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Introduction

As defined in the report Next Generation Earth Systems Science at the National Science Foundation, Earth systems science “aims to discover and integrate knowledge on the structure, nature, and scales of interactions among natural (e.g., physical, chemical, and biological) and social (e.g., cultural, socioeconomic, and geopolitical) processes” (NASEM 2022). Following the release of the report, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (the National Academies) hosted a series of workshops to further explore how an Earth systems science approach may be used to address various aspects of climate change. On March 18–19, 2024, the National Academies hosted the Workshop on Climate Change and Human Migration: An Earth Systems Science Perspective as part of the series.

The workshop, sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF), sought to explore climate change impacts and the consequent influence on human migration. Climate-related migration can be temporary or permanent, can involve internal displacement within countries or crossing international borders, and can involve a broad array of other direct and indirect drivers. To consider these complex issues, the workshop speakers discussed the data, methods, and research strategies relevant to understanding climate-related migration.

Workshop Planning Committee Chair Amir AghaKouchak (University of California, Irvine) welcomed participants and provided context on the workshop. The workshop is the third workshop in a series of follow-on activities stemming from the Next Generation Earth Systems Science at the National Science Foundation report, with previous events covering

tipping points, cascading impacts, and interacting risks in the Earth system (NASEM 2024b) and climate intervention in an Earth systems science framework (NASEM 2024a).

Climate change and migration are two interconnected phenomena that are reshaping societies and ecosystems around the globe. The impacts of climate change are forcing communities to confront the reality of displacement and relocation, AghaKouchak said, adding that this is not merely something to consider for the future but a reality that millions of people are facing today. The workshop featured five sessions and a series of keynote talks focused on climate change and migration across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales, including migration in response to individual events such as hurricanes and droughts, as well as in response to more gradual changes, such as rising sea levels. The workshop brought together people with a diverse set of perspectives and expertise to strengthen the understanding of the complex dynamics involved in climate-related migration at local, regional, and global scales. Participants exchanged knowledge, examples, and experiences; discussed key gaps in existing models, tools, and data used by physical and social scientists working on climate and migration; and highlighted opportunities for advancing the field. This Proceedings of a Workshop summarizes the issues discussed and highlights observations and suggestions made during the workshop. It is intended to provide a factual summary of the workshop discussions based on recordings and slides and does not reflect consensus views of the workshop participants or the National Academies.

NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION PROGRAMS AND PERSPECTIVES

Alexandra Isern (NSF) framed the workshop with remarks on how the NSF is approaching issues at the intersection of climate change and human migration, and Laura Lautz (NSF) highlighted additional NSF programs focused on integrating social and environmental systems.

Isern said that the workshop discussions can help NSF to map the future research investments needed to advance understanding and predictive capabilities to develop more effective policies related to human migration. She described how the Next Generation Earth Systems Science at the National Science Foundation report (NASEM 2022) has helped NSF frame a series of funding activities focused on research, translation, and innovation that are closely linked to NSF’s crosscutting agency theme of building a resilient planet. NSF is making significant investments in climate change research and clean energy technologies while creating an integrated approach to engage scientists and engineers across disciplines with the goal of advancing knowledge, empowering communities, and generating

innovative technological solutions that address societal needs and create resilient communities.

NSF’s Geoscience Directorate has also released several Dear Colleague Letters¹ to focus community attention on priority areas that NSF seeks to advance. These topics include understanding and predicting the compounding effects of hazards and extreme weather and climate events; research at the intersection of climate change and human health; development of new technologies to advance Earth systems science research; and science governance and consequences of carbon dioxide removal and solar radiation modification strategies. Another area is the discovery, characterization, extraction, and separation of critical minerals that are needed in many clean energy technologies, which will be important in creating a more resilient society, Isern noted.

Additions to NSF’s investments in climate resiliency were also announced through the Directorate for Technology Innovation and Partnerships Regional Innovation Engine Program, Isern said. Of the 10 new Engines awarded, four are closely related to changing environmental systems. These include the Colorado-Wyoming Climate Resilience Engine,² the Great Lakes Water Innovation Engine,³ the Southwest Sustainability Innovation Engine,⁴ and the Advanced Agriculture Technology Engine,⁵ which is in North Dakota.

To recognize the importance of Earth systems science in facilitating a holistic approach to studying the planet, NSF also established a new division in the Geosciences Directorate called the Division of Research Innovations, Synergies, and Education (RISE).⁶ This division’s goal is to foster transdisciplinary collaborations that engage the broader geoscience community, with a focus on Earth systems–level research. It currently has five key incubators: geoscience education and diversity, cyber infrastructure, geoscience innovation, global climate challenges, and synergistic activities within and external to NSF. These incubators are helping the agency build partnerships with traditional partners as well as with philanthropies, industry, and others, Isern said, adding that RISE will help to foster connections within the geoscience community to drive transformative discoveries,

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¹ See https://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2024/nsf24022/nsf24022.jsp (accessed June 14, 2024).

² See https://new.nsf.gov/funding/initiatives/regional-innovation-engines/portfolio/colorado-wyoming-climate-resilience-engine (accessed June 14, 2024).

³ See https://new.nsf.gov/funding/initiatives/regional-innovation-engines/portfolio/great-lakes-water-innovation-engine (accessed June 14, 2024).

⁴ See https://new.nsf.gov/funding/initiatives/regional-innovation-engines/portfolio/southwest-sustainability-innovation-engine (accessed June 14, 2024).

⁵ See https://new.nsf.gov/funding/initiatives/regional-innovation-engines/portfolio/north-dakota-advanced-agriculture-technology (accessed June 14, 2024).

⁶ See https://www.nsf.gov/div/index.jsp?div=RISE (accessed June 24, 2024).

innovations in workforce development, and end-use–inspired solutions to address urgent Earth systems challenges.

Isern commented that policies focusing on climate resilience, sustainable development, and social justice are essential for mitigating the impacts of migration and supporting affected communities, but developing sound policies involves identifying research gaps and advancing predictive capabilities to better understand the impacts of changing environments on human migration. “We are seeing clear evidence that climate change is exacerbating environmental stressors such as water scarcity, extreme weather events; compounding environmental hazards, sea-level rise; and it is also affecting disease vectors,” she said. “These changes are particularly impacting those that are least able to adapt, creating significant disparities in climate equity with vulnerable populations such as low-income communities and Indigenous peoples being disproportionately affected by climate-related displacement.” She expressed her hope that the workshop could help inform investments that benefit society with the basic research needed to advance goals such as creating early warning systems, improving disaster preparedness, and developing resilient infrastructure to enhance local adaptive capacity.

Lautz discussed Confronting Hazards, Impacts, and Risks for a Resilient Planet (CHIRRP), a program led by NSF’s Geosciences Directorate that addresses the agency’s priority of building a resilient planet and also reflects the increasing emphasis on use-inspired or transdisciplinary research focused on solutions and major societal grand challenges.⁷ CHIRRP is informed, in part, by the Next Generation Earth Systems Science at the National Science Foundation report, Lautz said, with a goal of advancing Earth systems science and drawing connections between the geosciences and social, behavioral, economic, and biological sciences, as well as engineering. The program supports community-driven research partnerships focused on Earth system hazards with the ultimate goal of developing practical solutions for communities to help reduce risk and increase social and ecological resilience.

Lautz said that the program is looking for projects that integrate the physical and social dimensions of the Earth system, focusing on actionable solutions that help communities reduce risk and increase resilience and include equitable community partnerships. For the first year, CHIRRP is supporting planning grants, conference grants, research coordination networks, and mechanisms that can be used to help develop partnerships with communities where they do not already exist, provide training for more effective community engagement, or catalyze ideas.

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⁷ See https://new.nsf.gov/funding/opportunities/confronting-hazards-impacts-risks-resilient-planet (accessed June 24, 2024).

WORKSHOP THEMES

Several key themes emerged throughout the workshop presentations and discussions. Many speakers highlighted the complexity of human migration processes, encompassing various situations such as forced migration in response to a crisis that makes it necessary, migration in absence of crisis, and community versus individual relocations. Additionally, speakers stressed that migration is not always an individual choice but can also be a collective and context-dependent phenomenon, highlighting its multifaceted nature. Speakers also examined a variety of measurement and modeling complexities that lead to significant challenges in understanding climate-related migration, and pointed to critical data gaps and sources of uncertainty that can further complicate efforts to grasp how climate change and other complex factors, beyond climate or environmental, interact to drive migration dynamics.

Several workshop participants underscored the importance of holistic approaches that integrate diverse perspectives and address both data and knowledge gaps to enhance understanding of climate-induced migration and advance a research agenda in this area. Many participants also highlighted the importance of incorporating both global and local perspectives, along with an understanding of the impact of policies on migration. Speakers also explored opportunities to engage communities and incorporate local and Indigenous sources of knowledge in scientific models and approaches to understand historical and cultural drivers of or barriers to migration and consider issues on equity, ethics, and justice. Finally, several participants emphasized the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration between the social sciences and Earth science as well as more inclusive and diverse approaches to address this complex issue.

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