Weather Forecasting Accuracy for FAA Traffic Flow Management: A Workshop Report (2003)
Chapter: Appendix D: Workshop Agenda
Appendix D
Workshop Agenda
Weather Forecasting Accuracy for Federal Aviation Administration Traffic Flow Management Workshop
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
The National Academies
Washington, D.C.
June 4–5, 2002
Tuesday, June 4, 2002
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CLOSED SESSION |
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8:00 A.M. |
Composition and balance discussion |
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OPEN SESSION |
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9:00 A.M. |
Welcome and introductions Steve Clifford, committee chair |
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Statement of Problem |
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9:15 A.M. |
FAA Overview of Delay Problem from NAS Perspective Peter Challan, FAA, ATF-2 Deputy Associate Administrator for Air Traffic Services |
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9:35 A.M. |
Overview of Collaborative Decision-Making Process, Planning Process, Teams, Challenges When Weather Goes Bad Jack Kies, FAA, Manager for Air Traffic Tactical Operations, ATT-1 |
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9:55 A.M. |
Air Carrier Perspective of Delay Problem Russ Gold, ATA, Director, Airline Operations/Meteorology |
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10:15 A.M. |
Overview of Delays Due to Weather, History of Convective Forecast, Provision of Forecast for Traffic Planning Jim Washington, FAA, Director for Air Traffic System Requirements Service, ARS-1 |
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10:35 A.M. |
Break |
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Discussion of Collaborative Convective Forecast Product |
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10:50 A.M. |
Overview of CCFP, Forecast Content, Production, Use of CCFP, Problems and Limitations Bill Cranor, US Airways, Manager for ATC and Airfield Operations |
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11:10 A.M. |
Overview of CCFP Verification, CCFP Calibration Mark Phaneuf, AvMet Applications, Vice President Barbara Brown, NCAR, Project Scientist |
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Current State of Development |
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11:30 A.M. |
Overview of Operational Forecasting Constraints in this Problem Fred Foss, Aviation Weather Center (AWC), Chief for Domestic Operations Branch |
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11:45 A.M. |
Overview of Numerical Modeling Applied to this Problem Jack Hayes, NOAA/NWS, Director, Office of Science and Technology |
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12:00 NOON |
Working lunch in meeting room: |
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Challenges-Overview of the Accuracy Requirements Richard Heuwinkel, FAA, Manager for Aerospace Weather Policy, ARS-100 |
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1:00 P.M. |
Discussion Topic 1 What approaches/strategies will be most effective to get an accurate 3- to 6-hour forecast of areas of convection for aviation use in the next 5 to 10 years? (Accurate means a desired false alarm rate (FAR) of =0.20, a probability of detection (POD) of =0.80, a minimal FAR of =0.30, and a POD of =0.60) Discussion Leaders: Rit Carbone, Michael Fritsch, and Cindy Mueller |
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3:00 P.M. |
Break |
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3:30 P.M. |
Discussion Topic 2 What specific scientific enabling capabilities are needed to realize these gains and when will they be available? For example, what improvements, in observations, algorithms, analyses, and numerical modeling are likely to yield the best results? What are the major gaps in the current R&D activities that need to be addressed? Discussion Leaders: Andrew Crook, Kelvin Droegemeier, and Alexander MacDonald |
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5:00 P.M. |
Summary of topics |
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5:30 P.M. |
Adjourn |
Wednesday, June 5, 2002
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CLOSED SESSION |
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8:00 A.M. |
Continental breakfast |
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OPEN SESSION |
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9:00 A.M. |
Discussion Topic 3 What is the most appropriate way to present the forecast in an operational setting? • Consider the two main uses are flight planning and traffic flow management • Consider how the forecast will be developed and presented (i.e., purely probabilistic, deterministic) |
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Discussion Leaders: John McCarthy and Jim Evans |
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11:00 A.M. |
Break |
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11:15 A.M. |
Discussion Topic 4 How will we know when we’re done? What verification scheme makes the most sense from an aviation perspective? |
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Discussion Leaders: Marilyn Wolfson and Michael Prather |
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12:30 P.M. |
Lunch |
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1:30 P.M. |
Draft report of the workshop |
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4:00 P.M. |
Adjourn |
