Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Wildland Fires
Toward Improved Monitoring, Modeling, and Management
______
Rachel Silvern, Rapporteur
Committee on Greenhouse Gas Emissions
from Wildland Fires: Toward Improved
Monitoring, Modeling, and Management
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and
Climate
Board on Agriculture and Natural
Resources
Polar Research Board
Division on Earth and Life Studies
Proceedings of a Workshop
NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001
This activity was supported by a contract between the National Academy of Sciences and SATManagement, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Environmental Defense Fund, and the National Academy of Sciences Arthur L. Day Fund. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-71553-9
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-71553-9
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/27473
This publication is available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu.
Copyright 2024 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and National Academies Press and the graphical logos for each are all trademarks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America.
Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Wildland Fires: Toward Improved Monitoring, Modeling, and Management: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/27473.
The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president.
The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president.
The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine.
Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.
Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task.
Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies.
Rapid Expert Consultations published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are authored by subject-matter experts on narrowly focused topics that can be supported by a body of evidence. The discussions contained in rapid expert consultations are considered those of the authors and do not contain policy recommendations. Rapid expert consultations are reviewed by the institution before release.
For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.
COMMITTEE ON GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FROM WILDLAND FIRES: TOWARD IMPROVED MONITORING, MODELING, AND MANAGEMENT
LORETTA J. MICKLEY (Chair), Harvard University
SALLY ARCHIBALD, University of the Witwatersrand
CHRIS (FERN) FERNER, Esri (Formerly)
NANCY FRENCH, Michigan Technological University
DON HANKINS, California State University, Chico
WERNER KURZ, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada (Retired)
JAMES RANDERSON (NAS), University of California, Irvine
BRENDAN ROGERS, Woodwell Climate Research Center
AMBER SOJA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Staff
RACHEL SILVERN, Program Officer, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC)
KATRINA HUI, Associate Program Officer, BASC
KARA LANEY, Senior Program Officer, Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources
ANNIE MANVILLE, Program Assistant, BASC
RACHEL SANCHEZ, Senior Program Assistant, BASC (until January 3, 2024)
HUGH WALPOLE, Associate Program Officer, BASC (until July 2023)
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
MARY GLACKIN (Chair), The Weather Company, an IBM Business (Retired)
JOSEPH ÁRVAI, University of Southern California
CYNDI ATHERTON, Heising-Simons Foundation (Formerly)
ELIZABETH BARNES, Colorado State University
BRAD R. COLMAN, American Meteorological Society
BART CROES, California Air Resources Board (Retired)
MINGHUI DIAO, San Jose State University
NEIL DONAHUE, Carnegie Mellon University
LESLEY-ANN DUPIGNY-GIROUX, University of Vermont
EFI FOUFOULA-GEORGIOU (NAE), University of California, Irvine
KEVIN GURNEY, Northern Arizona University
MARIA CARMEN LEMOS (NAS), University of Michigan
ANDREA LOPEZ LANG, University of Wisconsin–Madison
ZHANQING LI, University of Maryland
AMY MCGOVERN, University of Oklahoma
LINDA MEARNS, National Center for Atmospheric Research
JONATHAN PATZ (NAM), University of Wisconsin–Madison
KEVIN REED, Stony Brook University
JAMES MARSHALL SHEPHERD (NAS/NAE), University of Georgia
ARADHNA TRIPATI, University of California, Los Angeles
BERNEDETTE WOODS PLACKY, Climate Central
Staff
ELIZABETH EIDE, Acting Director
MAGGIE WALSER, Acting Director
KATELYN CREWS, Program Assistant
APURVA DAVE, Senior Program Officer
MORGAN DISBROW-MONZ, Program Officer
KATRINA HUI, Associate Program Officer
ANNIE MANVILLE, Program Assistant
BRIDGET MCGOVERN, Program Officer
APRIL MELVIN, Senior Program Officer
LINDSAY MOLLER, Senior Program Assistant
RACHEL SILVERN, Program Officer
STEVEN STICHTER, Senior Program Officer
BOARD ON AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES
JILL J. MCCLUSKEY (Chair), Washington State University
AMY W. ANDO, The Ohio State University
ARISTOS ARISTIDOU (NAE), Biomason
BRUNO BASSO, Michigan State University
BERNADETTE DUNHAM, George Washington University
JESSICA E. HALOFSKY, U.S. Forest Service
ERMIAS KEBREAB, University of California, Davis
MARTY D. MATLOCK, University of Arkansas
JOHN P. MCNAMARA, Washington State University
NAIMA MOUSTAID-MOUSSA, Texas Tech University
V. ALARIC SAMPLE, George Mason University
ROGER E. WYSE, Spruce Capital Partners
Staff
ROBIN SCHOEN, Director
CAMILLA YANDOC ABLES, Senior Program Officer
MALIA BROWN, Program Assistant
KARA LANEY, Senior Program Officer
ALBARAA SARSOUR, Program Officer
SAMANTHA SISANACHANDENG, Senior Program Assistant
This page intentionally left blank.
Reviewers
This Proceedings of a Workshop was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this proceedings:
LORI DANIELS, University of British Columbia
PETER FRUMHOFF, Woodwell Climate Research Center and Harvard University Center for the Environment
DON HANKINS, California State University, Chico
DAN JAFFE, University of Washington
LORETTA MICKLEY, Harvard University
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the proceedings nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by DAVID ALLEN (NAE), The University of Texas at Austin. He was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was carried out in accordance with standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the rapporteur and the National Academies.
This page intentionally left blank.
Contents
BIOMES VULNERABLE TO WILDLAND FIRES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
Roles of Fire in Presently Vulnerable Biomes and the Associated Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Observation-Based Approaches for Quantifying Emissions from Wildland Fires
Modeling Emissions from Wildland Fires
FUTURE MANAGEMENT TO SUPPORT NET-ZERO TARGETS
Accounting for Wildfire Emissions in National Reporting and Net-Zero Targets
Opportunities to Reduce Future Wildfire Emissions in Different Biomes
The Solution Space and Examples of Next Steps: Forest Management of Tomorrow and Livable Emissions
This page intentionally left blank.
