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Breakout Discussions: Planning for Future Challenges

Following the first two workshop sessions, participants were invited to delve deeper into the challenges grid operators and planners face during four concurrent themed breakout discussions. Representatives from each group summarized key issues and possible solutions that were raised during the discussions within each theme.

FUTURE GRID AS AN ECOSYSTEM: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

This breakout session was moderated by Deepak Divan, John E. Pippin Chair Professor, Georgia Research Alliance eminent scholar, and director of the Center for Distributed Energy, Georgia Institute of Technology. In the transition from a centralized grid model to a more distributed energy resource (DER)-rich grid, participants in this group suggested a need to articulate a “North Star” vision for what the optimal end result of that transition looks like. Doing so would help to identify the gaps that stand in the way of that vision and guide efforts to close those gaps, which would help not only North America but also the world. For this, participants emphasized the importance of a dynamic and forward-thinking approach, rather than simply reacting to the changes that are occurring. In addition, the group highlighted the shifting role of customers in the DER transition, noting that energy is no longer a one-sided market with the utility providing energy and the consumer purchasing it. Customers are increasingly willing to shoulder the financial costs of adopting DERs,

but participants stressed that their willingness to share data and energy will depend on the perceived benefits of doing so.

Technological changes combine with economic forces to dictate the speed and direction of shifts within the power system. For example, as the price of new technologies drops, DER adoption can increase rapidly. The group noted that technology moves “at the speed of commerce,” but regulation and standards often lag behind technological advances, and can sometimes hinder innovation. Therefore, economic forces, technological changes, and policy decisions are important elements to consider for informing scenario-based planning. However, the grid’s size, fragmentation, and complexity hinder efforts to understand, model, and simulate it at scale. The rapid pace of technology development (and obsolescence) complicates the task of anticipating what the landscape will look like in 5 years, and if planners work on longer timeframes, they are likely to miss the boat again as technology continues to advance. Participants noted that standards and regulations—if they can evolve quickly enough—can help to address some of the challenges of navigating across multiple vendors, proprietary IP, communication requirements, interconnection challenges, and cybersecurity issues.

Gaps in technological expertise in the energy workforce can pose another challenge; participants noted that expertise in the previous dominant technologies and systems will not necessarily be sufficient for operators to effectively integrate and operate newer technologies. This points to a need for professional development for the existing workforce as well as adjustments to the education pipeline. Participants suggested that there could be opportunities for high schools, community colleges, and undergraduate programs to attract more diverse populations to pursue STEM fields; for curricular changes that bring some more advanced concepts from the graduate level to undergraduate-level education; and for training the existing workforce to understand and adapt to emerging technologies. In addition, participants noted that improved interface design could allow operators to use certain tools without necessarily having full knowledge of how they work, which could help the workforce be more agile in adopting new technologies.

A normative directive or “North Star” for the field, if one could be developed, would give experts from multiple communities a vision to rally around and inform efforts to establish a unifying plan, across the technology, policy, energy, and economic sectors, for the transition to a DER-rich grid with multiple elements in front of and behind the meter. In addition, participants noted an opportunity to encourage greater knowledge sharing in the ecosystem, and suggested that demonstrating the potential value of DER integration to all participants in this ecosystem, from customers to bulk power system owners, may help to convince more

stakeholders to allow their data to be incorporated into planning for localized and whole-grid operations.

JUST, EQUITABLE, AND INCLUSIVE PLANNING PRACTICES FOR THE FUTURE ELECTRICITY SYSTEM

Focusing on energy equity is essential to ensuring that all communities can benefit from DERs and the clean energy transition, but current approaches are imperfect. Recognizing that energy justice is a new concept, participants in this breakout group suggested that more research is needed to identify, describe, and address energy disparities. For example, participants noted that definitions of equity commonly focus on historically disadvantaged racial and socioeconomic communities, while other groups, such as medically vulnerable people, may be overlooked but important to consider in the context of energy equity. This breakout session was moderated by Shay Banton, regulatory program engineer and energy justice policy advocate, Interstate Renewable Energy Council.

Participants examined how four principles of energy justice—recognitional, procedural, distributional, and restorative or reparative justice—play into DER integration planning. DER integration planning is a multistep process in which planners set objectives, measure impacts on vulnerable communities, forecast load growth, identify and select investment options, and review and revise the entire process to make improvements and identify gaps. Participants emphasized the importance of recognizing potential equity impacts at every step; listening to and validating the needs of all stakeholders; distributing resources equitably; and addressing past harms, such as the legacy of polluting facilities built in low-income and historically disadvantaged communities.

One challenge to equitable DER planning is the lack of transparency and standardization in the analysis and decision-making processes among utilities. Another challenge is the multiple jurisdictions that cover DERs, with utilities, regulators, and legislatures sometimes setting conflicting goals, making different recommendations, or creating confusing restrictions. Participants suggested that it would be beneficial to focus on knowledge sharing in both the DER planning process in general and in strategies for fostering meaningful community engagement to distribute tools and innovations more equitably, including internationally.

Externalities can pose both challenges and opportunities in the context of electricity system equity. For example, electrification of trucking fleets can improve air quality for communities near shipping hubs, creating impacts that may disproportionally benefit historically disadvantaged communities. On the other hand, low-income communities may find themselves left behind as affluent communities adopt rooftop solar

at a more rapid pace. To address disparities, participants stressed that it is imperative to foster trust and goodwill among diverse stakeholders within the energy ecosystem. For some communities, this may require overcoming barriers stemming from past injustices and harms or historical patterns of being overlooked or ignored. Participants noted that identifying these communities requires a fairly granular approach—for example, census tracts might not be granular enough. To build meaningful relationships with these communities, it is important to create cohesive and robust community engagement programs that provide mechanisms to ensure that their voices are heard and actually impact outcomes and decisions. In addition, participants noted that many communities face a constellation of problems that all touch on energy and require collaborative solutions.

Being able to participate in decision-making processes is key. Participants noted that the COVID-19 pandemic expanded access to some processes by opening the door to virtual interactions, but they said that some of that progress is now being reversed as more planners return to in-person meetings, which can create barriers to participation. Because virtual meetings also present barriers, participants suggested thinking outside the box to develop radically new ways to get feedback and input from community members, such as by leveraging Internet of Things devices to reach people when and where they are available, creating avenues for more people to more easily engage with the energy planning process.

Meaningful community engagement is crucial, but doing it right takes time. Given the urgency of the climate crisis and the many related problems that communities face, participants emphasized the need to move quickly on DER integration without leaving vulnerable communities behind. They suggested that new tools and standardized approaches could help to work toward both energy justice and the clean energy transition with appropriate expediency.

CYBER AND PHYSICAL SECURITY NEEDS FOR AN INCREASINGLY DISTRIBUTED ELECTRICITY SYSTEM

Complexity is the enemy of both security and reliability, but today’s grid is highly complex and only getting more so. There are established processes for assessing security risks, hazards, and vulnerabilities in multiple spaces and at multiple scales, but the challenge of DER integration—and the possibility of future disruptive technologies that may pose new risks and opportunities—raises new considerations. This session was moderated by Jeff Dagle, chief electrical engineer, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Participants discussed how the grid’s physical and

cyber security can be improved by focusing on simple, robust engineering and design solutions that lean heavily on standardization, situational awareness, clearly defined interfaces, and transparent workings that can be effectively modeled.

One model that could be helpful in creating a system that is more adaptable, participants suggested, is the stacking approach used in computer hardware and software development. In this model, different functions are segregated into different layers and the connections between each layer are carefully controlled and standardized, allowing developers to alter one layer without needing to reengineer the whole stack. A similar approach in the electrical power system could mean defining interfaces between elements of the system and designing to these standard interfaces when integrating new technologies or improvements in one component.

In terms of physical security, participants highlighted the importance of rugged components that will be up to the task of withstanding various stresses, including increasingly strong storms. They added that decentralized systems that avoid reliance on critical substations (which can amplify vulnerabilities) can also help to increase resilience. On the cyber side, participants suggested that DER manufacturers have an important and often underappreciated role to play in grid security because DERs essentially create “gateways” to the grid, making it critical to consider cyberattack scenarios, risk assessments, and vulnerability analyses in their design. While the North American Electric Reliability Corporation security standards rarely apply to grid-edge technologies like DERs, it is important to consider the aggregate impact and assess the potential risks of DERs. Looking forward, participants emphasized the importance of embedding cybersecurity into system engineering from the earliest stages. In addition to aligning with existing security standards, participants suggested that DER designers could potentially encode devices to operate a certain way under normal, emergency, or restorative conditions, such that anomalous operations would indicate hacking or malfunctioning and trigger a response.

New technologies can have many positive impacts on grid operations while also raising new vulnerabilities or risks. For example, participants considered how artificial intelligence (AI) could be used to augment human operators and systems to support multiple aspects of grid operations, such as data analysis, operational efficiency, intrusion detection, real-time modeling, and risk assessment. However, participants cautioned that AI systems should not be given free rein to control grid operations. They suggested that updated training and curricula are needed to create a flexible, interdisciplinary workforce that is equipped to understand and effectively use AI and other emerging technologies.

Last, participants noted that there needs to be a balance between transparency and security. In general, the best cybersecurity measures are

well-articulated and well-understood, and many aspects of grid operations can be shared transparently with the public to facilitate meaningful community engagement around grid planning. However, it is important to keep data and designs confidential where full disclosure could alert adversaries to weak spots that are vulnerable to attack.

MANAGING LOAD GROWTH ON AN INCREASINGLY COMPLEX ELECTRICITY SYSTEM

In many places, load growth is happening so rapidly that the grid, public policy, and traditional load-forecasting mechanisms cannot keep up. This creates urgent challenges because solutions often take years but the changes are happening now. Julieta Giráldez, director of integrated grid planning, Electric Power Engineers, and Debra Lew, executive director, Energy Systems Integration Group, moderated this session in which participants discussed some of the drivers of rapid load growth and opportunities to improve forecasting for an informed response.

There is a fundamental tension between the risk of being too conservative in forecasting loads and the risk of overbuilding the system. Participants said that assumptions about technology, policy, and customer adoption are all essential to informing forecasts and conducting scenario-based planning. They added that more data, especially granular data about distribution and use, would greatly help to improve forecasting accuracy, yet policies and programs do not currently prioritize the types of data needed for forecasting.

New transmission planning can meet some of the coming demand, but participants emphasized that better load management, demand response, and flexible interconnections will also be needed, especially given the challenges in predicting load growth and the dynamics of that load day to day. For example, increasing demands related to electric vehicle charging and electrification of heavy trucks require greater flexibility in interconnections. Energy prices, which are increasing in some places, also could have an impact on load growth. Extremely large loads, such as from data centers or hydrogen fuel plants, can be particularly difficult to predict and disruptive to the grid. Some of these large loads are flexible, like cryptocurrency data centers, while others are more constant. Another issue is that those planning to establish data centers or other facilities may “shop around” by requesting interconnects in more places than they actually intend to build, in an effort to find the cheapest solution. This complicates utilities’ ability to accurately forecast loads and plan accommodations, although reports of this phenomenon currently remain at the anecdotal level and have not been robustly studied. On the other hand, facilities that absolutely require consistent power for their operations, such as data centers, often install

their own backup generation and have the capability to provide significant grid services, a potential opportunity for new market participation models.

Participants stressed the importance of conducting and updating scenario-based planning frequently to reflect changing conditions. For example, the rapid adoption of heat pumps in an area can cause demand to soar during cold snaps to a degree not seen in previous winters when more people used gas furnaces; the challenge of meeting the demand is even more complicated if there is an outage and then power is restored, causing many heat pumps to turn on at once in their highest energy-consuming mode, a phenomenon known as “cold load pickup.” In such situations, it can be beneficial to have plans in place for options such as rationing or importing power, in addition to situational awareness for everyday load management. Participants pointed out that it is also important to have enough supply to meet demand, but supply calculations are measured with outdated models. Forecasting coupled with real-time situational awareness is needed to create energy adequacy; participants suggested that new, probabilistic models that seek to identify high-stress times are needed to predict energy shortfalls and their duration and inform planning.

Forecasting is vital to understand and plan for future loads, but participants also noted that forecasting can also influence decisions in ways that perpetuate or exacerbate disparities; for example, relying on past data showing that low-income and historically disadvantaged communities have lower adoption of DERs could lead to policy decisions that make it harder for these communities to adopt DERs in the future. This is one example of why it can be beneficial to be cognizant of areas where policy adjustments might be warranted to not only respond to the changes that are happening but help to build toward the future that is desired—the type of “North Star” vision mentioned by the breakout group on “Future Grid as an Ecosystem.” For this, participants said that there is a need to shift from a reactive to a proactive planning mindset; to establish consistent metrics and assumptions to enhance reliability and standardization; to understand jurisdictional issues as states and regions become increasingly involved in driving energy policy; and to cultivate a workforce that is appropriately trained to address all of these challenges.