Consensus Study Report

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This activity was supported by contracts between the National Academy of Sciences and the Bainum Family Foundation (#7608); Doris Duke Foundation (#20212490); Foundation for Child Development (#12-2024); Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (#75ACF121C00093); Russell Sage Foundation (#2104-31166); William T. Grant Foundation (#ODF-205451); National Academy of Sciences W. K. Kellogg Foundation Fund; National Academy of Sciences Cecil and Ida Green Fund; National Academy of Sciences Independent Fund; National Academy of Engineering Independent Fund; and National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Presidents’ Circle Fund. Support for the work of the Board on Children, Youth, and Families is provided by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (#79846). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2026. Pathways to Reduce Child Poverty: Impacts of Federal Tax Credits. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/29163.

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COMMITTEE ON FEDERAL POLICY IMPACTS ON CHILD POVERTY

V. JOSEPH HOTZ (Chair), University of Chicago

DOLORES ACEVEDO-GARCIA, Boston University

MARIANNE BITLER, University of California, Davis

MARIA CANCIAN, Georgetown University

INDIVAR DUTTA-GUPTA, Blue Lotus Strategies

LISA GENNETIAN, Duke University

BRADLEY HARDY, Georgetown University

HARRY HOLZER, Georgetown University

KATHERINE MICHELMORE, University of Michigan

ROBERT MOFFITT, John Hopkins University

ANGELA RACHIDI, American Enterprise Institute

MARJORIE RAYNEE SIMS, Ascend at the Aspen institute

JIM SULLIVAN, University of Notre Dame

CHRISTOPHER WIMER, Columbia University

MARCI YBARRA, University of Wisconsin, Madison

Study Staff

JENNIFER APPLETON GOOTMAN, Study Director

MAYA REDDI, Research Associate

EMMA MOORE, Senior Program Assistant

CHRISTOPHER D. MACKIE, Senior Program Officer

EMILY P. BACKES, Deputy Board Director

BOARD ON CHILDREN, YOUTH, AND FAMILIES

JONATHAN TODRES (Chair), Georgia State University College of Law

RICHARD F. CATALANO, JR., University of Washington School of Social Work

TAMMY CHANG, University of Michigan

DIMITRI A. CHRISTAKIS, Seattle Children’s Research Institute, University of Washington

ANDREA GONZALEZ, McMaster University

NANCY E. HILL, Harvard University

CHARLES HOMER, Economic Mobility Pathways

MARGARET KUKLINSKI, University of Washington

MICHAEL C. LU, UC Berkeley School of Public Health

STEPHANIE J. MONROE, Wrenwood Group

STEPHEN RUSSELL, The University of Texas at Austin

NISHA SACHDEV, Premnas Partners, Washington, DC

JANE WALDFOGEL, Columbia University School of Social Work

JOANNA L. WILLIAMS, Rutgers University

Staff

NATACHA BLAIN, Senior Board Director

EMILY P. BACKES, Deputy Board Director

COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS

KATHARINE G. ABRAHAM (Chair), University of Maryland, College Park

MICK P. COUPER, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan

DIANA FARRELL, JPMorgan Chase institute, Washington, D.C.

ROBERT M. GOERGE, Chapin Hall at the University of Chicago

ERICA GROSHEN, School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University

DANIEL E. HO, Stanford Law School and Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research

HILARY HOYNES, Goldman School of Public Policy and Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley

DANIEL KIFER, Department of Computer Science, The Pennsylvania State University

SHARON LOHR, School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Arizona State University, Emeritus

NELA RICHARDSON, ADP Research Institute

C. MATTHEW SNIPP, School of the Humanities and Sciences, Stanford University

ELIZABETH A. STUART, Department of Mental Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Staff

MELISSA CHIU, Director

BRIAN HARRIS-KOJETIN, Senior Scholar

CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Senior Scholar

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Reviewers

This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by MICHAEL HOUT, Department of Sociology, New York University, and GREG J. DUNCAN, School of Education, University of California, Irvine. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.

Acknowledgments

An ad hoc consensus study committee of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine was convened to assess the impacts of the 2021 federal Child Tax Credit and the Earned Income Tax Credit on the level of poverty for children.

The committee thanks the sponsors of this study for their support: the Bainum Family Foundation; the Doris Duke Foundation; the Foundation for Child Development; the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; the National Academy of Sciences W. K. Kellogg Foundation Fund; the National Academy of Sciences Cecil and Ida Green Fund; the National Academy of Sciences Independent Fund; the National Academy of Engineering Independent Fund; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Presidents’ Circle Fund; the Russell Sage Foundation; and the William T. Grant Foundation.

The bulk of the committee’s information gathering and synthesis was completed by April 2025, and the final edits and revisions to the report were incorporated by August 2025.

This report would not have been possible without the contributions of many people. Special thanks go to the members of the committee, who dedicated extensive time, expertise, knowledge, and energy to the preparing of the report. The committee also thanks the members of the staff of the National Academies for their significant contributions to the report: Jennifer Appleton Gootman, Maya Reddi, Emma Moore, and Emily Backes. Thank you also to National Academies Committee on National Statistics

staff Melissa Chiu, David Johnson, and Christopher Mackie for their support of the project.

The committee is also grateful to Javed Kahn, Faye Hillman, Elise Mialou, Pamella Atayi, and Lisa Alston for their administrative and financial assistance on this project. From the offices of Reports and Communication of the Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education (DBASSE), Kirsten Sampson Snyder and Douglas Sprunger shepherded the report through the review and the production process and assisted with its communication and dissemination. Megan Lowry, of the Office of News and Public Information, and Sandra McDermin and Julie Eubank, of the Office of Congressional and Government Affairs, were instrumental in the release and promotion of the report. The committee also thanks Clair Woolley of the National Academies Press and Bea Porter of DBASSE for their assistance with the production of the final report, and Connie Citro, National Academies staff, for her skillful insights and editing contributions.

We thank the Urban Institute team for providing Transfer Income Model version 3 microsimulation analyses: Laura Wheaton, Linda Gianarelli, and Margot Crandall-Hollick. We also thank Kevin Werner and Sophie Collyer for their significant contributions to data syntheses, review, and analysis.

In addition, the committee received research support from Diana Flores Peregrina, Duke University; Abigail Walters, Boston University; and Armando Vizcardo-Benites, Brandeis University.

Many individuals volunteered significant time and effort to address and educate the committee during our information-gathering sessions. We thank the following experts who participated in public sessions: Jessica Fulton, Pamela Herd, Steve Holt, Maggie Jones, Bruce Meyer, Donald Moynihan, Matthew Notowidigdo, Sharon Parrott, Kyle Pomerleau, Matthew Unrath, Matthew Weidinger, and James Ziliak. We also thank Ascend of the Aspen Institute for organizing and convening listening sessions. We are grateful for the willingness of parents and nonprofit professionals to share their perspectives and personal experiences in these listening sessions.

Throughout the project, Natacha Blain, director of the Board on Children, Youth, and Families, Carlotta Arthur, executive director, and Patti Simon and Amy Stephens, associate executive directors of the Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, provided valuable oversight and guidance.

V. Joseph Hotz, Chair
Committee on Federal Policy
Impacts on Child Poverty
September 2025

Contents

Acronyms

Summary

1 Introduction

CHARGE TO THE COMMITTEE

Interpreting the Charge

Study Methods

PREVIOUS RESEARCH ON THE IMPACT OF THE EITC AND CTC AND THEIR IMPACT ON CHILD POVERTY

IMPACTS OF THE EITC AND CTC ON OTHER DIMENSIONS OF CHILD DEVELOPMENT AND PARENTAL TIME

ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT

2 Key Provisions of the EITC and CTC Including Changes Under the TCJA and ARPA

THE EARNED INCOME TAX CREDIT

Overview

Design of the EITC

ARPA Reforms and EITC in 2021

THE CHILD TAX CREDIT

Overview

The CTC Under TCJA

ARPA Reforms to CTC Policy in 2021

STATE-LEVEL POLICIES

CONCLUSION

3 Measuring Child Poverty with the Supplemental Poverty Measure

SUPPLEMENTAL POVERTY MEASURE

Strengths of the SPM for Addressing the Statement of Task

Data and Measurement Limitations of the SPM

Broader Conceptual Issues with Measuring Poverty and Policies’ Effects on Poverty

CONCLUSION

4 Take-Up of the EITC and CTC Under ARPA in 2021

EXISTING EVIDENCE ON TAKE-UP OF THE EITC AND CTC

Data Sources Used to Measure Take-Up

Evidence on Take-Up from IRS Data

Evidence on Take-Up from Survey Data

Variation by Subgroups

EXPLANATIONS FOR INCOMPLETE TAKE-UP

Data from Linked CPS ASEC and IRS Tax Records

Noncompliance in Receipt of the EITC and CTC

Effects of CTC in 2021 Design Under ARPA and Implementation of Take-Up

Efforts to Increase Take-Up

CONCLUSION

5 Experiences of Families and Nonprofit Organizations with the EITC and CTC Policies in 2021

QUALITATIVE RESEARCH AND PRIOR EVIDENCE ON PARTICIPATION IN THE CTC

HOW DID PEOPLE FIND OUT ABOUT THE ARPA CTC IN 2021?

LISTENING SESSIONS

FINDINGS FROM THE LISTENING SESSIONS

Positive Impact of the CTC on Families’ Economic Well-Being

Awareness and Information Channels

Challenges with Filing and Misunderstandings

Regional and Access Disparities

WHAT ELSE DO FAMILIES NEED?

Increased Flexibility in Payment Options

Adjustments to Cost of Living

Better Outreach and Communication

Support for Rural Areas

Transparency Regarding Tax Implications

Fears About Taking Up the CTC in 2021

SUMMARY OF KEY INSIGHTS AND IMPLICATIONS

CONCLUSION

6 Other COVID-19 Pandemic-Period Policies and Programs and Their Potential Confounding Effects for Assessing Impacts of the EITC and CTC in 2021

OTHER MAJOR POLICIES IN PLACE IN 2021

Unemployment Insurance Expansions

Economic Impact Payments

SNAP Emergency Allotments and Benefits Increases

Pandemic EBT

Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit

Medicaid Continuous Enrollment and Affordable Care Act Premium Tax Credits

Emergency Rental Assistance Program

Other Policies and Program Expansions

THE INFLUENCE OF OTHER PANDEMIC POLICIES WHEN ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF THE ARPA EITC AND CTC EXPANSIONS IN 2021

CONCLUSION

7 Potential Labor Supply and Employment Effects of Tax Credits

A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF LABOR SUPPLY EFFECTS

LABOR SUPPLY EFFECTS OF THE EITC AND CTC

REVIEW OF EITC AND PRE-ARPA CTC LABOR SUPPLY LITERATURE

Employment Effects of the EITC

CTC Prior to ARPA

SUMMARY OF ARPA LABOR SUPPLY LITERATURE

LIMITATIONS OF EXISTING LITERATURE

ELASTICITIES USED TO ACCOUNT FOR AN EMPLOYMENT RESPONSE

CONCLUSION

8 Impact of the EITC and CTC on Child Poverty in 2021

METHODS

The EITC and CTC Policies in 2021

Baseline Results for Credit Impacts

Impacts After Adjusting for Employment Effects

Impacts When Other Pandemic Programs Are Excluded

Impacts on Deep and Near Poverty Rates

Impacts by Year of Credit Receipt

Impacts by Distribution of Estimated Fiscal Outlays

Impacts on Subgroups with Different Family Characteristics

Socioeconomic Characteristics

Residence

Race and Ethnicity, Nativity, and Citizenship

CONCLUSION

9 Alternative Policy Options

KEY FEATURES OF ALTERNATIVE POLICY OPTIONS

METHODS

ESTIMATED IMPACTS OF THE COMMITTEE’S POLICY OPTIONS

Poverty Reduction: Baseline Results

Employment Effects

Alternative Poverty Thresholds

Program Fiscal Outlays and the Distribution of Benefits

Subgroup Effects

ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS

CONCLUSION

10 Recommendations for Improvements in the Measurement and Evaluation of the Impacts of the EITC and CTC on Child Poverty

IMPROVING DATA SOURCES AND MEASUREMENT FOR EVALUATING AND MONITORING TAX CREDITS AND THEIR IMPACTS ON CHILD POVERTY

Enhance Quality of and Access to Linked Survey and Administrative Data for Analyzing Tax Credits, Income, and Poverty

Improve Poverty Measurement

Improve Data to Identify Key Subgroups in Existing Survey and Administrative Data

ENHANCING THE MONITORING AND EVALUATION OF THE IMPACT OF THE EITC AND CTC ON CHILD POVERTY AND WELL-BEING

Improve Understanding of Tax Credit Impact on Employment and Consequences for Child Poverty

ADDITIONAL STRATEGIES FOR EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF CHANGES TO THE EITC AND CTC ON CHILD POVERTY

OUTREACH EFFORTS TO IMPROVE RESEARCH ON INFORMATION ABOUT AND ACCESS TO THE TAX SYSTEM

Appendix A Committee and Staff Biosketches

Appendix B Key Terms

Appendix C Specification of the Official Poverty Measure and the Supplemental Poverty Measure

Appendix D Demographic Portrait of Child Poverty in the United States

Appendix E Evidence on Strengths and Limitations of IRS and Survey Data to Measure EITC and CTC Take-Up

Appendix F Synthesizing Elasticity Estimates from the EITC and CTC Literature

Appendix G Detailed Tables for Impacts of EITC and CTC Policies in 2021 on Child Poverty Rates for Subgroups

Appendix H Urban Institute TRIM3 Technical Specification: Using Microsimulation to Assess the Impact of the 2021 Child Tax Credit and Earned Income Tax Credit

Appendix I Additional Tables on Alternative Policy Options

References

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Boxes, Figures, and Tables

BOXES

1-1 Statement of Task

1-2 Actual and Potential Provisions of the 2021 CTC and EITC and Current Policy Whose Impacts on Child Poverty Are Evaluated

1-3 Past National Academies’ Work on Child Poverty

2-1 Chapter 2 Main Messages

3-1 Chapter 3 Main Messages

4-1 Chapter 4 Main Messages

5-1 Chapter 5 Main Messages

6-1 Chapter 6 Main Messages

7-1 Chapter 7 Main Messages

7-2 Effects of Cash Transfer Programs on Work Incentives

8-1 Chapter 8 Main Messages

8-2 Transfer Income Model Version 3 (TRIM3) Strengths and Limitations

9-1 Chapter 9 Main Messages

D-1 Child Poverty 2021

D-2 Composition of Children in Poverty

FIGURES

S-1 Benefit schedules for non-ARPA EITC (in tax year 2018) for single, head of household (HoH), and married filing jointly (MFJ) tax filers, along with presence and number of children

S-2 Benefit schedules for CTC under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) for head of household (HoH) and married filing jointly (MFJ) tax filers with one, two, or three children

S-3 Benefit schedules for CTC policy in 2021 showing TCJA CTC Only and ARPA CTC Expansion components for married filing jointly (MFJ) tax filers with one child (aged 6 to 17)

S-4 Estimated effects of EITC policy in 2021, TCJA CTC Only, EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only, and Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021, on child poverty rates, relative to no EITC or CTC

S-5 Estimated effects of EITC policy in 2021, TCJA CTC Only, EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only, and Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021, with employment effects incorporated

S-6 Estimated effects of EITC Policy in 2021, TCJA CTC Only, EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only, and Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021, on child poverty rates, relative to no EITC or CTC, assuming other major pandemic programs were not in place

S-7 Estimated impact of select policy options (POs) on child poverty (not including employment effects), percent change in child poverty rate, and number of children lifted out of poverty, relative to Policy Option (PO) 1

S-8 Estimated child poverty rates for the committee’s policy options (POs) with differing employment responses

2-1 Benefit schedules for non-ARPA EITC (in tax year 2018) for single, head of household (HoH), and married filing jointly (MFJ) tax filers, along with presence and number of children

2-2 Benefit schedules for childless EITC Policy in 2021, the childless non-ARPA EITC, and ARPA childless EITC Expansion for married filing jointly (MFJ) tax filers

2-3 Benefit schedule for TCJA CTC Only for head of household (HoH) tax filers with one child

2-4 Benefit schedules for CTC under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA CTC Only), head of household (HoH) and married filing jointly (MFJ) tax filers for one, two, and three children

2-5 Benefit schedules for CTC Policy in 2021 showing TCJA Only and ARPA Expansion components, head of household (HoH) filer with one child (aged 6 to 17)

2-6 Benefit schedules for CTC Policy in 2021 showing TCJA Only and ARPA Expansion components, married filing jointly (MFJ) filer with one child (aged 6 to 17)

2-7 Benefit schedules for CTC Policy in 2021 for head of household (HoH) filers with young (0 to 5 years) and older (6 to 17 years) children

2-8 Benefit schedules for CTC Policy in 2021 for married filing jointly (MFJ) filers with young (0 to 5 years) and older (6 to 17 years) children

8-1 Families estimated to receive the EITC Policy in 2021, TCJA CTC Only, ARPA CTC Expansion, and CTC Policy in 2021, by pre–tax credit poverty status

8-2 Average credit received for families estimated to receive the credits from the EITC Policy in 2021, TCJA CTC Only, ARPA CTC Expansion, and CTC Policy in 2021, by pre–tax credit poverty status

8-3 Estimated child poverty rate with no EITC or CTC, EITC Policy in 2021, TCJA CTC Only, EITC in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only, and Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021

8-4 Estimated effects of EITC Policy in 2021, TCJA CTC Only, EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only, and Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021, relative to no EITC or CTC

8-5 Census Bureau estimates of 2021 child poverty rate with no EITC or CTC, EITC Policy in 2021, TCJA CTC Only, EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only, and Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021

8-6 Census Bureau estimates of the effects of EITC policy in 2021, TCJA CTC Only, EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only, and Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021, relative to no EITC or CTC

8-7 Estimated effects of EITC Policy in 2021, TCJA CTC Only, EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only, and Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021, with employment effects incorporated

8-8 Estimated 2021 child poverty rate with no EITC or CTC, EITC Policy in 2021, TCJA CTC only, EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only, and Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021 on child poverty rates, assuming other major pandemic programs were not in place

8-9 Estimated effects of EITC Policy in 2021, TCJA CTC Only, EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only, and Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021, on child poverty rates, relative to no EITC or CTC, assuming other major pandemic programs were not in place

8-10 Estimated 2021 deep child poverty rates and near child poverty rates with no EITC or CTC, EITC Policy in 2021, TCJA CTC Only, EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only, and Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021

8-11 Estimated effects of EITC Policy in 2021, TCJA CTC Only, EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only, and Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021 on deep child poverty rates and near child poverty rates, relative to no EITC or CTC

8-12 Estimated child poverty rate with no EITC or CTC, EITC Policy in 2021, TCJA CTC Only, EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only, and Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021, by year of credit accrual versus year of receipt

8-13 Estimated effects of EITC Policy in 2021, TCJA CTC Only, EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only, and Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021, on child poverty rates, by year of credit accrual versus year of credit receipt, relative to no EITC or CTC

8-14 Estimated fiscal benefit outlays of EITC Policy in 2021, TCJA CTC Only, EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only, and combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021, from tax credit introduction—total estimated outlays

8-15 Estimated fiscal benefit outlays of EITC Policy in 2021, TCJA CTC Only, EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only, and Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021 from tax credit introduction, by pre–tax credit poverty stratum—percent of total by poverty level

9-1 Comparisons of CTC schedules for focal policy options (POs) with current policy (PO 1) and with Modified CTC Policy in 2021 for head of household (HoH) tax filers with two children

9-2 EITC schedules for non-ARPA EITC + TCJA CTC policy (i.e., current policy), plus 8 percentage point increase in benefits for head of household (HoH) tax filers

9-3 Estimated child poverty rates for the committee’s policy options (POs)

9-4 Estimated child poverty rates for select policy options (POs) with and without 8 percentage point EITC increase

9-5 Estimated child poverty rates for the committee’s policy options (POs) with differing employment responses

9-6 Estimated child poverty rates for families in deep poverty, poverty, and near poverty for the non-ARPA EITC + TCJA CTC policy and all committee-generated policy options (POs)

9-7 Distribution of child poverty by income categories for the non-ARPA EITC + TCJA CTC policy and committee’s policy options (POs)

9-8 Distribution of estimated CTC fiscal outlays and share of children by SPM-based income categories for non-ARPA EITC + TCJA CTC policy and the committee’s policy options (POs)

D-1 Child poverty rate (<100% of threshold) and poverty rate gap (percentage points), by family composition, 2018 and 2021

D-2 Child poverty rate (<100% of threshold) and poverty rate gap (percentage points), by employment status of adults, 2018 and 2021

D-3 Child poverty rate (<100% of threshold) and poverty rate gap (percentage points), by race/ethnicity, 2018 and 2021

D-4 Child poverty rate (<100% of threshold) and poverty rate gap (percentage points), by citizenship/immigration status, 2018 and 2021

D-5 Number of children in poverty (<100% of threshold) by family composition, 2018 and 2021

D-6 Share of children in poverty (<100% of threshold) by family composition, 2018 and 2021

D-7 Number of children in poverty (<100% of threshold) by employment status of adults, 2018 and 2021

D-8 Share of children in poverty (<100% of threshold) by employment status of adults, 2018 and 2021

D-9 Number of children in poverty (<100% of threshold) by race/ethnicity, 2018 and 2021

D-10 Share of children in poverty (<100% of threshold) by race/ethnicity, 2018 and 2021

D-11 Number of children in poverty (<100% of threshold) by citizenship/immigration status, 2018 and 2021

D-12 Share of children in poverty (<100% of threshold) by citizenship/immigration status, 2018 and 2021

F-1 Employment elasticities from the EITC and CTC literatures and their 95% confidence intervals, 25th, 50th (median), 75th percentiles distribution of estimates unweighted

F-2 Employment elasticities from the EITC and CTC literatures and their 95% conference intervals, 25th, 50th (median), 75th percentiles of distribution of estimates weighted by standard error of estimated elasticity (elas); fully defined in Appendix F

F-3 Employment elasticities and their 95% conference intervals, 25th, 50th (median), 75th percentiles of distribution of estimates, weighted by 1/CV = elas/se(elas)

H-1 Number of people employed in each month of 2021, TRIM3-CPS data versus BLS data

H-2 Number of people unemployed in each month of 2021, TRIM3CPS data versus BLS data

TABLES

2-1 Benefits for EITC and CTC in TY 2018 Under TCJA and Permanent Tax Law EITC and CTC Policies in 2021 Under ARPA for TY 2021 by Different Types of Households, Number of Children, and Annual Income

2-2 EITC and CTC Numbers of Returns and Credit Amounts for Tax Years 2018 and 2021

6-1 Key Characteristics of Major COVID-19 Pandemic-Related Policies and Programs

7-1 Substitution and Income Elasticities Used to Account for Employment Effects

8-1 Estimated 2021 Child Poverty Rate Under the EITC and CTC by Family Structure Characteristics

8-2 Estimated 2021 Child Poverty Rate Under the EITC and CTC by Family Socioeconomic Status

8-3 Estimated 2021 Child Poverty Rate Under the EITC and CTC by Residential Location

8-4 Estimated 2021 Child Poverty Rate Under the EITC and CTC by Race/Ethnicity and Nativity and Citizenship/Immigration Status

8-5 Estimated 2021 Child Poverty Under Alternative Specifications—Summary

9-1 Parameters for Child Tax Credit (CTC) Components of Policy Options (POs)

9-2 Estimated Child Poverty for Committee’s Policy Options (POs) Compared to the Non-ARPA EITC + TCJA CTC Policy Option (PO 1)

9-3 Estimated Child Poverty for Committee’s Policy Options (POs) With and Without Higher EITC Compared to the Non-ARPA EITC + TCJA CTC Policy (PO 1)

9-4 Estimated Child Poverty for Committee’s Policy Options, Including Employment Effects

9-5 Estimated Child Poverty for Policy Options (POs) With/Without Employment Effects and With/Without Higher EITC

9-6 Estimated Child Poverty Rates for Families in Deep Poverty, Poverty, Near Poverty, and Below 200% of Poverty for the Non-ARPA EITC + TCJA CTC Policy and Committee’s Policy Options (POs)

9-7 Distribution of Estimated CTC and EITC Fiscal Outlays by Poverty Status for Non-ARPA EITC + TCJA CTC Policy and Committee’s Policy Options (POs)

9-8 Estimated Child Poverty Rates for Committee’s Policy Options (POs) by Subgroups

C-1 Official Poverty Measure (OPM) Specifications

C-2 Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) Specifications

D-1 Poverty Rates and Composition of All Children and Children in Poverty by Subgroup (SPM<100%), 2018 and 2021

D-2 Child Poverty Rates and Child Poverty Rate Gaps by Subgroup (SPM<100%), 2018 and 2021

E-1 Rates of Adults in CPS ASEC Households with Protected Identification Keys (PIKs)

E-2 Tax Filing Status Based on CPS ASEC Tax Model and IRS 1040s and Match Rates Between Them

E-3 Mean Differences in Number of Dependents in CPS ASEC TFUs Versus Those Found in IRS 1040s by CPS ASEC Tax Model Tax Filing Statuses

E-4 EITC and CTC Eligibility and Mean Estimated Amounts by Whether TFUs CPS ASEC Tax Model Filing Status Does or Does Not Match 1040 IRS Status and for All TFUs

F-1 EITC and Pre-ARPA CTC Studies Included to Determine Elasticities

F-2 Sample Restrictions and Study Years for Baseline Return to Work (RTW) Calculations for EITC Studies

G-1 Estimated 2021 Child Poverty Rate Under the EITC and CTC Programs by Family Structure Characteristics

G-2 Estimated 2021 Child Poverty Rate Under the EITC and CTC by Family Socioeconomic Status

G-3 Estimated 2021 Child Poverty Rate Under the EITC and CTC by Residential Location

G-4 Estimated 2021 Child Poverty Rate Under the EITC and CTC by Race/Ethnicity and Nativity and Citizenship/Immigration Status

G-5 Estimated Receipt of the EITC and CTC by Pre–Tax Credit Poverty Status, 2021

G-6 Effects of 2021 EITC and CTC on Child Poverty, Committee and Census Estimates

G-7 Estimated Effects of the 2021 EITC and CTC on Child Poverty with Employment Effects Incorporated

G-8 Estimated Effects of the 2021 EITC and CTC on Child Poverty Assuming Other Major Pandemic Programs Not in Place

G-9 Estimated Effects of the 2021 EITC and CTC on Deep and Near Child Poverty

G-10 Estimated Fiscal Benefit Outlays from Program Introduction, by Pre–Tax Credit Poverty Stratum (in millions)

G-11 Estimated Effects of the 2021 EITC and CTC on Child Poverty by Year of Credit Accrual Versus Year of Credit Receipt

H-1 Key Results of Immigrant Status Imputation Procedures, CY 2021 CPS-TRIM3 Data

H-2 TRIM3-Simulated Benefits Compared with Administrative Totals, 2021

H-3 TRIM3-Simulated Payroll Taxes Compared with Administrative Targets, 2021

H-4 TRIM3-Simulated Federal and State Income Taxes Compared with Administrative Targets, 2021

H-5 TRIM3-Simulated CDCTC, EITC, and CTC Compared with Administrative Totals, 2021

H-6 Tax Units with Advance Child Tax Credit and Amount Received, by AGI Level, IRS Aggregates and TRIM3 Estimates, 2021

H-7 Tax Units with Advance Child Tax Credit and Amount Received by Filing Status, IRS Aggregates and TRIM3 Estimates, 2021

H-8 TRIM3-Simulated Economic Impact Payments Compared with Administrative Totals, 2021

H-9 TRIM3 Benefits and Expenses Incorporated into the 2021 SPM

H-10 Effect of TRIM3 Adjustments on SPM Child Poverty and Deep Poverty Estimates, 2021

H-11 Assumptions for Modeling Unemployment Benefits in 2021

I-1 Estimated Poverty Rates and Number of Children for Families in Deep Poverty, Poverty, Near Poverty, and 200% of SPM Threshold for All Policy Options (POs), with Comparisons to Policy Option 1

I-2 Detailed Distribution of Estimated EITC and CTC Fiscal Outlays by Policy Option (PO), for Selected POs

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Acronyms

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