Consensus
U.S. national security depends on defense software that is secure, reliable, and agile. At the request of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine conducted a study to explore how to enhance the assurance and agility of large-scale, integrated software-based systems. This report recommends ways the Department of Defense can engineer and manage its software systems to reduce cyber risk and enable more rapid system evolution to meet changing mission needs.
134 pages
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8.5 x 11
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paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-99273-7
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-99274-5
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/29129
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Defense Software for a Contested Future: Agility, Assurance, and Incentives. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Advances in artificial intelligence, and specifically in machine learning, are enabling new capabilities across nearly every sector of the economy. Many of these applications - such as automated vehicles, the power grid, or surgical robots - are safety critical: where malfunctions can result in harm to people, the environment, or property. While machine learning is already being deployed to enhance the capabilities of some physical systems, extending the rigorous practices of safety engineering to include machine learning components brings significant challenges.
Machine Learning for Safety-Critical Applications explores ways to safely integrate machine learning into physical systems and presents research priorities for improving safety, testing, and evaluation. This report finds that designing machine learning algorithms in a way that aligns with safety engineering standards will require changes in research, training, and engineering practice - as well as a shift away from focusing on algorithmic performance in isolation.
82 pages
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8.5 x 11
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paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-72666-2
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-59994-6
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/27970
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Machine Learning for Safety-Critical Applications: Opportunities, Challenges, and a Research Agenda. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Consensus
Cybercrime poses serious threats and financial costs to individuals and businesses in the United States and worldwide. Reports of data breaches and ransomware attacks on governments and businesses have become common, as have incidents against individuals (e.g., identity theft, online stalking, and harassment). Concern over cybercrime has increased as the internet has become a ubiquitous part of modern life. However, comprehensive, consistent, and reliable data and metrics on cybercrime still do not exist - a consequence of a shortage of vital information resulting from the decentralized nature of relevant data collection at the national level.
Cybercrime Classification and Measurement addresses the absence credible cybercrime data and metrics. This report provides a taxonomy for the Federal Bureau of Investigation for the purpose of measuring different types of cybercrime, including both cyber-enabled and cyber-dependent crimes faced by individuals and businesses, and considers the needs for its periodic revision. This report was mandated by the 2022 Better Cybercrime Metrics Act (BCMA).
160 pages
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6 x 9
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paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-73461-4
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-73462-2
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/29048
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Cybercrime Classification and Measurement. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Workshop
On June 11, 20, 26 and July 2, 2024, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine held a series of workshop sessions to consider human and organizational factors of artificial intelligence (AI) risk management. The first three sessions - which examined community participation, testing and evaluation, and organizational culture - were held virtually, and the final session - in which members of the planning committee and a set of invited respondents reflected on the earlier sessions - was held in person. This proceedings recounts the presentations and discussions that occurred throughout these workshop sessions.
58 pages
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paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-73453-3
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-73454-1
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/29046
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Human and Organizational Factors in AI Risk Management: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Consensus
Cyber technologies underpin every facet of the economy and are critical for national security. Cyber and cyber-enabled systems are rapidly growing in both complexity and scale, and - despite significant progress - are outpacing the capacity to keep them safe, secure, and resilient to disruptions. Cyber hard problems - unsolved technical and research problems for which progress toward solution would have a significant impact on the practical security of cyber systems - are frequently caused or sustained by human or societal factors and misaligned incentives. These in turn are exacerbated by the continuing tremendous growth in the production and use of cyber technologies and their resulting near ubiquity in societally important systems and institutions.
This report builds off of the Cyber Hard Problem List originally developed for the Department of Homeland Security in 1996. Cyber Hard Problems reviews that original list, then provides an update by identifying and describing current key hard problems for cyber resiliency. This report explores each of the identified problems, and then proposes ways to use the list to enhance community-wide coordination of research and development activities.
136 pages
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paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-73489-4
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-73490-8
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/29056
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Cyber Hard Problems: Focused Steps Toward a Resilient Digital Future. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Artificial intelligence (AI) applications in the life sciences have the potential to enable advances in biological discovery and design at a faster pace and efficiency than is possible with classical experimental approaches alone. At the same time, AI-enabled biological tools developed for beneficial applications could potentially be misused for harmful purposes. Although the creation of biological weapons is not a new concept or risk, the potential for AI-enabled biological tools to affect this risk has raised concerns during the past decade.
This report, as requested by the Department of Defense, assesses how AI-enabled biological tools could uniquely impact biosecurity risk, and how advancements in such tools could also be used to mitigate these risks. The Age of AI in the Life Sciences reviews the capabilities of AI-enabled biological tools and can be used in conjunction with the 2018 National Academies report, Biodefense in the Age of Synthetic Biology, which sets out a framework for identifying the different risk factors associated with synthetic biology capabilities.
172 pages
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paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-73335-9
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-73336-7
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/28868
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. The Age of AI in the Life Sciences: Benefits and Biosecurity Considerations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Consensus
Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) promise to improve productivity significantly, but there are many questions about how AI could affect jobs and workers.
Recent technical innovations have driven the rapid development of generative AI systems, which produce text, images, or other content based on user requests - advances which have the potential to complement or replace human labor in specific tasks, and to reshape demand for certain types of expertise in the labor market.
Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work evaluates recent advances in AI technology and their implications for economic productivity, the workforce, and education in the United States. The report notes that AI is a tool with the potential to enhance human labor and create new forms of valuable work - but this is not an inevitable outcome. Tracking progress in AI and its impacts on the workforce will be critical to helping inform and equip workers and policymakers to flexibly respond to AI developments.
200 pages
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paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-71714-0
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-71715-9
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/27644
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Workshop
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine's Committee on Law and Justice and Computer Science and Telecommunications board hosted a two-day workshop on June 24-25, 2024, to explore law enforcement use of person-based and place-based predictive policing strategies. These strategies utilize data to predict individuals or locations likely to be associated with crime, with the aim of preventing criminal activities.
The workshop explored effectiveness, legal, ethical, and social considerations, and concluded with discussions on future approaches to predictive policing. This new proceedings summarizes the workshop's key themes, including pressing challenges and opportunities, and areas for further consideration and guidance.
90 pages
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paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-72918-1
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-72919-X
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/28036
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Law Enforcement Use of Predictive Policing Approaches: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Workshop
To better understand key considerations around law enforcement use of advanced forensic DNA technologies, the Committee on Law and Justice and the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine held a workshop titled "Law Enforcement Use of Probabilistic Genotyping, Forensic DNA Phenotyping, and Forensic Investigative Genetic Genealogy Technologies." The workshop was organized in response to Executive Order 14074, issued in May 2022, and was held on March 13 and 14, 2024. The order focused on advancing effective, accountable policing, as well as criminal justice practices around algorithmic approaches to policing; it directed the National Academies to hold a workshop to explore the different approaches. The workshop focused on three specific advanced forensic DNA practices: probabilistic genotyping, forensic DNA phenotyping, and forensic investigative genetic genealogy. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussion of the workshop.
134 pages
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ISBN Paperback: 0-309-72364-7
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-72365-5
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/27887
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Law Enforcement Use of Probabilistic Genotyping, Forensic DNA Phenotyping, and Forensic Investigative Genetic Genealogy Technologies: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Workshop_in_brief
On April 17, 2024, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine's Forum on Cyber Resilience held a workshop to explore key considerations for a secure, resilient, and sustainable microelectronics ecosystem in the United States. The workshop aimed to serve as a forum for conversation between government and private stakeholders on issues such as incentives for security and information sharing between public and private sectors. Panel discussion topics included requirements for high-assurance microelectronics (e.g., used in national security), the importance of public-private partnerships, supply chain security, and secure fabrication. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions of the workshop.
5 pages
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ISBN Ebook: 0-309-73281-6
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/28840
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Enabling a Resilient U.S. Microelectronics Ecosystem: Proceedings of a Workshop—in Brief. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Workshop
The convergence of imaging, pathology, and laboratory testing data, augmented with information technology, is referred to as integrated diagnostics. To examine the current state of the science and strategies to facilitate precision cancer care through integrated diagnostics, the National Academies National Cancer Policy Forum hosted a public workshop in collaboration with the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board and the Board on Human-Systems Integration.
116 pages
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paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-71821-X
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-71822-8
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/27744
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Incorporating Integrated Diagnostics into Precision Oncology Care: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Workshop_in_brief
On August 31 and September 1, 2023, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine held a workshop in conjunction with a meeting of its Forum on Cyber Resilience aimed at better understanding recent developments with large language models (LLMs) and their implications for cybersecurity and resilience. Presentations addressed how LLMs are constructed and function, how industry is considering using LLMs generally and for cybersecurity, safeguards that aim to limit LLM outputs deemed harmful and techniques for circumventing them, and, more generally, the trustworthiness of LLMs and their integration into cybersecurity offense and defense.
9 pages
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8.5 x 11
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ISBN Ebook: 0-309-71935-6
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/27776
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Large Language Models and Cybersecurity: Proceedings of a Workshop—in Brief. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Workshop_in_brief
13 pages
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8.5 x 11
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DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/27812
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Law Enforcement Use of Probabilistic Genotyping, Forensic DNA Phenotyping, and Forensic Investigative Genetic Genealogy Technologies: Proceedings of a Workshop—in Brief. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Workshop
Over the past century, artificial intelligence (AI) has evolved from computational theory to everyday conversational technologies, capturing the attention and interest of the public and the media. It has also caught the attention of the scientific community, where it has provided a new tool to support inquiry and exploration. While AI in the context of scientific investigation has existed for decades, advances in computational technology and sensing in the physical world have created opportunities to integrate AI into science in unexpected ways, with capabilities that are rapidly accelerating. As a result, AI has been leveraged by an expanding collection of disciplines in the physical and biological sciences, as well as engineering domains. While the opportunities for AI in scientific discovery seem endless, there are numerous questions about what makes for trustworthy and reliable discovery, whether such investigation should be performed without human oversight or intervention, and how best to prioritize the research agenda and allocation of resources without magnifying disparities for individuals and nations alike.
In recognition of the timeliness and sizable implications of AI in our world, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine hosted AI for Scientific Discovery - A Workshop on October 12-23, 2023. Leaders from across the globe in the field of AI, preeminent researchers in various science and engineering disciplines, and experts in ethics, law, and social sciences met to appraise the state of the field and provide guidance on the opportunities, as well as the challenges, that lay ahead. Presentations and discussion explored the future of AI in terms of its role as an autonomous researcher carrying out discovery and considered ethical aspects of AI used for independent scientific discovery.
68 pages
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6 x 9
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paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-71497-4
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-71498-2
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/27457
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. AI for Scientific Discovery: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Consensus
Across multiple domains of science, engineering, and medicine, excitement is growing about the potential of digital twins to transform scientific research, industrial practices, and many aspects of daily life. A digital twin couples computational models with a physical counterpart to create a system that is dynamically updated through bidirectional data flows as conditions change. Going beyond traditional simulation and modeling, digital twins could enable improved medical decision-making at the individual patient level, predictions of future weather and climate conditions over longer timescales, and safer, more efficient engineering processes. However, many challenges remain before these applications can be realized.
This report identifies the foundational research and resources needed to support the development of digital twin technologies. The report presents critical future research priorities and an interdisciplinary research agenda for the field, including how federal agencies and researchers across domains can best collaborate.
202 pages
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paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-70042-6
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-70043-4
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/26894
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Foundational Research Gaps and Future Directions for Digital Twins. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Facial recognition technology is increasingly used for identity verification and identification, from aiding law enforcement investigations to identifying potential security threats at large venues. However, advances in this technology have outpaced laws and regulations, raising significant concerns related to equity, privacy, and civil liberties.
This report explores the current capabilities, future possibilities, and necessary governance for facial recognition technology. Facial Recognition Technology discusses legal, societal, and ethical implications of the technology, and recommends ways that federal agencies and others developing and deploying the technology can mitigate potential harms and enact more comprehensive safeguards.
160 pages
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8.5 x 11
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paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-71320-X
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-71321-8
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/27397
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Facial Recognition Technology: Current Capabilities, Future Prospects, and Governance. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Workshop
Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to aid new mathematical discoveries. Particularly as the amount of data available grows beyond what any person can study, AI can be useful in its power to identify patterns in data and refine relationships between properties. Sponsored by the National Science Foundation, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Board on Mathematical Sciences and Analytics convened a 3-day public virtual workshop on June 12-14, 2023, to bring together stakeholders to discuss the state of the art and current challenges and opportunities to advance research in using AI for mathematical reasoning. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussion of the workshop.
88 pages
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paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-71025-1
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-71026-X
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/27241
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Artificial Intelligence to Assist Mathematical Reasoning: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Workshop_in_brief
The digital twin is an emerging technology that builds on the convergence of computer science, mathematics, engineering, and the life sciences. Digital twins have the potential to revolutionize atmospheric and climate sciences in particular, as they could be used, for example, to create global-scale interactive models of Earth to predict future weather and climate conditions over longer timescales.
On February 1-2, 2023, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine hosted a public, virtual workshop to discuss characterizations of digital twins within the context of atmospheric, climate, and sustainability sciences and to identify methods for their development and use. Workshop panelists presented varied definitions and taxonomies of digital twins and highlighted key challenges as well as opportunities to translate promising practices to other fields. The second in a three-part series, this evidence-gathering workshop will inform a National Academies consensus study on research gaps and future directions to advance the mathematical, statistical, and computational foundations of digital twins in applications across science, medicine, engineering, and society.
13 pages
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ISBN Ebook: 0-309-70128-7
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/26921
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Opportunities and Challenges for Digital Twins in Atmospheric and Climate Sciences: Proceedings of a Workshop—in Brief. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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