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Billions of gallons of water per day are channeled from northern California to drier Central and Southern California through the network of dams, canals, and other features that comprise the federal Central Valley Project (CVP), operated by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR), and the State Water Project (SWP), operated by the California Department of Water Resources. At least two thirds of California's population and more than 4 million acres of California farmland rely in whole or in part on water delivered by these projects. In addition to delivering water to meet diverse demands, the Projects must also protect six endangered fish species, including Delta smelt, longfin smelt, Sacramento River winter-run Chinook salmon, Central Valley spring-run Chinook salmon, California Central Valley steelhead, and the southern distinct population segment of North American green sturgeon.
At the request of the USBR, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine established a committee to conduct a biennial review of the monitoring, modeling, and other relevant scientific activities of the CVP and the SWP. This first report in the series examines three actions designed to help protect the fish - the Shasta Coldwater Pool Management Action, the Old and Middle River Flow Management Action, and the Summer-Fall Habitat Action for Delta Smelt. The report evaluates the scientific basis for each of the actions, along with monitoring and modeling needs, and makes specific recommendations for strengthening each of them to help them reach their stated goals.
352 pages
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ISBN Paperback: 0-309-99279-6
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-60115-0
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/29130
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Review of the Long-Term Operations of the Central Valley Project and the State Water Project. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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The scientific community has been studying the question of how human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases are affecting the climate for well over a century. Much is known today, drawing on decades of direct observations of the Earth system and detailed research. This report summarizes the latest evidence on whether greenhouse gas emissions threaten public health and welfare in the United States.
The impetus for this report was a notice of proposed rulemaking issued in August 2025 by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) indicating its intention to rescind the 2009 Finding of Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases Under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act. Recognizing that significantly more evidence is available today, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine launched this study to review newly available scientific evidence on the topics included in a Technical Support Document that EPA prepared to inform its decision-making on the finding.
The report’s authoring committee found that EPA’s 2009 finding that human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases adversely affect human health and welfare was accurate, has stood the test of time, and is now reinforced by even stronger evidence. Today, many of EPA’s conclusions are further supported by longer observational records and multiple new lines of evidence. Moreover, research has uncovered additional risks that were not apparent in 2009.
126 pages
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ISBN Paperback: 0-309-99603-1
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-60029-4
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/29239
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Effects of Human-Caused Greenhouse Gas Emissions on U.S. Climate, Health, and Welfare. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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In response to the buildup of U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals during the Cold War, a series of major scientific studies conducted in the 1980s issued warnings about the potential for a "nuclear winter" scenario - the possibility that a large-scale nuclear exchange could inject massive amounts of soot and particulates into the upper atmosphere that would block incoming solar radiation and cause major ecosystem and societal disruptions. In the decades since that concept emerged, profound military, political, and technological changes have reshaped the nuclear landscape, while scientific advances have deepened the understanding of, and ability to model, Earth system processes. It is in this context that the U.S. Congress asked for this report to re-examine the potential environmental, social, and economic effects that could unfold over the weeks to decades after a nuclear war.
The effects of any given nuclear exchange would depend on key processes and interactions along a causal pathway with six stages: weapon employment scenarios and effects; fire dynamics and emissions; plume rise, fate, and transport; physical Earth system impacts; ecosystem impacts; and socioeconomic impacts. Impacts of radioactive fallout were not included in the assessment. Potential Environmental Effects of Nuclear War identifies major uncertainties and data gaps at each stage of the causal pathway that currently limit researchers' ability to understand and model the effects of a nuclear war. This report recommends that relevant U.S. agencies coordinate the development of and support for a suite of model intercomparison projects to organize and assess models to reduce uncertainties in projections of the climatic and environment effects of nuclear war.
234 pages
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ISBN Paperback: 0-309-71617-9
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-99416-0
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/27515
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Potential Environmental Effects of Nuclear War. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Understanding and anticipating change in the ocean, and how it will affect marine ecosystems and humans, has never been more urgent. Over recent years, basic and applied research in ocean science has developed more accurate forecasts of ocean and seafloor processes that have helped communities adapt to changing conditions. However, at the start of this new decade (2025-2035), U.S. investment in ocean science, engineering, and technology is not keeping pace with growing societal needs, even as U.S. competitors are increasing investments in ocean science and advancing their capacities.
At the request of the National Science Foundation (NSF), this report provides advice on how to focus investments in ocean research, infrastructure, and workforce to meet national and global challenges in the coming decade and beyond, and in doing so, enhance national security, scientific leadership, and economic competitiveness through a thriving blue economy. The report also sets out an overarching challenge for NSF and the broader research community: to establish a new paradigm for forecasting the state of the ocean at scales relevant to human well-being in the next decade. Accomplishing this challenge is reliant on continued funding for basic research across ocean studies and reinvestment in ocean science infrastructure. It will require an integrated approach to research that takes full advantage of emerging technologies, expands the workforce, and increases available resources through strategic partnerships among federal and state agencies, industry, academia, and other interest holders.
164 pages
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ISBN Paperback: 0-309-72222-5
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-72223-3
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/27846
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Forecasting the Ocean: The 2025–2035 Decade of Ocean Science. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Decarbonization brings both risks and opportunities to the macroeconomy. Achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century may involve sweeping changes in technologies, policies, and systems, and the ways in which these changes are implemented may have profound impacts on communities, industries, economies, and nations. To elucidate multiple aspects of the ways in which decarbonization and the macroeconomy interact, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, under the auspices of the Roundtable on Macroeconomics and Climate-related Risks and Opportunities, convened a workshop on September 12-13, 2024. In panel discussions, an interactive breakout session, and a poster session, participants explored emerging insights on the macroeconomic and socioeconomic implications of decarbonization strategies and lessons learned from engagement with communities, industries, and governments around decarbonization pathways. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussion of the workshop.
92 pages
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ISBN Paperback: 0-309-73466-5
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-73467-3
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/29050
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Macroeconomic Implications for Decarbonization Policies and Actions: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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When oil and gas production began in the 19th century in North America, standards and regulations for the drilling and plugging of wells had not yet been developed. Over time, many of these and other wells were abandoned - unplugged, or not plugged to modern standards, and have sat idle for an extended, possibly unknown, period of time. These wells might not have been originally operated and maintained in accordance with existing statutes and regulations and, due to degradation over time and potential improper prior operations, they can emit methane, contaminate groundwater, and impact ecosystems, creating risks for both the environment and the public.
To explore and share the variety of existing procedures and standards for plugging orphaned and abandoned wells, including current best practices for well-plugging technologies, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop on July 18-19, 2024. Sponsored by the Department of the Interior's Orphaned Wells Program Office, the workshop included members of the federal government, state leaders, tribal representatives, industry experts, and other affected parties. This proceedings summarizes the presentation and discussion of the workshop.
100 pages
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ISBN Paperback: 0-309-72914-9
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-72915-7
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/28035
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Practices and Standards for Plugging Orphaned and Abandoned Hydrocarbon Wells: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Atypical weather events, such as extreme tropical cyclones, pose substantial threats to life, property and livelihoods in the U.S. and worldwide. Despite major advances in forecasting capabilities, communicating about extreme weather events with decision-makers and the public carries considerable challenges but also provides opportunities for innovation. Decisions surrounding extreme weather events often involve making tradeoffs between different degrees and varieties of risks. For example, deciding whether or when to issue an evacuation order ahead of a tropical cyclone entails tradeoffs between the risks to lives posed by the event and the risks to livelihoods posed by the financial costs of evacuations or relocations.
In early 2024, the National Academies held a workshop on risk communication around extreme tropical cyclones and other atypical climate events. Participants aimed to identify opportunities and challenges for risk communication as well as lessons about community engagement and communication concerning other climate events. Over the course of the workshop, participants addressed various facets of risk communication, including the importance and difficulty of clearly communicating uncertainty to the general public; the importance of understanding the needs of various audiences in the context of effective communication; preparedness as a critical component of an effective response; and the often-profound ways that strong partnerships and relationships across sectors and offices can impact and improve risk communication.
104 pages
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ISBN Paperback: 0-309-72537-2
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-72538-0
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/27933
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Advancing Risk Communication with Decision-Makers for Extreme Tropical Cyclones and Other Atypical Climate Events: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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2023 shattered global climate records as the warmest year in the modern record, bringing with it devastating impacts on human and natural systems. Methane emissions, about 60% of which come from human activities, are a major contributor to global warming, second only to carbon dioxide (CO2). Methane is relatively short-lived in the atmosphere but is 80 times more potent than CO2 at trapping heat over a 20-year period. Together with reducing CO2 emissions, rapid and sustained reductions in methane emissions are critical to limit both near- and long-term warming in future decades. But given the many barriers to achieving needed emissions reductions at scale, researchers are exploring the potential of technologies to remove methane from the atmosphere.
A Research Agenda Toward Atmospheric Methane Removal is the first report of a two-phase study to assess the need and potential for atmospheric methane removal. This report identifies priority research that should be addressed within 3-5 years so that a second-phase assessment could more robustly assess the technical, economic, and social viability of technologies to remove atmospheric methane at climate-relevant scales. The research agenda presented in this report includes foundational research that would help us better understand atmospheric methane removal while also filling knowledge gaps in related fields, and systems research that seek to address what developing and/or deploying atmospheric methane removal at scale would entail. A Research Agenda Toward Atmospheric Methane Removal also assesses five atmospheric methane removal technologies that would accelerate the conversion of methane to a less radiatively potent form or physically remove methane from the atmosphere and store it elsewhere.
284 pages
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ISBN Paperback: 0-309-70665-3
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-70666-1
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/27157
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. A Research Agenda Toward Atmospheric Methane Removal. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is a report produced periodically by the United States Global Change Research Program that takes a comprehensive look at global climate change. Before release, it undergoes intensive review for technical accuracy. What has not been studied in-depth are the users and uses of the NCA, and how the report has informed decision-making. To support evaluation of stakeholder use of the NCA, the National Academies prepared a strategy for creating and implementing an evaluation design that can inform ongoing and future NCAs and related products. This can support a process of continuous improvement.
The NCA serves a large number of audiences, and they vary in their needs and in access to climate information. An evaluation would benefit from understanding how the audiences for the NCA are interconnected through networks and how they use, modify, and transmit information from the report. The evaluation would also benefit by first creating a logic model to describe how the NCA is hypothesized to achieve its intended outcomes. The logic model can then be used to design a set of overarching evaluation questions, and to prioritize which audiences to target in the evaluation. Different research methods will be appropriate depending on the audience and the level of information available about the audience. Such an evaluation, taken in stages, can reveal the impact of federal climate science on decisions across the nation and help the USGCRP address any gaps and frailties in the NCA and related products and how they are communicated in the future.
138 pages
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ISBN Paperback: 0-309-72500-3
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-72501-1
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/27923
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Developing a Strategy to Evaluate the National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Earth systems science aims to discover and integrate knowledge on the structure, nature, and scales of interactions among natural (e.g., physical, chemical, and biological) and social (e.g., cultural, socioeconomic, and geopolitical) processes. Climate-related migration can be temporary or permanent, can involve internal displacement within countries or crossing international borders, and can involve a broad array of other direct and indirect drivers. To explore how an Earth systems science approach may be used to address climate change impacts and the consequent influence on human migration, the National Academies hosted a workshop, Climate Change and Human Migration: An Earth Systems Science Perspective, on March 18-19, 2024. Workshop presentations focused on the data, methods, and research strategies relevant to understanding climate-related migration. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussion of the workshop.
54 pages
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ISBN Paperback: 0-309-72528-3
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-72529-1
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/27930
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Climate Change and Human Migration: An Earth Systems Science Perspective: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Earth is a complex system, with myriad interactions and feedbacks among the atmosphere, hydrosphere, geosphere, cryosphere, and biosphere, as well as the people, institutions, and technologies that respond to and influence these dynamics. A systems-based approach to scientific research can yield understanding across all aspects of Earth's interconnected processes. Earth systems studies rest on careful analyses of physical, chemical, biological, and behavioral processes and their interactions and feedbacks; these studies are supported by observational platforms, laboratory and modeling facilities, a skilled scientific workforce, and the cyberinfrastructure that connects them to enable new breakthroughs.
This workshop was organized to explore the approaches to Earth systems science through the lens of a critical topic - tipping points - and to cultivate cross-disciplinary collaborations and prime new research communities to discuss examples of research needs in a broader context of Earth systems science. This publication summarizes the presentation and discussion of the workshop.
74 pages
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ISBN Paperback: 0-309-70134-1
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-70135-X
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/26925
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Tipping Points, Cascading Impacts, and Interacting Risks in the Earth System: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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For more than 75 years, high-hazard structures in the U.S., including dams and nuclear power plants, have been engineered to withstand floods resulting from the most unlikely but possible precipitation, termed Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). Failure of any one of the more than 16,000 high-hazard dams and 50 nuclear power plants in the United States could result in the loss of life and impose significant economic losses and widespread environmental damage, especially under the pressures of climate change. While PMP estimates have provided useful guidance for designing critical infrastructure, weaknesses in the scientific foundations of PMP, combined with advances in understanding, observing, and modeling extreme storms, call for fundamental changes to the definition of PMP and the methods used to estimate it.
Modernizing Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimation recommends a new definition of PMP and presents a vision for a methodology relevant for design, operation, and regulation of critical infrastructure. The new definition targets precipitation depths with an extremely low exceedance probability instead of assuming rainfall is bounded, and considers specified climate periods so that PMP estimates can change as the climate changes. Near-term enhancements to PMP include improved data collection, model-based storm reconstructions, and strengthened scientific grounding for PMP methods. Long-term model-based PMP estimation will employ kilometer-scale climate models capable of resolving PMP storms and producing PMP-magnitude precipitation. A Model Evaluation Project will provide scientific grounding for model-based PMP estimation and determine when transition to a model-based PMP estimation should occur. Scientific and modeling advances along this front will contribute to addressing the societal challenges linked to the changes in extreme storms and precipitation in a warming climate, which are critical steps to ensuring the safety of our infrastructure and society.
212 pages
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ISBN Paperback: 0-309-71511-3
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-72287-X
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/27460
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Modernizing Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimation. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Understanding the intricate relationship between climate dynamics and the macroeconomy is crucial for informed policy and long-term planning. However, there is a gap between climate modeling and the understanding of its full macroeconomic effects, partly due to challenges such as nonlinear climate dynamics, feedback loops, and model complexity. To address this, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, under the auspices of the Roundtable on Macroeconomics and Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities, convened a workshop on November 1-2, 2023, to consider the state of knowledge on cascading, compounding, and nonlinear physical climate risks and their implications for the macroeconomy. Through panels of invited speakers and interactive breakout discussions, the workshop focused on physical climate risks and explored how different disciplines assess and model impacts. Workshop discussions explored current and historical examples of shocks to the macroeconomy and how those have been modeled, and experts shared some of the lessons they have learned that may be relevant to policy makers today.
92 pages
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ISBN Paperback: 0-309-72127-X
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-72128-8
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/27811
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Research on the Dynamics of Climate and the Macroeconomy: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Research supported by scientific ocean drilling has fundamentally transformed our understanding of the planet with key contributions to the discovery and theory of plate tectonics; the formation and destruction of ocean crust; the reconstruction of extreme greenhouse and icehouse climates; the identification of major extinctions; and the discovery of a diverse community of microbes living deep ocean seafloor. With the retirement in 2024 of the JOIDES Resolution-- the U.S. dedicated drilling vessel for deep sea research and the workhorse for the international scientific ocean drilling community-- the scientific ocean drilling landscape will change. At this critical juncture, the National Science Foundation (NSF) is looking to identify the most urgent research questions that can only be answered with scientific ocean drilling and what infrastructure is needed to progress those priorities.
This interim report that is the first part of a broader study of decadal survey of ocean science provides a broad perspective of future research and associated infrastructure needs. The report concludes that the rapid pace of climate change, related extreme events, sea level rise, changes in ocean currents, chemistry threatening ocean ecosystems, and devastating natural hazards are among the greatest challenges facing society. By coring the past to inform the future, U.S. based scientific ocean drilling research continues to have unique and essential roles in addressing these vital and urgent challenges.
142 pages
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ISBN Paperback: 0-309-71338-2
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-72561-5
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/27414
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Progress and Priorities in Ocean Drilling: In Search of Earth's Past and Future. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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The extraction of mineral resources provides the raw materials necessary to produce the products and technologies on which the global economy depends, including green technologies essential for decarbonization. Mineral extraction requires expertise in a range of areas - including mineral resources identification, environmental evaluation, processing, and reclamation - but many of the U.S. academic programs that have historically educated the U.S. minerals workforce face significant challenges attracting students and maintaining financial viability. For some programs, enrollment dropped 60 percent from 2015 to 2023, despite a growing demand for a minerals workforce.
The National Academies convened a workshop on January 23-24, 2024 to consider how the United States can build the capacity of federal and state agencies, academia, and the private sector to meet U.S. mineral workforce needs. Participants addressed the urgent need to attract more students, discussed a need to integrate new disciplines into curricula as the industry evolves, and identified multipronged approaches to help enhance overall retention and recruitment. This proceedings synthesizes the key suggestions presented by participants that universities, companies, and government agencies could take to enhance the recruitment, training, and retention of workers in the mineral resources industry.
56 pages
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ISBN Paperback: 0-309-71779-5
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-71780-9
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/27733
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Building Capacity for the U.S. Mineral Resources Workforce: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Climate change is fundamentally changing ecosystems and their fire conditions, and the 2023 fire season highlighted the urgency of developing and implementing solutions to address wildland fires. Wildland fires transfer carbon between the land and the atmosphere through emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), along with other gasses and particles. Though fires can be a natural part of healthy, evolving ecosystems, large, uncontrolled wildland fires can have devastating consequences to human health, communities, and biodiversity. Human-driven changes in wildland fire regimes have the potential to increase GHG emissions at a scale that could inhibit global efforts to achieve net-zero GHG emissions in the coming decades.
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop on September 13-15, 2023, to identify opportunities to improve measurements and model projections of GHG emissions from wildland fires and discuss management practices that could be incorporated into current and future action plans. Participants emphasized the importance of learning from historic and current Indigenous fire management practices and centering Indigenous voices and leadership across all stages of fire management. Different global ecosystems - particularly temperate, boreal, and tropical biomes - have been impacted by climate and land use changes where historical fire regimes and the carbon balance have been disrupted. However, discussions highlighted the diverse set of available regionally differentiated and ecosystem-appropriate mitigation strategies. With improved understanding of fires and their GHG emissions, better information for mitigation and management, and incorporation of wildfire GHG emissions into national accounting mechanisms, practitioners, communities, and decision makers will be better equipped to prepare, adapt, and respond to future wildland fires.
94 pages
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ISBN Paperback: 0-309-71553-9
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-72075-3
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/27473
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Wildland Fires: Toward Improved Monitoring, Modeling, and Management: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Addressing climate change is essential and possible, and it offers a host of benefits - from better public health to new economic opportunities. The United States has a historic opportunity to lead the way in decarbonization by transforming its current energy system to one with net-zero emissions of carbon dioxide. Recent legislation has set the nation on the path to reach its goal of net zero by 2050 in order to avoid the worst consequences of climate change. However, even if implemented as designed, current policy will get the United States only part of the way to its net-zero goal.
Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States provides a comprehensive set of actionable recommendations to help policymakers achieve a just and equitable energy transition over the next decade and beyond, including policy, technology, and societal dimensions. This report addresses federal and subnational policy needs to overcome implementation barriers and gaps with a focus on energy justice, workforce development, public health, and public engagement. The report also presents a suite of recommendations for the electricity, transportation, built environment, industrial, fossil fuels, land use, and finance sectors.
822 pages
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ISBN Paperback: 0-309-68284-3
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-68285-1
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/25931
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States: Technology, Policy, and Societal Dimensions. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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Macroeconomic models, essential for decision making and federal budget planning, may not appropriately consider the wide breadth of climate-related impacts that potentially have large macroeconomic significance. Challenges integrating climate factors into macroeconomic analyses can stem from the complexity of macroeconomics, climate science, policy instruments, and their interactions. Although economists have made progress in developing tools to understand climate-related impacts on the macroeconomy, much of the climate and macroeconomic research has historically been conducted in disciplinary silos that can limit a holistic understanding of climate-related impacts on the macroeconomy.
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, under the auspices of the Roundtable on Macroeconomics and Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities, convened a workshop on June 14-15, 2023, to consider current macroeconomic models and suggest opportunities that may improve the incorporation of climate-related factors into macroeconomic modeling. Through panels of invited speakers and an interactive breakout discussion, the workshop explored an array of macroeconomic models and potential pathways to integrate some of the physical and transition effects of climate change. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussion of the workshop.
92 pages
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ISBN Paperback: 0-309-71467-2
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-72116-4
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17226/27447
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Incorporating Climate Change and Climate Policy into Macroeconomic Modeling: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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