Climate Change and
Human Migration

An Earth Systems Science Perspective

______

Anne Frances Johnson,
Nancy D. Lamontagne,
Deborah Glickson, and
Lyly Luhachack, Rapporteurs

Division on Earth and Life Studies

Proceedings of a Workshop

NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001

This activity was supported by Grant No. 2022844 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-72528-6
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-72528-3
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/27930

This publication is available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu.

Copyright 2024 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and the National Academies Press and the graphical logos for each are all trademarks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America.

Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Climate Change and Human Migration: An Earth Systems Science Perspective: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/27930.

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president.

The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president.

The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine.

Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task.

Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies.

Rapid Expert Consultations published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are authored by subject-matter experts on narrowly focused topics that can be supported by a body of evidence. The discussions contained in rapid expert consultations are considered those of the authors and do not contain policy recommendations. Rapid expert consultations are reviewed by the institution before release.

For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.

ORGANIZING COMMITTEE FOR WORKSHOP ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN MIGRATION: AN EARTH SYSTEMS SCIENCE PERSPECTIVE

AMIR AGHAKOUCHAK (Chair), University of California, Irvine

SOMAYEH DODGE, University of California, Santa Barbara

ELIZABETH (BETH) FUSSELL, Brown University

LORI HUNTER, University of Colorado Boulder

SHANNA N. MCCLAIN, National Aeronautics and Space Administration

DIEGO PONS, University of Denver

DANIELLE N. POOLE, Yale School of Public Health

JACKIE QATALIÑA SCHAEFFER, Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium

KILAPARTI (RAMA) RAMAKRISHNA, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Study Staff

LYLY LUHACHACK, Program Officer

MARGO CORUM, Visiting Scientist (until December 2023)

DANIELLE WOODRING, Associate Program Officer (until January 2024)

MAYA FREY, Senior Program Assistant

DEBORAH GLICKSON, Board Director

This page intentionally left blank.

Reviewers

This Proceedings of a Workshop was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this proceedings:

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the proceedings, nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by BARBARA ENTWISLE, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. She was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the rapporteurs and the National Academies.

This page intentionally left blank.

Contents

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

1 INTRODUCTION

National Science Foundation Programs and Perspectives

Workshop Themes

2 OVERVIEW ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN MIGRATION: CURRENT STATUS AND RESEARCH GAPS

Integrating an Earth Systems Perspective

Incorporating Social Sciences

Centering Nature and Communities

3 MECHANISMS AND PATHWAYS FOR MODELING THE IMPACTS OF CATASTROPHIC EVENTS ON HUMAN MIGRATION

Floods, Droughts, and Human Mobility

Community Resilience

Changing Human Settlement Patterns

Creating a More Holistic View of Risk

4 MECHANISMS AND PATHWAYS FOR MODELING THE IMPACTS OF CATASTROPHIC CHRONIC AND SLOW-ONSET EVENTS ON HUMAN MIGRATION

Modeling Slow-Onset Climate Events

Challenges in Modeling Climate-Induced Migration

Defining Slow-Onset Climate Impact

Discussion on Modeling Slow-Onset Events

5 TRANSDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH AND COLLABORATIONS

Considerations for Transdisciplinary Research

Connecting the Physical and Social Landscapes

A Path Forward for Transdisciplinary Research

6 REGIONAL VERSUS GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES FOR MODELING CLIMATE CHANGE–RELATED MIGRATION IMPACTS

A Global Look at Migration

Habitability, Social Drivers, and Climate Mobility Modeling

Drawing on Traditional Ecological Knowledge

7 ADVANCING AN EARTH SYSTEMS SCIENCE APPROACH TO MODELING CLIMATE MIGRATION

Harmonizing Spatial and Temporal Data

Leveraging Location-Based Data

Data Sources for Migration

Discussion on Advancing an Earth Systems Approach

8 CLOSING REFLECTIONS

REFERENCES

APPENDIXES

A Statement of Task

B Workshop Agenda

C Workshop Planning Committee Biographies

Acronyms and Abbreviations

This page intentionally left blank.