Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System: Proceedings of a Workshop (2017)
Chapter: Front Matter
Antarctic Sea Ice Variability
in the Southern
Ocean-Climate System
Proceedings of a Workshop
Alison Macalady and Katie Thomas, Rapporteurs
Polar Research Board
Ocean Studies Board
Division on Earth and Life Studies
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, DC
www.nap.edu
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This project was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Award No. NNX15AP72G) and the National Science Foundation (Award No. PLR-1540067). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-45600-5
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-45600-2
Digital Object Identifier: 10.17226/24696
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Copyright 2017 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
Cover credit: Edge of an ice shelf in Adelaide Island, off the Antarctic Peninsula. NASA/Maria-Jose Vinas.
Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Antarctic Sea Ice Variability in the Southern Ocean-Climate System. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/24696.
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PLANNING COMMITTEE ON ANTARCTIC SEA ICE VARIABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN CLIMATE-OCEAN SYSTEM
JULIENNE STROEVE (Chair), University of Colorado Boulder
DAVID HOLLAND, New York University, New York
MARIKA HOLLAND, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
TED MAKSYM, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
MARILYN RAPHAEL, University of California, Los Angeles
SUSAN SOLOMON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
XIAOJUN YUAN, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff
KATIE THOMAS, Senior Program Officer, Polar Research Board
ALISON MACALADY, Program Officer, Polar Research Board (until August 2016)
AMANDA STAUDT, Director, Polar Research Board
YASMIN ROMITTI, Research Associate, Polar Research Board
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate, Polar Research Board
MICHAEL HUDSON, Senior Program Assistant, Polar Research Board
SHELLY FREELAND, Financial Associate, Polar Research Board
POLAR RESEARCH BOARD
JULIE BRIGHAM-GRETTE (Chair), University of Massachusetts Amherst
WALEED ABDALATI, University of Colorado Boulder
SRIDHAR ANANDAKRISHNAN, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park
KATEY WALTER ANTHONY, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
BETSY BAKER, Vermont Law School, South Royalton
JOHN CASSANO, University of Colorado Boulder
SARA B. DAS, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
JENNIFER A. FRANCIS, Rutgers University, Marion, Massachusetts
EILEEN E. HOFMANN, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia
BRENDAN KELLY, Monterey Bay Aquarium, Monterey, California
JOHN KOVAC, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
NANCY G. MAYNARD, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida
GEORGE B. NEWTON, U.S. Arctic Research Commission, Marstons Mills, Massachusetts
RAFE POMERANCE, Independent Consultant, Washington, District of Colombia
GAIUS (GUS) R. SHAVER, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
Ex-Officio
LARRY D. HINZMAN, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
DENEB KARENTZ, University of San Francisco, San Francisco, California
TERRY WILSON, The Ohio State University, Columbus
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff
AMANDA STAUDT, Board Director
LAURIE GELLER, Program Director
KATIE THOMAS, Senior Program Officer
LAUREN EVERETT, Program Officer
ALISON MACALADY, Program Officer (until August 2016)
AMANDA PURCELL, Associate Program Officer
YASMIN ROMITTI, Research Associate
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate
MICHAEL HUDSON, Senior Program Assistant
SHELLY FREELAND, Financial Associate
OCEAN STUDIES BOARD
LARRY A. MAYER (Chair), University of New Hampshire, Durham
E. VIRGINIA ARMBRUST, University of Washington, Seattle
KEVIN R. ARRIGO, Stanford University, Stanford, California
CLAUDIA BENITEZ-NELSON, University of South Carolina, Columbia
RITA R. COLWELL, University of Maryland, College Park
SARAH W. COOKSEY, State of Delaware, Dover
JAMES A. ESTES, University of California, Santa Cruz
DAVID HALPERN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California
PATRICK HEIMBACH, The University of Texas at Austin
SUSAN E. HUMPHRIS, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
BONNIE J. MCCAY, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey
S. BRADLEY MORAN, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
STEVEN A. MURAWSKI, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg
JOHN A. ORCUTT, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
H. TUBA ÖZKAN-HALLER, Oregon State University, Corvallis
MARTIN D. SMITH, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
MARGARET SPRING, Monterey Bay Aquarium, Monterey, California
DOUGLAS WARTZOK, Florida International University, Miami
LISA D. WHITE, University of California, Berkeley, and San Francisco State University
ROBERT S. WINOKUR, Michigan Tech Research Institute, Silver Spring, Maryland
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff
SUSAN ROBERTS, Director
STACEE KARRAS, Program Officer
EMILY TWIGG, Associate Program Officer
PAMELA LEWIS, Administrative Coordinator
ALLIE PHILLIPS, Program Assistant
SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate
JAMES HEISS, Postdoctoral Fellow
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Acknowledgments
This Proceedings of a Workshop has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published Proceedings of a Workshop as sound as possible and to ensure that the Proceedings of a Workshop meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this Proceedings of a Workshop:
Ian Allison, University of Tasmania, Australia
Elizabeth Hunke, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Santa Fe, NM
Claire Parkinson, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD
Marilyn Raphael, University of California, Los Angeles
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they did not see the final draft of the Proceedings of a Workshop before its release. The review of this Proceedings of a Workshop was overseen by William Berry Lyons, The Ohio State University, who was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this Proceedings of a Workshop was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this Proceedings of a Workshop rests entirely with the rapporteurs and the institution.
The planning committee would like to thank the staff at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder for graciously hosting the workshop. Special thanks are also due to those who gave plenary presentations, were note-takers, or were rapporteurs for the breakout groups.
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Contents
Observational Record of Antarctic Sea Ice Variability
Regional and Seasonal Variability in Antarctic Sea Ice
Using Climate Models to Interpret and Extend the Observational Record
Reconciling Models and Observations
Separating Internal Variability from Anthropogenic Forcing
Projecting Future Antarctic Sea Ice Conditions
Proposed Mechanisms Driving Observed Variability in Antarctic Sea Ice
Variability in Regional and Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation and Surface Wind Patterns
Influence of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion
Connections Between Tropical Ocean Variability and Antarctic Sea Ice
Mechanisms in the Context of Regional Variability
Future Needs and Opportunities
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