Chapter 1
Introduction
Extreme weather events (e.g., tropical cyclones, major winter storms, wildfires) pose substantial threats to life, property, and livelihoods in the United States and worldwide. Over the past several decades, major advances in forecasting capabilities have enabled the creation of more accurate, detailed, and nuanced risk information products. Despite these advances, communicating about extreme weather events with decision-makers and the public remains challenging but opportunities for continued innovation exist.
Decision-making related to extreme weather events often involves tradeoffs between different degrees and types of risks. In the context of tropical cyclones, for example, deciding whether or when to issue an evacuation order entails weighing the risks to lives posed by the event against the risks to livelihoods posed by the financial costs of evacuations or relocations. The inherent uncertainty in extreme events complicates the calculation of such tradeoffs. The tradeoffs may be obvious when the timing, location, and magnitude of impacts are known with high certainty, but this level of certainty is rarely, if ever, the case for extreme weather events. Rather, despite dramatic improvements in the ability to predict the nature, likelihood, and potential severity of weather impacts, uncertainty remains. In addition, although many hazards have features that create unique decision-making environments, the potential to apply lessons learned from one hazard context to another is considerable.
In early 2024, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (National Academies) convened an ad-hoc committee to plan a workshop on risk communication around tropical cyclones. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Commerce, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the National Science Foundation, this workshop occurred on February 5 and 6, 2024, with participants attending virtually or in person in Washington, D.C. The workshop goal was to identify opportunities and challenges to communicating about extreme tropical cyclones as well as lessons that can be drawn from community engagement and communication concerning other extreme events (see Box 1 for the full Statement of Task). Toward this goal, the committee designed the workshop to include
speakers who offer a wide range of perspectives from across decision-making and communication processes and to consider the information needs, capabilities, and motivations of different decision-makers and decision-making audiences for risk communication (e.g., government, industrial, public).
Over the course of the workshop, the committee heard from academic researchers in the social and bio-physical sciences, public policy, and other fields; public officials at the federal, state, and local levels; and representatives from the private sector. Their comments covered not only tropical cyclones but also other hazards such as hurricanes, flooding, earthquakes, and extreme heat. Discussants addressed various facets of risk communication, including the importance and difficulty of clearly communicating uncertainty to the general public; preparedness as a critical component of an effective response; and new or in-development risk communication products and technologies. They discussed localization of information across audiences and communities and the need for deeper understanding of how messages are created, distributed, and perceived. They also identified gaps in research and practice, such as a lack of real-time research opportunities and insufficient attention to the needs of specific populations, to inform future research agendas that are of demonstrated and critical interest to U.S. federal agencies, stakeholders, and decision-makers at all levels in extreme weather–prone regions of the United States and elsewhere.
The creation, continuation, and fortification of partnerships and the importance of collaborative work—particularly among decision-makers across jurisdictions, sectors, and population groups—emerged from the discussions as a common theme. The workshop served as a space for participants to not only discuss these important topics, but also make new connections or deepen previous collaborations. As Ann Bostrom (committee chair), Weyerhaeuser endowed Professor in Environmental Policy, University of Washington, noted in her closing remarks that the workshop itself provided connections on which to build.
ORGANIZATION OF THE WORKSHOP PROCEEDINGS
The two days of the workshop are described in these proceedings chronologically, with day 1 covered in Chapters 2, 3, and 4, a recap of the first day summarized in Chapter 5, and day 2 covered in Chapters 6, 7, and 8. Chapter 2 summarizes the first session, with panels on research and forecaster perspectives around risk communication pertaining to atypical tropical cyclones. The goal of this session was to gain an understanding of the unique challenges, opportunities for innovation, and lessons learned in communicating evolving tropical cyclone threats using lessons learned from the atypical tropical cyclones Henri (2021) and Hilary (2023). Chapter 3 summarizes sessions two and three, which are framed by a keynote speech on definitions and classifications and feature panels (session two) and report-outs from breakout discussions (session three) on lessons arising from multi-hazard events and other hazards that might be applied to the tropical cyclone context. Chapter 3 also contains a high-level summary of sessions one and two. Chapter 4
BOX 1-1
Statement of Task
An ad hoc committee will plan a workshop to bring together experts to explore challenges and learning opportunities around actionable and understandable risk communication with decision-makers for extreme weather events. In particular, the workshop may consider the information needs, capabilities, and motivations of different decision-making audiences for risk communication (government, industrial, public) in the service of protecting lives, property and livelihoods. Discussions will include issues of justice, equity and inclusion in risk communication and community engagement both with and for vulnerable and underserved communities.
Workshop discussion will consider the following topics:
- Explore the current understanding of effective communication practices and features to convey to decision-makers uncertainty/probabilistic information about risks associated with discrete, extant extreme weather events. Discussions may include barriers faced by decision-makers in implementing uncertainty/probabilistic information, benefits and challenges with existing Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS), and lessons learned in the light of recent events.
- Examine risk communication and decision-making challenges posed by extreme weather events that are unprecedented in nature or scale for the affected locations. Discuss what communication practices and features are most effective for addressing these challenges, which may include accounting for historical precedence, diverse populations, and the impacts of climate change on the nature, behavior and frequency of extreme weather events as well as the potential for compounding or cascading events.
- Explore opportunities for learning from synergies, successes and challenges across multiple hazards and decision-making contexts and applying them to the hurricane context. Discussions may include hazard or event types with different lead times, different motivations (or success criteria) among decision-makers, vulnerable communities or livelihood sectors with different characteristics, outcomes of communication that are considered both “successful” and “unsuccessful,” and factors and strategies that contribute to successful community engagement and co-production of risk-reduction strategies.
summarizes session four, which was designed to inform understanding of various risk communication needs and sources across scales (e.g., county, municipal, faith-based organizations, local emergency management) and communities, spanning the household, local, and state levels, and the challenges that arise across population segments with differing experiences. Chapter 4 also provides a high-level summary of sessions three and four. Chapter 5 summarizes day 1. Chapter 6 summarizes session five, which featured panels on public- and private-sector innovations and a demonstration of new messaging technologies. Session 5 aimed to (1) examine current and emerging methodologies for communicating risk/uncertainty
information in the public arena and (2) identify how new risk communication technologies and approaches are being evaluated for their effectiveness in communicating risk and motivating behavior in the public arena. Chapter 7 summarizes session six, which offered a keynote speech on the use of jargon, technical, and plain language and panels on communicating uncertainty and issues about access and functional needs in the context of risk communication. Session 6 aimed to highlight unmet needs in communities at risk from tropical cyclones and potential solutions to meet those needs in the context of communication. Chapter 7 concludes with a high-level summary of sessions five and six. Chapter 8 provides a workshop retrospective and final remarks. Appendixes A and B provide the workshop agenda and biographies of the planning committee members, respectively.
This proceedings summarizes workshop presentations and discussions and has been prepared by the workshop rapporteurs as a factual summary of what occurred at the workshop. The views contained in the Proceedings are those of individual workshop participants. The planning committee’s role was limited to planning and convening the workshop. The views contained in the proceedings are those of individual workshop participants and do not represent consensus views or recommendations of the National Academies or represent the views of all workshop participants, or the study committee.
