Specific Science Elements

Science priorities:

• Climate and Hydrologic Systems
• Biogeochemical Dynamics
• Ecological Systems and Dynamics
• Earth System History
• Human Interactions
• Solid Earth Processes
• Solar Influences

Research elements:

• Atmospheric Composition
• Climate Variability and Change
• Water Cycle
• Land-Use/Land-Cover Change
• Carbon Cycle
• Ecosystems
• Human Contributions and Responses to Environmental Change

Objective 1.1: Earth System Understanding

• Climate Change and Global Change
• Integration of the Biological Sciences
• Integration of the Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences
• Multiple Space and Time Scales, Natural Variability, and Extremes
• Complexity, Thresholds, and Tipping Points

Objective 1.2: Science for Adaptation and Mitigation

• Understanding Vulnerability to Global Change
• Science to Support Regional and Sectoral Responses
• Science to Support Global-Scale Responses
• Tools and Approaches for Iterative Risk Management

Predicting

Predictions, using quantitative models of the Earth system to identify and simulate global environmental processes and trends, and the regional implications of such processes and trends. (§104(c)(4))

Integrating priority 3: Develop integrated conceptual and predictive Earth system models.

Goal 3: Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s climate and related systems may change in the future.

Objective 1.4: Integrated Modeling

• Model Complexity
• Model Interpretation, Conceptual Modeling, and Hierarchies of Model Complexity
• Integrated Modeling of Complex Systems Dynamics and Decision Support

Monitoring

Global measurements, establishing worldwide observations necessary to understand the physical, chemical, and biological processes responsible for changes in the Earth system on all relevant spatial and time scales. (§104(c)(1))

Documentation of global change, including the development of mechanisms for recording changes that will actually occur in the Earth system over the coming decades. (§104(c)(2))

Integrating priority 1: Establish an integrated, comprehensive long-term program of documenting the Earth system on a global scale through

• Observational programs
• Data management systems

Approach 2: Observations. Enhance observations and data management systems to generate a comprehensive set of variables needed for climate-related research

Objective 13: Integrated Observations

• Sustaining and Integrating Earth System Observational Capacity
• Integrating Socioeconomic and Ecological Measurements
• Integrating Observations and Modeling

Objective 1.5: Information Management and Sharing

• Integrated and Centralized Data Access
• Integrated Knowledge for Stakeholders and Decision Makers

Assessing

Integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings (§106(1))

Analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity (§106(2))

Analyzes current trends in global change, both human induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. (§106(3))

Goal 5: Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change.

Goal 3: Conduct Sustained Assessments. Build sustained assessment capacity that improves the Nation’s ability to understand, anticipate, and respond to global change impacts and vulnerabilities.

Objective 3.1: Scientific Integration

Objective 3.2: Ongoing Capacity

Objective 3.3: Inform Responses

Objective 3.4: Evaluate Progress

Informing
Decisions

Combine and interpret data from various sources to produce information readily usable by policymakers attempting to formulate effective strategies for preventing, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of global change. (§104(d)(3))

Approach 3: Decision Support. Develop improved science-based resources to aid decision making

Goal 2: Inform Decisions. Provide the scientific basis to inform and enable timely decisions on adaptation and mitigation.

Objective 2.1: Inform Adaptation Decisions

Objective 2.2: Inform Mitigation Decisions

Objective 23: Enhance Global Change Information