with agencies and organizations outside NSF—could also invest in to address urgent questions surrounding ocean and Earth system science. The research priorities put forward in this report are intended to add to, and not replace, continued funds for basic research. Additionally, OCE is not looking to the 2025 Decadal Survey for advice on budget balancing nor specifics on how to accomplish the research agenda. Rather, the committee was tasked with identifying a few focus areas and the infrastructure (both physical and human resources) needed to advance U.S. ocean science research by 2035.

Convening and Information-Gathering

To complete this study, the project included convening an ad hoc committee of 23 ocean science researchers and practitioners, representing a wide range of discipline, institution, sector, geography, age, race, and ethnicity (their biographies are included in Appendix A). The committee’s expertise was augmented by additional invited professionals to join the information-gathering sessions described in the following section. Hybrid committee meetings were held over the course of roughly a year for information-gathering and closed committee deliberations, as well as monthly virtual committee meetings and various topical subcommittee meetings.

From June 2023 to July 2024, the committee held six 2-day hybrid meetings at various locations around the United States, and monthly 2-hour full committee meetings to gather information, deliberate, and write and publish the interim and final reports. During these meetings, 101 experts were invited to speak with the committee on various topics. The information-gathering portions of all meetings were open to the public and recorded and archived on the project’s website.⁴ Appendix B includes agendas for all public meetings. Through these public meetings, the committee heard arguments for future research broadly needed across the physical, chemical, biological, and marine geological and geophysical sciences, including from experts on applied and multidisciplinary topics, such as scientific ocean drilling, effects of a changing climate, marine carbon dioxide removal, ocean acidification, marine biodiversity, marine critical minerals, and urban seas. The committee also heard from those on the infrastructure side of ocean sciences to understand future anticipated needs and capabilities in support of ocean science research, such as the ARF, marine Long-Term Ecological Research sites, the Ocean Observatory Initiative, the Argo and BGC-Argo programs, and scientific ocean drilling. Throughout the information-convening process, discussions were held on programs that have benefited greatly from co-developed and co-produced research and that have moved toward a more transdisciplinary way of conducting science. In addition to extensive information-gathering meetings, the committee solicited input on research priorities from the broad ocean science community. The committee hosted two virtual town halls, receiving 117 responses.⁵ The committee also held in-person town halls at the 2023 American Geophysical Union meeting and the 2024 Ocean Sciences Meeting.

Interim Report

In accordance with the statement of task, the first published result of this study was an interim report—Progress and Priorities in Ocean Drilling: In Search of Earth’s Past and Future (NASEM, 2024b), which focuses on the future of scientific ocean drilling—while the full report was still being developed. This interim report, released to the public in March of 2024, covered research priorities that can be progressed only through scientific ocean drilling and the infrastructure needed to accomplish such research. The conclusions from the interim report are folded into the prioritization of research and infrastructure discussed in this report and considered in the context of all ocean sciences.

IDENTIFYING AND PRIORITZING OCEAN SCIENCE RESEARCH NEEDS

In addition to considering input gleaned from its extensive information-gathering sessions, town halls, and unsolicited emails or other communications, as described above, four different committee-wide exercises (held over the year) helped bring all the ideas for future ocean science research and infrastructure to the surface for evaluation. The committee’s deliberations included review of the following (in no particular order):

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⁴ See https://www.nationalacademies.org/our-work/2025-2035-decadal-survey-of-ocean-sciences-for-the-national-science-foundation.

⁵ See https://app.smartsheet.com/b/publish?EQBCT=1cd55d1f6f0a4abebd14d0724b76670e (accessed September 30, 2024).

• Recent relevant federally issued reports, such as Science and Technology for America’s Oceans: A Decadal Vision (SOST, 2018); Opportunities and Actions for Ocean Science and Technology, 2022–2028 (SOST, 2022); Ocean Climate Action Plan (OPC, 2023a); The United States Ocean Acidification Action Plan (NOAA, 2023); Ocean Justice Strategy (OPC, 2023b); National Strategy for a Sustainable Ocean Economy (OPC, 2024); and The National Ocean Biodiversity Strategy (SOST, 2024).
• Relevant National Academies reports, such as Sea Change: 2015–2025 Decadal Survey of Ocean Sciences (NRC, 2015); Earth System Predictability Research and Development: Proceedings of a Workshop—in Brief (NASEM, 2020); Cross-Cutting Themes for U.S. Contributions to the UN Ocean Decade (NASEM, 2022a); Next Generation Earth Systems Science at the National Science Foundation (NASEM, 2022b); A Research Strategy for Ocean-Based Carbon Dioxide Removal and Sequestration (NASEM, 2022c); Future Directions for Southern Ocean and Antarctic Nearshore and Coastal Research (NASEM, 2024d); and Progress and Priorities in Ocean Drilling: In Search of Earth’s Past and Future (NASEM, 2024b).
• Review of resources from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and associated updates (IPCC, 2023).

The committee compiled, analyzed, and discussed in detail research needs across the field of ocean sciences during closed committee meetings and evaluated research needs based on the criteria included in Box 1.3. Research topics meeting these criteria were elevated for consideration by the committee as a priority for the next decade.

REPORT STRUCTURE

The report is organized into five chapters. This chapter has provided the study context and background and establishes the critical role of ocean sciences to human well-being. Chapter 2 presents the committee’s assessment of ocean science research priorities most urgent for NSF and other organizations to support over the next decade. Chapter 3 discusses the necessity of innovating approaches in order to accomplish the research priorities. Chapter 4 discusses the infrastructure required and relevant considerations, including investment needs in a broader sense to facilitate U.S. leadership in basic ocean sciences in the next decade and beyond. Chapter 5 pulls the report content together in the form of recommendations for NSF by presenting different funding scenarios for helping the United States and the world better observe, understand, and forecast our future. Doing so will enable the research community to provide necessary information to communities and scientists to facilitate the adaptation, resiliency, and prosperity of humankind and the ecosystems foundational for life and well-being.