
______
Katrina Hui, Hugh Walpole, and Margo
Corum, Rapporteurs
Committee on Tipping Points, Cascading
Impacts, and Interacting Risks in the
Earth System: A Workshop
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and
Climate
Board on Earth Sciences and Resources
Division on Earth and Life Studies
Proceedings of a Workshop
NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001
This activity was supported by Grant No. 2022844 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-70134-1
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-70134-1
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/26925
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Tipping Points, Cascading Impacts, and Interacting Risks in the Earth System: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/26925.
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KRISTEN ST. JOHN (Chair), James Madison University
AMIR AGHAKOUCHAK, University of California, Irvine
KATHARINE V. CASHMAN, University of Oregon
SIMON DIETZ, London School of Economics and Political Science
TIMOTHY M. LENTON, University of Exeter
DOROTHY J. MERRITTS, Franklin and Marshall College
MICHAEL SCHOON, Arizona State University
MARGO CORUM, Study Director (until December 2023)
KATRINA HUI, Associate Program Officer (from February 2024)
PATRICIA RAZAFINDRAMBININA, Associate Program Officer (until April 2023)
HUGH WALPOLE, Associate Program Officer (until July 2024)
MAYA FREY, Senior Program Assistant (from April 2024)
SABAH RANA, Senior Program Assistant (until May 2023)
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This Proceedings of a Workshop on Tipping Points, Cascading Impacts, and Interacting Risks in the Earth System was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this proceedings:
LEE KUMP (NAS), Pennsylvania State University
MICHAEL SCHOON, Arizona State University
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the proceedings, nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by JAMES HURRELL, Colorado State University. He was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was carried out in accordance with standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the rapporteur(s) and the National Academies.
We also thank staff member Samantha Koretsky for reading and providing helpful comments on this manuscript.
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Welcome from the National Science Foundation
Background and Motivation for Workshop
Overview on Tipping Points and Expert Response
Moderated Q&A Discussion with Expert Speakers
2 HISTORICAL ANALYSIS OF PAST BIOGEOPHYSICAL AND SOCIAL TIPPING POINTS
Economic Perspective on Social Tipping Points Relating to Climate Change
Historical Example of a Tipping Point: The Dust Bowl 1930s—The Perfect Disaster
A Simplified Model of Biogeophysical Tipping Points: Lovelock’s Daisyworld
Breakout Group Discussions on Biogeophysical and Social Tipping Points
3 REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES ON CLIMATE TIPPING POINTS AND CASCADING RISK
Coastal United States: Tipping Points in Future Tropical Pacific Island Sustainability
American West: Summer Water in the West—Climate Tipping Points and Cascading Impacts
Great Plains: Tipping Points and Cascading Impacts in Nebraska
Q&A Discussion with Regional Perspectives: Overarching Themes
Breakout Group Discussions on Regional Perspectives on Climate Tipping Points and Cascading Impacts
4 EXAMPLES OF INTERDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH PRIORITIES AND OPPORTUNITIES
Insights from Indigenous Knowledge
Cascading Impacts and Environmental Justice
Moderated Q&A Discussion with Experts
Breakout Group Discussions on Interdisciplinary Research Topics and Opportunities
5 WORKSHOP SYNTHESIS, THEMES, AND CLOSING THOUGHTS