A

Abbott, Charles Greeley, 69

Abrupt climate change. See also Climate change;

Global warming;

Ice ages;

Regional abrupt climate change

atmospheric circulation and, 119–120, 121, 151, 154, 155–156

causes, 107–109, 119–121, 133–134, 153–162

critical thresholds, 146, 147, 148, 177–178, 184, 185, 187–188

cycle frequency, 154–155

defined, 148

discovery, 53

evidence, 3, 18–19, 26, 30, 54–56, 60, 98, 99, 101, 102, 105, 107, 109, 116–128, 138, 178;

see Ice core record;

Sediment record

greenhouse gases and, 106, 107, 109, 111, 120, 123, 125–126, 152, 159, 160, 161–162, 177–180

human dimension of, 17–19, 26, 83–89, 92–93, 111, 118, 127, 163–170, 176, 183–184, 185

ice core evidence, 116–128

ice sheet failure and, 68–69, 80, 106, 107, 108, 132–133

industrial pollution and, 98, 110, 184

interstadial episodes, 121–122

modeling, 148–150, 161, 182–183, 185–186, 189

national security threat, 2

ocean circulation patterns and, 101–108, 157–159

oxygen isotope ratios and, 60, 61, 70, 79, 98, 100, 123

policy perspectives, 124, 180–181, 185–186, 189–190

predictability, 3, 54, 77–78, 110, 122–123, 127, 145, 149, 179, 182–183, 189

rate of, 18, 21, 30, 54, 79–80, 109, 118, 119–120, 124, 127, 128, 129, 134, 145

signs of, 2, 20, 55, 103, 119–120, 130, 186–187

stochastic resonance theory, 150–151, 152–153, 154

theories of, 103–110, 153–162

tidal forcing and, 155, 157

tropical feedback influences, 157–161, 180, 185, 187–188

uncertainty, 3, 109–110, 122–123, 177–190

volcanic activity and, 56, 66, 80, 121

Younger Dryas, 17–18, 24, 26, 99–100, 101–102, 107, 109

Acuna-Soto, Rodolfo, 175

Adhémar, Joseph, 72

Agassiz, Louis, 35, 67, 69, 72

Agriculture

irrigated, 165–166, 169–170

raised-field cultivation, 173

Air temperatures, 29, 133.

See also Atmosphere-Ocean system

Akkadian empire, 163, 165, 167

Albedo

of boundary layer clouds, 160

ice reflection feedback loop, 68–69, 72, 79, 154

Algae, 135

Algonquin natives, 94

Alley, Richard B., 114–116, 117–119, 120, 125, 148, 152, 153, 154, 159, 182–183, 185, 189, 190

American Association for the Advancement of Science, 29

American Geophysical Union, 127–128, 130, 131, 151, 154, 189

American Philosophical Society, 6

Anadakrishnan, Sidhar, 152

Anasazi Indians, 26, 174

Anderson, Duwayne M., 59, 61

Andes, 143, 170, 172–173

Ankhtifi, 164

Antarctic ice sheet, 115

age of, 56

bedrock, 45

Byrd Station, 38, 42, 45, 56, 103

climate on, 38

critical mass, 68–69, 187

and ice ages, 72, 79, 80, 142–143, 144

ice cores, 37, 38, 41, 42, 51, 53, 57, 98, 99, 103, 125–126, 142

Larsen B ice shelf, 187

Little America V, 42

melting of, 187, 188, 189

nuclear ban, 44

Ross Ice Shelf, 38, 42

Vostok Station, 56, 125–126

Anthropogenic effects (human activities), 78, 80–81, 101, 170, 177–178, 184–185–186.

See also Fossil fuels;

Industrial pollution

Arabian Sea, 137, 139, 167

Archer, Gabriel, 94

Argon isotope measurements, 169

Aridification events. See Droughts

Arutunoff, Armais, 45

Atlantic Ocean, 30, 58, 107.

See also North Atlantic

Atlantis, 66

Atmosphere-ocean system, 102.

See also Atmospheric circulation;

Ocean circulation;

Thermohaline circulation

feedback processes, 23, 72, 146, 147, 154, 160, 161, 170, 184–185

general circulation models, 105–106, 147, 148–149

nonlinear characteristics, 146–148

tropical convection, 157–158, 160, 188–189

Atmospheric circulation

and abrupt climate change, 8, 119–120, 121, 138, 139, 155–156, 164, 168

cascade of effects, 68

polar, 8, 11

and ocean sediment record, 139, 140

and precipitation, 168

temperature and, 164

trade winds, 140

vegetation losses and, 170

westerly superrotation, 188

Aviation, trans-Atlantic, 33–34

B

Bacteria, 162

Bader, Henri, 13, 14, 34–38, 41, 42, 43, 45, 47, 48, 51, 158

Baja California sediment record, 138–139

Bald cypresses, 93

Bar-Mathews, Miryam, 141

Barbados coral, 74

Bard, Edouard, 141

Barlow, Lisa K., 88–89

Beetle carcasses, fossilized, 25

Bermuda, 95, 96

Bermudez, Juan, 95

Beryllium isotope studies, 51, 143

Biblical fundamentalists, 22

Binford, Michael W., 173

Black Death. See Bubonic plague

Blanton, Dennis B., 93

Blessing (ship), 94

Blunier, Thomas, 142

Bond, Gerard, 4, 130–134, 154

Bond cycles, 132–133, 134

Boston University, 39, 48

Brazil, 161

British Antarctic Survey, 127

British Arctic Air-Route Expedition, 11

Broecker, Wallace S., 30, 70, 73, 74–75, 76, 100–110, 112, 117, 130, 131, 132, 154, 155, 156, 159, 160, 179–180, 189

Brooks, C. E. P., 23, 66, 68

Brown University, 79

Bubonic plague, 85, 87-88

Byrd Station, 38, 42, 45, 56, 103

C

Cacho, Isabel, 141

California, 26, 137, 174

California Institute of Technology, 50, 51

Canada, 103, 107

Cannibalism, 85, 95, 168

Carbon

taxes, 186

sediment reservoir, 162

Carbon-14. See Radiocarbon dating

Carbon dioxide, atmospheric

and abrupt climate change, 106, 107, 109, 120, 152, 178, 180, 184, 188–189

greenhouse properties, 67–68, 70, 98, 109

ice age concentrations, 99, 101

ice core record, 50, 52, 60, 97–99

Keeling curve, 98

and ocean circulation, 102

preindustrial levels, 99

Cariaco Basin, 139–141, 161, 172

Caribbean Sea

salinity, 160

sediment records, 76, 139–140, 160

Cave stalagmite and stalagtite record, 141–142

Centre for Environment, Fisheries, and Aquaculture Science (UK), 186

Chaotic systems, 3, 54, 77–78, 110, 122-123, 146–147, 184, 185

Chappellaz, Jérôme, 125

Charney, Jule G., 170

Chesapeake Bay, 94

Chilean Andes, 143, 170

China

Hulu Cave record, 141

weather disasters, 84–85

Chiripa culture, 173

Chloride aerosols, 103

Clathrate Gun Hypothesis, 161–162

Clausen, Henrik B., 70

Claussen, Martin, 170

Clay varves, 25, 134, 141

Clement, Amy C., 161

Climate change. See also Global warming;

Ice ages;

Paleoclimatology

anthropogenic causes, 78, 80, 101

astronomical theories, 55, 56, 61, 67–78, 80, 98, 108, 110, 120, 146, 184

atmospheric feedback processes, 23, 72, 154

decadal variability, 185, 186

geological theories, 56, 66, 67, 80, 114, 120, 121, 133

greenhouse gas theory, 67–68, 120

human impacts, 90–96

lower-magnitude shifts, 19, 154

millennial-scale events, 107;

see also Abrupt climate change

modeling and predicting, 110, 111, 122–123, 146–147

rate of, 22–23, 27, 28, 79–80, 109–110

short-term variations, 137;

see also El Niño

systematic oscillations, 55, 60, 70, 71, 86, 106, 107, 123

theories of, 66–81, 146

uncertainties in, 67, 80–81, 178-190

Climate surprise, 178–190

Climatology, 4.

See also Paleoclimatology

polar air circulation, 8, 11

stable climate view, 21–23, 24, 74, 89–90, 108, 109–110, 118, 145–146, 150, 175–176, 179–180

unstable climate view, 23–24

Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, 52, 59, 70

Cold War, 34, 37, 38, 44, 57

Columbia University, 73, 100–101, 189

Columbus, Christopher, 90–91

Computer models

abrupt climate change, 148–150, 154, 161, 174, 179, 182–183, 187

Dansgaard-Oeschger recurrence times, 154

economic impacts, 185–186

general circulation, 105–106, 147, 148–149

ice ages, 105, 153, 148–149

intermediate complexity, 150, 153

nonlinear behavior, 146–148, 182

of recent past, 183

regional climate change, 174

sensitivity of, 182–183, 189

and weather forecasting, 150

Continental drift theory, 6–7, 15, 67, 128, 130

Coral record, 25, 74–75

Cortes, Hernando, 91

Courtauld, Augustine, 11, 13

Courty, Marie-Agnès, 166

Cowen, Robert C., 68

Croatan natives, 93

Croll, James, 72

Cronin, Thomas M., 99

Cullen, Heidi M., 166–167

Curry, Ruth, 186–187

D

Dana, James D., 67

Dansgaard, Willi, 29, 50, 52–53, 55–56, 57, 58, 59, 60–61, 70, 76, 79, 79, 80, 86, 88, 99–100, 103, 107, 109, 111, 112, 117, 121, 128, 131, 132

Dansgaard-Oeschger warming events, 101–102, 107, 109, 119–120, 121–122, 126, 131, 133, 134, 137, 138, 139, 141, 142–143, 148, 150–153, 177

Dartmouth University, 52

Darwin, Charles, 78, 129

The Day After Tomorrow (film), 2

De Geer, Gerhard, 25, 134

Dead Sea, 167

Debenham, Frank, 12

Deforestation, 171, 172

deMenocal, Peter B., 166–167

Dendrochronology, 25–26, 36, 90, 93–94, 173, 175

Denmark, 8, 33, 34, 45–46

Denton, George H., 143

Desert Research Institute, 113

Deuterium. See Hydrogen isotope analysis

Dickson, Robert, 186

Disease outbreaks, 85, 94, 171, 174–175

Distant Early Warning system, 34, 46, 57, 112

Donn, William, 68, 79

Douglass, Andrew Ellicott, 26

Drake, Francis, 93

Dreizack Seamount, 132

Droughts, 26, 93–94, 141, 159, 165–168, 170–171, 172, 173–175, 176, 184, 185, 187–188

Dryas octopetala, 19, 20, 136

Duke University, 149

E

Earth orbital changes, 56, 61, 67, 69, 71–73, 77–78, 80, 98, 108, 110, 146, 147, 170, 184

Eemian period, 53, 123–124, 125–126

Egypt, Old Kingdom, 163, 164, 168

El Niño–Southern Oscillation, 78, 137, 159–160, 161, 170, 184, 185, 188

Emiliani, Cesare, 29, 75–76, 80–81

Emu eggshell chemistry, 25

Environmental carrying capacity, 172

Epstein, Samuel, 50, 51

Ericson, David B., 75

Erik the Red, 83, 87

Europe

climate driver, 105

drought, 187

extreme weather events, 85

glaciology, 35, 73

Little Ice Age, 174

Medieval Warm Period, 173

vulnerability, 186

Younger Dryas in, 18–19, 20, 25, 28, 30, 103, 105, 143

Evolution theory of, 78

Ewing, Maurice, 68, 79, 101, 130

F

Failing 1500 drill, 40, 42

Famine, 85, 95, 96, 164, 167, 168, 171

Feldman, Theodore S., 69, 70

Fennoscandian ice sheet, 136

Flint, Richard Foster, 28

Floods, 84–85, 159, 170

Florida, 91, 92

Food security, 25, 78, 94, 111, 179.

See also Famine

Foraminifera, 25, 26–27, 29, 75–76, 110, 136

Forest fires, 114

Fossil fuels, 78, 98

Four Corners region (U.S.), 26

France, 141

G

Ganopolski, Andrey, 153

Gasse, Françoise, 168–169

General circulation models, 105–106

Gentry, Dominique, 141

Geochronology, 135

Geological Society of America, 180

Geological timescale, 21, 55, 109, 128

Georgi, Johannes, 10, 11, 14

Germany, 34

Glaciers. See also specific glaciers

alpine, 35, 36, 73, 76, 143

Egesen moraine complex, 143

ice age evidence in, 35, 76, 143–144

Lake Misery moraines, 143

measurements, 10

melting, 2, 49

mineral content, 35–36

North America, 28

patterns and deposits, 35, 73, 133

pollen markers of movements, 19–20

precipitation record, 36

South America, 143

in temperate climates, 36, 49

Giant sequoia, 26

Global warming. See also Greenhouse effect

abrupt, 30, 70, 76, 99–100, 101–102, 105, 106

cascade of atmospheric effects, 68, 187

Dansgaard-Oeschger events, 101–102, 107, 109, 119–120, 121–122, 126, 131, 133, 134, 137, 138, 139, 141, 142–143, 148, 150–153

ice core record, 70

and ocean circulation, 180

oxygen isotope ratios, 102, 107, 122, 141

political debate, 92, 109, 181–182

and precipitation, 85

sea surface temperatures, 187

Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 105

Göttingen University, 7

Great Flood, 22

Great Lakes Basin, 28, 30, 151

Great Ocean Conveyor, 104–105, 151, 152, 153, 156

Greenhouse effect, 52, 67–68, 70, 98, 99, 101, 106, 107, 109, 111, 120, 123, 139, 159, 161–162, 177–180, 184, 185.

See also Carbon dioxide;

Methane;

Water vapor

Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP), 112, 113, 116, 121, 131–132, 153

Greenland ice sheet

aerial radio-echo survey, 57–58

age of, 56

aviation weather stations, 33–34

bedrock, 45, 46, 52, 57

bore holes, 11–15

British Arctic Air-Route Expedition, 11

Camp Century, 44–45, 52–57, 59, 60, 61–62, 70, 79, 86, 102, 108, 109, 111, 116, 122

Crête, 58–59, 86, 88

Danish expeditions, 8

deep core drilling, 38, 39, 41–42, 44–46, 48, 58–59

density-depth relationship, 12–13, 14

Dye 3, 59–60, 61, 62, 63, 99, 101, 102, 108, 109, 112, 116, 129, 135, 136

Eastern Settlement, 84, 89

Eismitte, 5–15, 53, 128

Hans Tausen, 58

ice core climate record, 1, 3, 30–31, 33, 51, 52–63, 69–70, 79, 81, 85, 86, 98, 99, 101, 102, 108, 109, 110, 111–128, 129–130, 135, 136, 138, 140, 149

melting of, 187

naming of, 86–87

nuclear ban, 44

optimum locations for drilling, 58–59, 86, 88, 111-112, 115–116

Peary expeditions, 33

seismic measurements, 7–8, 12–13

Site 2, 85

South Dome, 58

Summit site, 112, 113-122, 129–130, 140, 149

temperature profile, 12, 115

thickness, 13

Thule Air Force Base, 34, 39, 44

U.S.-Denmark transactions, 33–34

U.S. strategic interests, 34, 57, 59, 111

Viking (Old Norse) settlements, 83–84, 86–90, 93, 173

weather conditions, 8–9, 37–38, 39–40, 51, 86–87, 88, 120, 121

Wegener Expedition, 5–10, 14–15, 33

Western Settlement, 84, 88, 89

Greenland Ice Sheet Program (GISP), 45–46, 57, 61–62, 86, 111–112

Greenland Ice Sheet Program-2 (GISP2), 45–46, 112, 113–120, 124, 138, 141, 153

Gregory, John Walter, 21–22

Grootes, Pieter M., 125

Gulf of Mexico, 30, 108, 151

Gulf of Oman, 166–167

Gulf Steam, 104–105

Gundrestrupp, Niels, 45–46

H

Habur Plains, 165

Häkkinen, Sirpa, 187

Hammer, Claus, 113, 125, 127

Hansen, Lyle, 43

Harappan civilization, 163–164, 167–168

Harvard University, 158

Hassan, Fekri, 168

Haug, Gerald H., 172, 175

Hays, James D., 77, 78

Heinrich, Harmut, 107, 132

Heinrich events, 107, 126, 131, 132, 133, 134, 137, 139, 141

Hemorrhagic fever, 174–175

Herschel, William, 69

Hinrichs, Kai-Uwe, 162

Hispaniola, 90–91

Hobbs, William H., 8–9

Hodell, David, 172

Hoerling, Martin, 187

Holocene period, 90, 100

Bronze Age civilization, 163–164

cooling and drying episodes, 169

Little Ice Age, 85, 86, 117, 123, 174

low-magnitude changes, 154, 168–169

Medieval Warm Period, 173

paleoclimate records, 175

precipitation patterns, 170

regional abrupt climate changes, 163–170

Sahara desertification, 170

“stability,” 62–63, 168, 175–176, 181, 182

transition to, 118, 120, 121, 169

Hughen, Konrad A., 140

Hudson Bay, 152

Hudson Strait, 152

Humphreys, William J., 23, 66, 67

Hunter-gatherer society, 19

Huntington, Ellsworth, 90

Hurricanes, 90–91, 94–95

Hydrogen isotope analysis, 88

I

Ice ages, 19.

See also Abrupt climate change;

Climate change;

Younger Dryas

Bond cycles, 132–133, 134

causes of, 55–56, 60–61, 72, 79, 80, 133, 161–162

cycle frequency, 76, 77, 78

Europe, 18–19, 20, 25, 28, 30, 35, 105

extreme cold events, 132, 133

glacier evidence, 35, 76, 143–144

greenhouse gases and, 67–68, 99, 101, 161–162

Heinrich events, 107, 126, 131, 132, 133, 134, 137, 139, 141

human impacts of, 83–89

mean global temperature, 65

Milankovich theory, 71–72

modeling, 153

North America, 25, 28, 105

ocean circulation patterns, 105, 106, 108, 156, 186

ocean sediment record, 74–75, 131–133

orbital forcing and, 56, 61, 67, 69, 71–73, 77–78, 80, 98

oxygen isotope profile, 55, 60–61, 75–76

Pleistocene, 13

predictions, 78–79

rapid termination, 76, 109

“Rosetta Stone,” 77

sea levels, 65

temperatures prior to, 88

theories of, 66, 67, 72–75

timescale, 21, 22, 72, 73–74, 75–76, 109

warming episodes during, 99–100, 101–102, 107, 109, 119–120, 121–122, 126, 131–132, 133, 134, 137, 138, 139, 141, 142–143, 148, 150–153

Wisconsin, 53, 54, 60

Ice cores. See also Greenland;

Polar ice

abrupt climate change record, 116–128

air bubbles, 50, 52, 60, 97–98, 99, 114–115, 125–126, 142, 169

analysis, 38, 39, 47–63

Antarctic record, 37, 38, 41, 42, 51, 53, 57, 98, 99, 103, 125–126

boundary between epochs, 117–120

carbon dioxide in, 50, 52, 60, 97–99

Byrd Station record, 38, 42, 55–56

Camp Century record, 52–57, 61, 70, 79, 81, 86, 99, 102, 108, 109, 122

chemical composition, 50, 59, 60, 97–98, 99

continuity of information, 47–48, 53–54, 58, 62–63, 130

Crête record, 58–59, 86, 88

deep-ice, 38, 39, 41–42, 44–46, 48, 49–51, 52, 54, 55–56, 58–59

depth and quality of, 41–42, 45, 46, 48–49, 52, 53, 56, 58, 119, 123, 124–125

distortions in, 116, 124–125

drilling methods and equipment, 38, 39, 40, 42–44, 45

dry-zone layer, 49

Dye 3 record, 59–60, 61, 62, 63, 99, 101, 102, 108, 109, 112, 129, 135, 136

electrical conductivity measurements, 113–115, 117, 119, 121, 125

Electrodrill, 45, 59

elements of, 1, 48

Failing 1500 drill, 40, 42

ISTUK drill, 45–46

methane in, 142, 161

optimum locations for drilling, 58–59, 86, 88, 111-112, 115–116

oxygen isotope ratios, 29, 50–55, 59, 60, 86, 122, 125, 132, 169

pressure effects, 48

Quelccaya record, 170

science trench, 113

seasonal swings in, 50–51, 114, 115

sediment record correspondence, 138, 139, 140–141

Site 2, 85

Summit record, 113–128, 129–130, 138, 140, 149

from temperate glaciers, 49, 170

thermal drill, 43–44, 58–59, 86

visual stratigraphy, 114–115

Vostok record, 125–126

Younger Dryas record, 118–120

Ice reflection feedback loop, 68–69, 72, 79, 154

Ice surges, 56, 79, 80

Icebergs, 107, 126, 131, 132, 134, 140, 152

Iceland, 85–88, 123, 133, 173

Imbrie, John, 77, 78

Indian Ocean, 139, 187

Indus River Valley, 167–168

Industrial pollution, 3–4, 38, 98, 110, 184

Ingram, B. Lynn, 138

Insolation, defined, 56.

See also Solar radiance

Interglacial periods, 53, 63, 175

International Atomic Energy Agency, 53

International Geophysical Year, 14, 37, 42, 51, 57, 158

International Glaciological Society, 51

Intertropical Convergence Zone, 140, 160, 172, 188

Inuit, 89

Iselin, Columbus, 68

Isles of the Devils, 95.

See also Bermuda

Israel, Soreq Cave, 141

Italy, 103

Ivy-Ochs, Susan, 143

J

James River, 94

Jamestown settlements, 92, 93, 95, 96

Jansen, Eystein, 135

Jessen, Knud, 19

Johnsen, Sigfus J., 70, 109, 122, 123, 125

JOIDES Resolution (research vessel), 138

Jourdain, Sylvester, 96

Juneau Icefield, 35

Jung, Peter, 152

K

Kapsner, Wanda, 117, 121

Karpuz, Nalân Koç, 135

Keeling, Charles D., 98, 99, 154–155

Keeling curve, 98

Keigwin, Lloyd D., 135, 136

Kemp, Alan E. S., 140

Kennett, James P., 138, 139, 161

Kepler, Johannes, 71

Kerr, Richard A., 4, 124

Kipling, Rudyard, 66

Kobashi, Takuro, 169

Kolata, Alan L., 173

Kominz, Michele A., 131

Köppen, Vladimir, 6, 67, 73, 76

Korean War, 37

Kukla, George, 76

Kullenberg, Börje, 73

Kumar, Arun, 187

Kyoto Protocol, 181

L

La Niña, 161

Laird, Kathleen R., 165, 166

Lake Faiyum, 168

Lake Titicaca, 173

Lake Van, 167

Lamb, Hubert H., 90

Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, 4, 130–132, 154

Deep Sea Drilling Program, 130–132

Ocean Sediment Core Laboratory, 133

Lamont Geological Observatory, 30, 70, 73, 75, 76, 77, 101

Lange, G. Robert, 39

Langway, Chester C., Jr., 14, 38–39, 41, 42, 47–53, 57, 58, 59, 60–61, 70, 85, 86, 100, 111, 117, 128

Latif, Mojib, 161

Laurentide ice sheet (Canada), 58, 107, 108, 132–133, 136, 151, 152

Lehman, Scott J., 135, 136

Lewinton, Richard, 158

Libby, Willard F., 27, 28

Little America V, 42

Little Ice Age, 85, 86, 117, 123, 174

Loewe, Fritz, 9, 10, 14

Lorenz, Edward N., 147, 148, 150

Lorius, Claude, 98, 101

Lowell, Thomas V. 143

Lotti, Rusty, 133

Ludlum, David M., 91

Lyell, Charles, 67

M

Marie Byrd Station, 38, 42, 55–56

Marotzke, Jochem, 156

Mass spectrometric analysis, 50–51, 53, 75

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 147, 157

Matthews, Robley K., 74–75

Maurice Ewing Medal, 130

Mayan civilization, 171–172, 175

Mayewski, Paul, 117, 127, 154

McGovern, Thomas H., 89

Medieval Warm Period, 85

Mediterranean Sea, 141

Meinardus, Wilhelm, 8

Meteorology. See Weather

Methane, 52, 125–126, 142, 161–162

Mexico, 91, 174–175

Middle East, 141, 166–167

Milankovitch, Milutin, 72–73, 76

Milankovitch theory, 71–75, 76, 77, 78, 80

Mississippi River basin, 108, 151

Moche civilization, 170–171

Monsoons, 139, 141, 185

Moon Lake, 165, 166

Morrison, Michael, 124

N

National Academy of Sciences, Committee on Polar Research, 37, 57

National Research Council, 148

Committee on Abrupt Climate Change, 159, 160, 169, 182, 183–184, 185, 189

National Science Foundation, 42, 59, 61, 111–112

National security threats, 2

Natufians, 17–18, 165

Natural Environmental Research Council (UK), 186

Naval Observatory (Hamburg), 10

New England, 25, 91

New Zealand, 103, 143

Newfoundland, 91

Nigeria, Kajemarum Oasis, 168

Niggli, Paul, 35

Nile River, 168

Nitrate aerosols, 103

Nitrogen isotope measurements, 169

Nobel Prizes, 27, 28

Nonlinear behavior. See also Chaotic systems

climate systems, 147, 183

computer modeling, 146–148, 183

stochastic resonance, 150–151, 152–153, 154

thermohaline circulation, 150–151, 157

North America

climate politics in, 92, 109, 181

droughts, 166, 173–175, 187

glaciers, 28

rapid climate change, 92–94, 165, 166

Younger Dryas in, 25, 28, 105

North Atlantic Deep Water, 102, 105

North Atlantic Drift, 104–105

North Atlantic Ocean

circulation pattern, 104, 106, 108, 135, 136, 153, 155, 160, 169, 184, 186–187

climate influence of, 84, 188

cyclone track, 58, 90, 121, 184–185

deepwater formation, 102, 105, 108, 136, 140, 150, 151, 152, 153, 158, 159

equilibrium mode switching, 147, 150–151, 153, 154, 156

freshening, 186–187

Heinrich events, 107, 131, 132, 133, 134, 137, 139

ice age conditions, 132, 136

satellite observations, 187

sediment cores, 102, 105, 107, 109, 110, 131, 132, 134, 136, 139, 140, 154

subpolar gyre, 187

surface water changes, 61, 100–101, 105, 106, 110, 136

thermohaline transport, 103–104, 136, 141, 150, 151, 154, 156, 157–158, 169, 186–187

North Atlantic Oscillation, 184–185

North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 34

North Carolina, 92–93

North Greenland Ice Core Project (NorthGRIP), 126

North Pacific Ocean, 103–104, 137–138

Norwegian Sea, 135, 136–137

Norwegian Trench, 135

O

Ocean circulation. See also Atmosphere-ocean system;

Atmospheric circulation;

North Atlantic Ocean

and abrupt climate change, 101–108, 120

carbon dioxide and, 102

changes in, 61, 100, 135

collapse of, 136–137

correlation with climate events, 101–102, 135, 136, 141

ice age, 105, 106, 108, 156

Great Ocean Conveyor, 104–105, 151, 152, 153, 156

modeling, 105–106

Oeschger oscillations, 106, 178

polar ice melting and, 106, 107, 108, 151–152

radiocarbon studies, 101, 140

sea surface temperatures and, 103–104, 105, 106, 110, 138

sediment record of, 105, 136, 140

stable states, 103–104, 106

thermohaline, 103–105, 106, 108, 136, 141, 142, 147–148, 150–151, 154, 156, 157–158, 159, 169

Ocean Drilling Program, 138

Ocean sediment record

of abrupt climate change, 30, 76–77, 81, 105, 107, 109, 128, 131–132, 137, 138, 139, 140, 154–155, 166

Arabian Sea cores, 137, 139, 167

Baja California record, 138–139

best sites for, 137–138

bioturbation effect, 134, 136

Cariaco Basin cores, 139–141, 161, 172

Caribbean Sea cores, 76, 139–140, 160

core extraction methods, 27, 73

Dansgaard-Oeschger events in, 138, 139

of deepwater formation, 105, 136, 140

deposition rates, 135–136, 140

detail in, 134, 137

Dreizack Seamount core, 132

foraminifera, 25, 26–27, 29, 75–76, 110, 136

Gulf of Mexico cores, 30, 151

Gulf of Oman record, 166–167

of ice ages, 74–75, 131–133

ice-core correspondence, 138, 139, 140–141

iceberg debris, 107, 131, 132, 134, 140, 152

long-core, 75

Mediterranean, 141

North Atlantic cores, 102, 105, 107, 109, 110, 131, 132, 134, 136, 139, 140, 154

North Pacific cores, 137–138

Norwegian Sea cores, 135–137

oxygen isotope analysis, 26–27, 75, 103, 136, 141, 167

oxygen minimum zone, 137–138, 140

precipitation record, 172

Santa Barbara Basin cores, 137–138, 161, 162

sea surface conditions from, 139–140

seasonal records, 135

South Atlantic cores, 77, 137

Southern Ocean cores, 69

stable isotope analysis, 26–27, 75–76, 77, 103, 136, 166

visual color record, 131–132

western equatorial Pacific cores, 77

Oeschger, Hans, 51–52, 53, 57, 59, 60–61, 98, 99–100, 101, 102, 106, 107, 109, 111, 112, 117, 121, 128, 177–178, 179, 181

Oldest Dryas, 20

Ortiz, Joseph, 139

Overpeck, Jonathan T., 175–176, 187–188

Overpopulation, 171, 173, 180

Oxygen isotope ratios

abrupt climate change evidence, 60, 61, 70, 79, 98, 100, 102, 107, 123, 125, 132, 141

cave stalagmites, 141

depth of cores and, 125

foram profile, 75

frequency analysis, 153

human history correlated with, 86–87, 167

of ice ages, 29, 54, 55, 60–61, 75–76, 115, 141

ice core analysis, 29, 50–55, 59, 60, 76, 86, 122, 125, 132, 169

and ice sheet volume, 29, 76

insolation and, 80

as paleothermometer, 28–29, 70, 75, 115

seasonal variations, 52, 61

sediment analysis, 26–27, 75, 103, 136, 141, 167

of warming events, 102, 107, 122, 141

Oxygen minimum zone, 137–138, 140

P

Pacific Ocean

sea surface temperatures, 187

tropical feedback influences, 157–161, 180, 185, 187–188

western equatorial cores, 77

Packrat dung fossils, 25

Pakistan, 137, 139

Paleoclimatology

defined, 21

human history matched to, 86

international collaboration, 52–53, 57, 112, 127–128

“local noise,” 24, 54, 60, 102, 129

and ocean circulation studies, 100–101

proxy measures, 18, 19–20, 24–27, 28–29, 54, 60

radiocarbon dating, 27–28

temperature record, 26–27, 28–29

Paleoceanography, 130–131.

See also Ocean sediment record

Paleothermometer, 28–29, 70, 75, 115.

See also Oxygen isotope ratios

Peary, Robert, 33

Peat record, 74

Peel, David, 127

Pennisi, Elizabeth, 112

Pennsylvania State University, 115, 117

Pepy II, 168

Peteet, Dorothy M., 102, 105

Peterson, Larry C., 141, 161

Petrology, 131

Pierrehumbert, Raymond T., 20–21, 159, 160, 188

Plankton. See Foraminifera

Plants, cold tolerance, 19

Plate tectonics, 4, 6–7, 78, 130

Pleistocene, 13

Polar ice. See also Antarctic ice sheet;

Glaciers;

Greenland ice sheet;

Ice cores;

Laurentide ice sheet

annual layering, 48, 134

atmospheric archive in, 13, 36, 38, 50, 97–98

bedrock depth and composition, 43, 45, 46

bore holes, 36, 40

brittle zone, 41–42

dry-snow zone, 49

failure of ice sheet, 68–69, 80, 107, 108, 132–133, 151

firn, 12, 48, 49, 51

geothermal heat and, 152

high-density glacial ice, 48, 49

melting, 2, 74–75, 106, 107, 108, 136, 151–152, 169, 187

military interests, 37, 38

oxygen isotope ratios, 29, 76

physics of, 40–41, 43, 48

radioactive fallout record, 38

stratigraphic analysis, 39

volume changes, 2, 74–75, 76, 120, 184

zone of zero permeability, 49

Poles

magnetic reversal, 73, 77

wandering, 67

Policy perspectives, 3, 24, 109, 124, 180–181, 185–186, 189–190

Pollen fossil record, 18, 19–20, 24, 25, 30, 54, 61, 103, 105, 109, 172

Ponce de Leon, Juan, 91

Ponderosa pine, 26

Potassium isotope analysis, 77

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 153

Precipitation. See also Droughts;

Floods

atmospheric circulation and, 168

glacier record, 36

monsoons, 139, 141, 185

rainfall, 167–168, 172

sediment record, 172

snowfall, 85, 120–121

temperatures and, 85, 120–121, 164–165

titanium proxy, 172

tropical Pacific influences, 185

Predictions/predictability

abrupt climate change, 3, 54, 77–78, 110, 122–123, 127, 145, 149, 179, 182–183, 189

ice age, 78–79

Proof-of-concept project, 47

Public awareness of change, 2

Puerto Rico, 91

R

Radiocarbon studies, 27–28, 30, 50, 51, 73-74, 76, 100–101, 140, 141, 174

Rahmstorf, Stefan, 153, 154, 157

Raleigh, Walter, 92, 94, 175

Regional abrupt climate change. See also Droughts;

Floods

anthropogenic factors, 170, 171–172

human impacts of, 163–171

orbital influences, 170

sediment record 172

Rial, José A., 149

Rhines, Peter, 187

Rind, David, 102, 105

Ristvet, Lauren, 168

Roanoke colony, 92–93, 175

Ross Ice Shelf, 38, 42

Rossby, Carl G., 3–4

Royal Geographical Society, 11, 15

Royal Society, 140

S

Sahara Desert, 170

Salinity, 103–104, 160, 161, 186–187;

see also Thermohaline circulation

Santa Barbara Basin, 137–138, 161, 162

Sargasso Sea, 91

Sargon the Akkadian, 163, 165

Scandinavia, 18–19, 20, 25, 58, 61

Schmidt, Matthew W., 160–161

Schott, Wolfgang, 26, 75

Schulz, Hartmut, 139

Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 98, 169

Sea Adventure (ship), 94–96

Sea ice, 84, 123, 135, 152, 154, 187.

See also Icebergs

Sea levels, 65, 68, 74–75, 187

Sea surface conditions

sediment record, 139–140

temperatures, 103–104, 105, 106, 110, 136, 141, 161, 187

Seawater

radiocarbon dating, 101

salinity, 103–104, 160, 161, 186–187

sampler, 101

Sediment record. See also Ocean sediment record

of abrupt climate change, 109, 128, 141, 165, 167

benchmarking ice core record with, 54

cave stalactites and stalagmites, 141–142

lake and bog, 18–19, 20, 30, 48, 54, 60, 61, 99, 103, 109, 141, 165, 167, 172, 173, 175

Lake Titicaca record, 173

Moon Lake record, 165, 166

pollen fossils in, 18, 19–20, 24, 25, 30, 54, 61, 103, 105, 109, 172

radiocarbon dating, 30, 76, 141

regional events in, 172

stratigraphic analysis, 25, 48

varves, 25, 134, 141

Seismic measurements, 7–8, 12–13

Shackleton, Nicholas, 75–76, 77, 78

Shakespeare, William, 96

Shimada, Izumi, 170

Sierra Nevada, 174

Smith, John, 92, 94, 95

Snow, Ice and Permafrost Research Establishment (SIPRE), 34, 38–39, 41, 47, 51.

See also Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory

Snowfall, 85, 120–121

Spero, Howard J., 160–161

Solar radiance, 55, 56, 61, 68, 69–72, 73, 74–75, 77–78, 80, 120, 152, 154, 158, 161

Somers, George, 94, 95

Somers Islands. See Bermuda

Sorge, Ernst, 10, 11–14, 35, 48, 53, 128

Sorge’s Law of Densification, 14

South America, 103, 143

South Atlantic

cores, 77, 137

tropical circulation, 161

Southern Hemisphere, 142, 143

Southern Ocean, 69

Spain, 103, 141

Spanish Armada, 93

St. Lawrence River, 108, 151

Stable isotope analysis, 26–27, 28–29, 52, 53, 60, 70, 73, 74–76, 77, 88, 103, 136, 141, 166.

See also Oxygen isotope ratios

Stahle, David W., 93, 175, 176

State University of New York at Buffalo, 58

Staubwasser, Michael, 167

Stine, Scott, 174

Stochastic resonance, 150–151, 152–153, 154

Stocker, Thomas F., 156, 178

Stommel, Henry, 103, 147

Strachey, William, 94, 96

Stratigraphic analysis, 25, 39, 48, 114–115

Stuiver, Minze, 127

Submarine Vulcanism Theory, 66

Sulfate aerosols, 103

Sullivan, Walter, 124

Sunspots cycles, 69–70

Switzerland, 46, 99, 103

T

Taku Glacier, 35, 43

Taylor, Kendrick C., 113–114, 117, 118, 119, 120, 121, 125, 128

Teleconnections, 135, 138

Tell Leilan/Shekhna archaeological site, 165–166

Temperatures

air, 29, 133

current, 81

foram profile, 75

and greenhouse gases, 68, 70

Greenland ice sheet profile, 12, 115

hydrogen isotope ratios and, 88

mean global, during ice ages, 65, 136

ocean, 29, 68, 75–76, 103–104, 105, 106, 110

and ocean circulation, 103–104, 105, 106, 110, 138

oxygen isotope ratios and, 60, 75

paleothermometer, 28–29, 60, 75–76

and precipitation patterns, 85, 120–121, 164–165

regional differences, 164

rising, 2

sea surface, 103–104, 105, 106, 110, 136, 141, 161

and snowfall, 85, 120–121

Younger Dryas profile, 115, 158, 159

The Tempest (Shakespeare), 96

Thermodynamics of the Atmosphere (Wegener), 8

Thermohaline circulation, 103–104, 136, 141, 147–148, 150–151, 154, 156, 157–158, 159, 169, 186–187

Thompson, Lonnie G., 170

Thorium isotope studies, 74

Tidal cycles, 155

Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, 167, 169

Tiwanaku civilization, 172–173

Tree ring analysis. See Dendrochronology

Trichloroethylene, 44

Tritium, 51, 53

U

United Kingdom, 186

United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate Change, 185–186

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 182, 189

Université Aix-Marseille, 168

University of Alaska, Fairbanks, 46

University of Arizona, 175

University of Bergen, 135

University of Bern, 51, 60, 178

University of California, 160

University of Chicago, 27, 28

University of Copenhagen, 19, 45, 50, 53

Geophysical Isotope Laboratory, 86

University of Graz, 7

University of Miami, 51

University of Michigan, 8

University of Minnesota at St. Paul, 34

University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill Wave Propagation Laboratory, 149

Urey, Harold C., 28–29

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 34–35, 37, 45, 51, 59, 70, 111

U.S. Coast Guard, 34

U.S. Geological Survey, 38

U.S. National Committee for International Geophysical Year, 38, 41, 158

U.S. Weather Bureau, 66, 67

V

van Donk, Jan, 76

Velikovsky, Immanuel, 22

Vema research vessel, 77

Venezuela, 137, 139–140, 161

Vikings, 52, 83–84, 86–90, 93

Villumsen, Rasmus, 9, 14

Virgin Islands, 33

Virginia, 92–93

Virginia Company, 92, 94–95

Visual stratigraphy, 114–115, 131–132

Voelker, Antje H. L., 142

Volcanic activity, 56, 66, 67, 80, 114, 121, 133, 166

Vostok Station, 56

W

Wandering pole theory, 67

Wang, Yongjin, 141

Water availability, 26, 165, 169, 171, 173, 186.

See also Drought;

Floods;

Precipitation

Water vapor, 159, 160, 180

Watkins, Gino, 11

Weart, Spencer R., 81

Weather

chaotic behavior, 148, 150

extreme events, 2, 84–85, 93–94;

see also Droughts;

Floods;

Hurricanes

forecasting, 148, 150

Greenland ice sheet, 8–9, 11, 33–34, 37–38, 39–40, 51, 86–87, 88, 120, 121

observation methods, 8, 11, 33–34

polar stations, 33–34

sunspots and, 69

Wegener, Alfred Lohar, 5–10, 14–15, 33, 67, 73, 76, 128, 130

Wegener, Else, 14–15

Weiss, Harvey, 165, 167, 169–170

Wetlands, climate proxy for, 125–126

White, James (colonial governor), 93

White, James W. C., 109, 124, 125

Whort, Timothy P., 154–155

Wieckert, Emil, 7–8

Wildlife, 111, 179

Wilson, Alex T., 68, 69, 79

Wisconsin

ice age, 53, 54, 60

Two Creeks Forest Bed, 28

Wood, Warren T., 162

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 68, 135, 136, 147

World War I, 8, 34

Wunsch, Carl, 157

Y

Yale University, 28, 55, 58

York River, 94

Younger Dryas

in Antarctica, 142–143

Bond cycles, 132–133

cause of, 107–109, 118, 151–152, 155

Dansgaard-Oeschger warming events, 101–102, 107, 109, 119–120, 121–122, 126, 131, 133, 134, 137, 138, 139, 141, 142–143, 148, 150–153, 177

duration of, 17, 115

in Europe, 18–19, 20, 25, 28, 103, 105, 143

global reach of, 138, 141–144, 155

Heinrich events, 107, 131, 132, 133, 134, 137, 141, 151–152

human impact of, 17–18, 118

ice core record, 118–120

modeling, 105, 148–149

in North America, 25, 28, 105

origin of name, 20

oxygen isotope ratios, 29, 54, 60, 115, 141

pollen record, 103, 105

rate of change, 29–30

sediment record, 18–19, 20, 29, 60, 103, 105, 136, 138, 139, 140–141, 161

temperature profile, 115, 158, 159

termination of, 109, 118

in tropical areas, 158, 159, 161

in West Asia, 17–18

Yucatan Peninsula, 171, 172

Z

Zapffe, Carl A., 66

Zimmerman, Herman, 112, 178

Zotikov, Igor, 43