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Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop (2016)

Chapter: Appendix C: Workshop Agenda

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Previous Chapter: Appendix B: Planning Committee Biographical Sketches

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Suggested Citation: "Appendix C: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Frontiers in Decadal Climate Variability: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/23552.

Appendix C
Workshop Agenda

FRONTIERS IN DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY: A WORKSHOP
September 3-4, 2015
Jonsson Conference Center Carriage House
314 Quisset Ave., Woods Hole, MA

7:30 A. M.	Shuttle pick up at Inn on the Square/Holiday Inn
8:00 A. M.	Breakfast at Jonsson Center
8:30 A. M.	Welcome, Introduction, Purpose of Workshop	Jerry Meehl
9:00 A. M.	Communication and framing of panel talks	Susan Hassol and Brian Kahn

PANEL 1: PACIFIC DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY

Moderator: Jerry Meehl

9:10 A. M.	Presentations
	Tropical Pacific decadal variability and the global warming hiatus	Shang-Ping Xie, Scripps
	Comparing simulated and observed and decadal trends	John Fyfe, CCCma
	Tropical Pacific decadal variability: Oceanic processes and the possible important role of climate noise	Antonietta Capotondi, CIRES/NOAA
	Pacific decadal climate variability: Phenomenon, evidence, and impacts	Yochanan Kushnir, LDEO
10:10 A. M.	Discussion
10:40 A. M.	Break

PANEL 2: ATLANTIC DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY

Moderator: Robert Hallberg

11:00 A. M.	Presentations
	Robust and non-robust aspects of AMOC intrinsic variability and mechanisms in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)	Gokhan Danabasoglu, NCAR
	Understanding tropical Atlantic decadal variability: The role of tropical Pacific versus subpolar Atlantic	Mingfang Ting, LDEO
	The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on climate through its influence on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation	Tom Delworth, GFDL
	Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methods	Michael Mann, Penn State
12:00 P. M.	Discussion
12:30 P. M.	Lunch

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PANEL 3: ASPECTS OF DECADAL VARIABILITY—PALEO EVIDENCE AND EXTERNAL FORCING

Moderator: David Halpern

1:30 P. M.	Presentations
	Decadal variability in Pacific trade winds inferred from coral Mn/Ca: Implications for the rate of global warming	Diane Thompson, Boston University
	Paleo-constraints on decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific	Kim Cobb, Georgia Tech
	Radiative forcing contributions to changes in recent rates of global warming	Susan Solomon, MIT
	How long could the current hiatus in global warming last?	Tom Knutson, GFDL
2:30 P. M.	Discussion
3:00 P. M.	Break

PANEL 4: OBSERVATIONS, OCEAN MIXING, AND DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY

Moderator: Kevin Arrigo

3:30 P. M.	Presentations
	Impact of data coverage and quality control on global surface temperature trends: Part 1—Overview and sea surface temperature aspects	Huai-min Zhang, NOAA
	Impact of data coverage and quality control on global surface temperature trends: Part 2—Land surface air temperature aspects	Matthew Menne, NOAA
	Pacific temporarily hid heat below surface	Veronica Nieves, JPL
	Understanding decadal climate variability using formal model-data synthesis	Patrick Heimbach, UT Austin
4:30 P. M.	Discussion
5:00 P. M.	Adjourn
5:30 P. M.	Working dinner/Lobster boil

8:00 A. M.	Breakfast
8:30 A. M.	Convene and plan for day	Jerry Meehl

PANEL 5: AIR-SEA INTERACTION AND OCEAN PROCESSES CONTRIBUTING TO DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY

Moderator: Shuyi Chen

8:30 A. M.	Presentations
	Consequences of uncertainty in air-sea exchange	Baylor Fox-Kemper, Brown
	The ocean’s role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing	John Marshall, MIT
	Arctic changes and mid-latitude weather linkages in the coming decades	James Overland, PMEL
	Indian Ocean variability and its impact on regional climate	Caroline Ummenhofer, WHOI
9:30 A. M.	Discussion
10:00 A. M.	Break

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BREAKOUT GROUPS

10:30 A. M.

Instruction for breakouts

Jerry Meehl

Observations of decadal climate variability
1. Co-leads: Patrick Heimbach, Caroline Ummenhofer
2. Tasks:
  1. Identify observational gaps
  2. Consider the utility and accuracy of various observations for tracking long-term climate variability, anticipating the onset and end of hiatus regimes, and closing the long-term heat budget
Modeling decadal climate variability
1. Co-leads: Gokhan Danabagoslu, Shang-Ping Xie
2. Tasks:
  1. Identify modeling gaps
  2. Consider the utility of hiatus regimes as a metric for evaluating performance of long-term climate models

12:00 P. M.	Lunch
1:00 P. M.	Breakout groups report back	Jerry Meehl
	15 minutes per breakout group; 45 minutes discussion

PANEL 6: SYNTHESIS AND COMMUNICATING DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY

Moderator: Lisa Goddard

2:15 P. M.	Key workshop messages	Lisa Goddard and David Halpern
2:30 P. M.	Communicating climate science
	*Susan Hassol, Climate Communication* *Brian Kahn, Climate Central*
	Discussion

3:30 P. M.	Discussion of products	Jerry Meehl, Amanda Purcell, and committee members
4:00 P. M.	Workshop adjourns	Jerry Meehl, Amanda Purcell, and committee members