NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the panel responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
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The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and interim vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
This work is sponsored by the Defense Modeling and Simulation Office, U.S. Department of Defense, and funded under contract DACW61-96-D-0001. The views, opinions, and findings contained in this report are those of the author(s) and should not be construed as an official Department of Defense position, policy, or decision, unless so designated by other official documentation.
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RICHARD W. PEW (Chair),
BBN Systems and Technologies, Cambridge, MA
JEROME R. BUSEMEYER,
Department of Psychology, Purdue University
KATHLEEN CARLEY,
Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University
TERRY CONNOLLY,
Department of Management and Policy, College of Business and Public Administration, University of Arizona, Tucson
JOHN R. CORSON,
Integrated Visual Learning, Williamsburg, VA
KENNETH H. FUNK II,
Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis
DAVID E. KIERAS,
Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
RICHARD M. SHIFFRIN,
Psychology Department, Indiana University, Bloomington
GREG L. ZACHARIAS,
Charles River Analytics, Cambridge, MA
ANNE S. MAVOR, Study Director
JERRY KIDD, Senior Adviser
SUSAN McCUTCHEN, Senior Project Assistant
WILLIAM B. ROUSE (Chair),
Enterprise Support Systems, Norcross, GA
TERRY CONNOLLY,
Department of Management and Policy, College of Business and Public Administration, University of Arizona, Tucson
WILLIAM C. HOWELL,
American Psychological Association Science Directorate, Washington, DC
DAVID C. NAGEL,
AT&T Laboratories, Basking Ridge, NJ
BENJAMIN SCHNEIDER,
Department of Psychology, University of Maryland
LAWRENCE W. STARK,
School of Optometry, University of California, Berkeley
EARL L. WIENER,
Department of Management Science, University of Miami
GREG L. ZACHARIAS,
Charles River Analytics, Cambridge, MA
ANNE MAVOR, Director
JERRY KIDD, Senior Adviser
SUSAN McCUTCHEN, Senior Project Assistant
This report is the collective product of the entire panel, and we would like to thank the members for their active contribution in drafting sections of chapters, leading discussions, and/or reading and commenting on successive drafts.
Many individuals have made contributions to the panel's thinking and to various sections of this interim report by serving as presenters, advisers, and liaisons to useful sources of information. First, we would like to thank our sponsors, Judith Dahmann, James Heusmann, and Peter Polk of the Defense Modeling and Simulation Office, for their interest in the topic and their guidance to the panel. In addition, we would like to extend our appreciation to John Laird (University of Michigan), Paul Lehner (MITRE Corporation), H. Kent Pickett (TRADOC Analysis Center, Leavenworth, KS), Douglas Reece (University of Central Florida), and Barry Smith (NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA), who provided us with invaluable information concerning current modeling efforts in the military and at NASA.
Finally, staff at the National Research Council made important contributions to our work in many ways. We would like to express our appreciation to Susan McCutchen, the panel's senior project assistant, who was indispensable in organizing meetings, arranging travel, compiling agenda materials, managing the exchange of documentation across the panel and with our project sponsors, and manuscript preparation. We are also indebted to Christine McShane, who edited and significantly improved the report, and to Jerry Kidd, who generously shared his wealth of knowledge and experience.
RICHARD W. PEW, CHAIR
ANNE S. MAVOR, STUDY DIRECTOR
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