Review of WIC Food Packages: An Evaluation of White Potatoes in the Cash Value Voucher: Letter Report (2015)
Chapter: Appendix F: Description of Sensitivity Analysis Scenarios
Description of Sensitivity Analysis Scenarios
SCENARIOS
Four scenarios each of increased consumption of white potatoes (WPs) purchased with the cash value voucher (CVV) were tested for children and women, as follows:
For children:
- A moderate increase in WP consumption by children of 0.09 cup-equivalents per day (c-eq/d); other vegetable and fruit categories are reduced proportionally to cover the cost.
- A moderate increase in WP consumption by children of 0.09 c-eq/d; other vegetable (not fruit) categories are reduced proportionally to cover the cost.
- A large increase in WP consumption by children of 0.24 c-eq/d; other vegetable and fruit categories are reduced proportionally to cover the cost.
- A large increase in WP consumption by children of 0.24 c-eq/d; other vegetable (not fruit) categories are reduced proportionally to cover the cost.
For women:
- A moderate increase in WP consumption of 0.14 c-eq/d; other vegetable and fruit categories are reduced proportionally to cover the cost.
- A moderate increase in WP consumption of 0.14 c-eq/d; other vegetable (not fruit) categories are reduced proportionally to cover the cost.
- A large increase in WP consumption of 0.33 c-eq/d; other vegetable and fruit categories are reduced proportionally to cover the cost.
- A large increase in WP consumption of 0.33 c-eq/d; other vegetable (not fruit) categories are reduced proportionally to cover the cost.
Rationale for Scenario Development
The two potato intake values, respectively, for children and women represent (1) total at-home potentially WIC-eligible WP intake (0.09 or 0.14 c-eq/d), and (2) total WP intake (0.24 or 0.33 c-eq/d). These scenarios represent doubling of at-home potentially WIC-eligible or total WP intake for each population group, the second being a less plausible outcome. Recommended starchy vegetable intake by the 2010 Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA) is 0.5 c-eq/d for children ages 2 to 5 years (1,200 kcal) and 0.7 c-eq/d for women (2,000 kcal). In this study, food group recommendations for children are weighted in a 1:3 ratio using 1,000 and 1,300 (averaged from 1,200 and 1,400) calorie food patterns, following methodology applied by the Institute of Medicine (2011).
NOTES: These analyses assume no changes in food groups other than vegetables and fruits (e.g., not grains, dairy, or protein groups). The sensitivity analysis is constrained to the CVV, which allows only for purchase of fruits and vegetables. Therefore, tradeoffs in purchases made if white potatoes are purchased were limited to other items that can be purchased with the voucher. Changes in fruit and vegetable intake were tested as sourced from 100 percent fresh purchases, or a combination of fresh, frozen, and canned to represent a variety of price ranges. To estimate prices for each vegetable or fruit subgroups, price data from the Economic Research Service were applied (2011). For subgroups created specifically for this sensitivity analysis (i.e., WP, other starchy vegetable and fruit [no juice]), the percent contribution of the specific vegetable or fruit to the general vegetable or fruit subgroup was rescaled to sum to 100 percent. The costs was then weighted accordingly to determine the new subgroup cost per c-eq (see Appendix L, Table L-3).
REFEFRENCES
IOM (Institute of Medicine). 2011. Child and adult care food program: Aligning dietary guidance for all. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
USDA/ERS (U.S. Department of Agriculture/Economic Research Service). 2011. Fruit and vegetable prices. Washington, DC: USDA/ERS. http://ers.usda.gov/data-products/fruitand-vegetable-prices.aspx (accessed December 15, 2014).
