Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces: Initial Observations and Insights: Interim Report
2013

Interim

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A letter dated December 21, 2011, to National Academy of Sciences President Dr. Ralph Cicerone from the Chief of Naval Operations, ADM Jonathan W. Greenert, U.S. Navy, requested that the National Research Council's (NRC's) Naval Studies Board (NSB) conduct a study to examine the issues surrounding capability surprise—both operationally and technically related—facing the U.S. naval services. Accordingly, in February 2012, the NRC, under the auspices of its NSB, established the Committee on Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces. The study's terms of reference, provided in Enclosure A of this interim report, were formulated by the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) in consultation with the NSB chair and director. The terms of reference charge the committee to produce two reports over a 15-month period. The present report is the first of these, an interim report issued, as requested, following the third full committee meeting.

The terms of reference direct that the committee in its two reports do the following: (1) Select a few potential capability surprises across the continuum from disruptive technologies, to intelligence inferred capability developments, through operational deployments and assess what U.S. Naval Forces are doing (and could do) about these surprises while mindful of future budgetary declines; (2) Review and assess the adequacy of current U.S. Naval Forces' policies, strategies, and operational and technical approaches for addressing these and other surprises; and (3) Recommend any changes, including budgetary and organizational changes, as well as identify any barriers and/or leadership issues that must be addressed for responding to or anticipating such surprises including developing some of our own surprises to mitigate against unanticipated surprises.

Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces: Initial Observations and Insights: Interim Report highlights issues brought to the committee's attention during its first three meetings and provides initial observations and insights in response to each of the three tasks above. It is very much an interim report that neither addresses in its entirety any one element of the terms of reference nor reaches final conclusions on any aspect of capability surprise for naval forces. The committee will continue its study during the coming months and expects to complete by early summer 2013 its final report, which will address all of the elements in the study's terms of reference and explore many potential issues of capability surprise for U.S. naval forces not covered in this interim report.

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43 pages · 8.5 x 11 ·
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-26911-3
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17226/18270

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National Research Council. 2013. Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces: Initial Observations and Insights: Interim Report. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

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Front Matter i-vii
Introduction 1-4
Examples of Surprise 5-11
Development and Implementation 12-21
Enclosure A: Terms of Reference 22-22
Enclosure B: Summary of Committee Meetings and Site Visit 23-24
Enclosure C: Biographies of Committee Members 25-34
Enclosure D: Acronyms and Abbreviations 35-36

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BMD	ballistic missile defense

CNAS	Center for a New American Security
CNO	Chief of Naval Operations

DARPA	Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
DFARS	Defense Federal Acquisition Regulations System
DSB	Defense Science Board

FARS	Federal Acquisition Regulations System
FFC	Fleet Forces Command

GPS	Global Positioning System

ISR	intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance

JCIDS	Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System
JIATF-S	Joint Interagency Task Force-South
JROC	Joint Requirements Oversight Council

MCCDC	Marine Corps Combat Development Command
MIT	Massachusetts Institute of Technology

NIPF	National Intelligence Priorities Framework
NRAC	Naval Research Advisory Committee
NRC	National Research Council
NRL	Naval Research Laboratory
NSB	Naval Studies Board

ONI	Office of Naval Intelligence
ONR	Office of Naval Research
ONR-G	Office of Naval Research-Global
OPNAV	Office of the Chief of Naval Operations
OSD	Office of the Secretary of Defense

QRC	quick reaction capability

R&D	research and development

SM	Standard Missile
SSBN	ballistic missile submarine
SSN	nuclear-powered submarine

TRL	technology readiness level
TTPs	tactics, techniques, and procedures

UUV	unmanned undersea vehicle

Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces: Initial Observations and Insights: Interim Report (2013)

Chapter: Enclosure D: Acronyms and Abbreviations

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Capability Surprise for U.S. Naval Forces: Initial Observations and Insights: Interim Report (2013)

Chapter: Enclosure D: Acronyms and Abbreviations