Pathways to Reduce Child Poverty: Impacts of Federal Tax Credits (2026)
Chapter: Appendix G: Detailed Tables for Impacts of EITC and CTC Policies in 2021 on Child Poverty Rates for Subgroups
Appendix G
Detailed Tables for Impacts of EITC and CTC Policies in 2021 on Child Poverty Rates for Subgroups
| No EITC or CTC | EITC Policy in 2021 | TCJA CTC Only | EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only | Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Family Composition | |||||
| Married Parents | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% |
| 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.9 | ||
| 14.9% | 17.8% | 27.7% | 49.2% | ||
| Cohabiting Parents | 9.8% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 6.0% |
| 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 3.8 | ||
| 10.8% | 7.7% | 15.8% | 39.2% | ||
| Single Parent | 9.9% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 4.2% |
| 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 5.6 | ||
| 11.6% | 6.4% | 16.0% | 57.1% | ||
| No EITC or CTC | EITC Policy in 2021 | TCJA CTC Only | EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only | Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Children in Family | |||||
| One | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% |
| 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 2.0 | ||
| 10.7% | 6.5% | 15.6% | 31.2% | ||
| Two | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.5% |
| 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 2.4 | ||
| 15.4% | 12.0% | 24.7% | 49.6% | ||
| Three+ | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 3.9 | ||
| 11.8% | 13.5% | 20.7% | 65.6% | ||
| Age of Children Present | |||||
| <6 | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.8% |
| 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 3.2 | ||
| 13.8% | 12.1% | 23.2% | 53.7% | ||
| 6 to 17 | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.8% |
| 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 2.8 | ||
| 12.2% | 10.6% | 19.4% | 49.6% | ||
NOTES: Percentage point change shown in italics; percent change shown bold. Estimates do not include employment effects. “Family” refers to the Supplemental Poverty Measure unit. CTC = Child Tax Credit, EITC = Earned Income Tax Credit, TCJA = Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
SOURCE: Estimates from TRIM3 commissioned by the committee.
TABLE G-2 Estimated 2021 Child Poverty Rate Under the EITC and CTC by Family Socioeconomic Status
| No EITC or CTC | EITC Policy in 2021 | TCJA CTC Only | EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only | Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Educational Attainment of Mother, Father, or Family Heada | |||||
| Less than high school | 18.4% | 16.5% | 17.1% | 15.1% | 9.5% |
| 1.9 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 8.8 | ||
| 10.2% | 7.1% | 17.6% | 48.1% | ||
| High school | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.3% |
| 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 4.3 | ||
| 16.9% | 15.6% | 24.7% | 56.5% | ||
| Some college | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.7% |
| 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 2.5 | ||
| 14.5% | 13.2% | 23.6% | 59.2% | ||
| College+ | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% |
| 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.9 | ||
| 8.1% | 9.9% | 17.2% | 40.6% | ||
| Employment Status of Adults in the Familyb | |||||
| At least one full-time full-year worker | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% |
| 0.6 | 0.6 | 1 | 1.6 | ||
| 22.3% | 22.9% | 37.2% | 59.2% | ||
| No full-time full-year workers but at least one part-time part-year worker | 11.6% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 5.5% |
| 1.8 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 6.1 | ||
| 15.4% | 40.7% | 23.7% | 52.5% | ||
| No workers | 34.9% | 34.9% | 34.9% | 34.9% | 20.7% |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.2 | ||
| 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 40.6% | ||
| Other Safety Net Receipt | |||||
| Yes | 10.7% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 4.9% |
| 1.4 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 5.7 | ||
| 13.0% | 10.2% | 20.0% | 53.9% | ||
| No EITC or CTC | EITC Policy in 2021 | TCJA CTC Only | EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only | Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | ||
| 11.0% | 15.9% | 24.0% | 35.3% | ||
| Family Has a Nonelderly Member with a Disabilityc | |||||
| Yes | 10.5% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 5.0% |
| 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 5.5 | ||
| 3.5% | 2.8% | 6.0% | 52.4% | ||
| No | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.6% |
| 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 2.7 | ||
| 14.4% | 12.7% | 23.4% | 50.6% | ||
NOTES: Percentage point change shown in italics; percent change shown bold. Estimates do not include employment effects. “Yes” under Other Safety Net Receipt means at least one family member received the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program, Medicaid, Children’s Health Insurance Program, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, General Assistance, Supplemental Security Income, or public/subsidized housing. “Family” refers to the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) unit. “Family head” refers to SPM reference person. CTC = Child Tax Credit, EITC = Earned Income Tax Credit, TCJA = Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
a These rows reflect the characteristics of the child’s biological, adoptive, or stepmother (if present), else the biological, adoptive, or stepfather (if present). If neither the father nor mother is present, then the characteristics of the SPM unit head are used, unless the child is the unit head, spouse, or cohabiting partner, in which case, the child is excluded from these rows.
b These rows reflect the work status of persons aged 18 or older in the SPM poverty unit. “Full-year” is classified as 50 weeks or more, and “full-time” is classified as 35 hours per week or more. Children in units without adults (i.e., those aged 15 to 17 living without parents or caretakers) are included in the “no workers” row.
c A child is classified as being in an SPM poverty unit with a person with a disability if there is at least one person in the unit who is younger than 65 and is identified as disabled according to the definition used when determining Supplemental Security income eligibility.
SOURCE: Estimates from TRIM3 commissioned by the committee.
TABLE G-3 Estimated 2021 Child Poverty Rate Under the EITC and CTC by Residential Location
| No EITC or CTC | EITC Policy in 2021 | TCJA CTC Only | EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only | Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metropolitan/Nonmetropolitan Residence | |||||
| Metropolitan | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
| 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 3.0 | ||
| 12.9% | 11.6% | 21.0% | 50.8% | ||
| Nonmetropolitan | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
| 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 2.0 | ||
| 9.9% | 6.2% | 15.6% | 52.1% | ||
| Division of Residence | |||||
| New England | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.2% |
| 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.6 | ||
| 8.2% | 14.2% | 18.5% | 33.2% | ||
| Middle Atlantic | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.9% |
| 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 3.1 | ||
| 11.2% | 14.0% | 20.0% | 51.6% | ||
| East North Central | 3.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 2.4% |
| 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | ||
| 12.9% | 9.8% | 21.6% | 70.8% | ||
| West North Central | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.5% |
| 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.6 | ||
| 10.1% | 7.2% | 11.8% | 51.7% | ||
| South Atlantic | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.5% |
| 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 3.1 | ||
| 10.3% | 10.4% | 19.1% | 46.8% | ||
| East South Central | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 2.8 | ||
| 15.7% | 11.5% | 19.3% | 57.0% | ||
| West South Central | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.4% |
| 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 3.7 | ||
| 12.9% | 6.9% | 17.5% | 45.9% | ||
| No EITC or CTC | EITC Policy in 2021 | TCJA CTC Only | EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only | Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mountain | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.6% |
| 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 2.3 | ||
| 11.9% | 6.7% | 15.6% | 46.7% | ||
| Pacific | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.0% |
| 1.1 | 1.1 | 2 | 3.6 | ||
| 17.0% | 16.8% | 30.3% | 54.7% |
NOTES: Percentage point change shown in italics; percent change shown in bold. Estimates do not include employment effects. CTC = Child Tax Credit, EITC = Earned Income Tax Credit, TCJA = Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
SOURCE: Estimates from TRIM3 commissioned by the committee.
| No EITC or CTC | EITC Policy in 2021 | TCJA CTC Only | EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only | Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race/Ethnicity | |||||
| White non-Hispanic | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | ||
| 15.6% | 13.6% | 25.1% | 54.2% | ||
| Black non-Hispanic | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.0% |
| 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 4.1 | ||
| 7.2% | 6.2% | 12.5% | 57.3% | ||
| Hispanic | 11.6% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 6.2% |
| 1.5 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 5.5 | ||
| 12.6% | 11.0% | 21.6% | 46.9% | ||
| Asian Pacific Islander non-Hispanic | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.8% |
| 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 2.6 | ||
| 13.6% | 13.1% | 20.0% | 47.7% | ||
| Other (non-Hispanic)a | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 2.5 | ||
| 20.8% | 18.8% | 21.0% | 62.9% | ||
| No EITC or CTC | EITC Policy in 2021 | TCJA CTC Only | EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only | Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Child and Parent or Family Head Nativityb | |||||
| U.S.-born child/immigrant head | 10.6% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 5.4% |
| 1.2 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 5.2 | ||
| 11.8% | 13.6% | 23.5% | 49.1% | ||
| U.S.-born child/U.S.-born head | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 2.1 | ||
| 15.8% | 10.9% | 21.4% | 64.0% | ||
| Foreign-born child | 21.4% | 19.8% | 20.2% | 18.7% | 16.5% |
| 1.6 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 4.9 | ||
| 7% | 6% | 12% | 23% | ||
| Citizenship/Immigration Status of SPM Family Membersc | |||||
| Child in all-citizen family | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 2.0 | ||
| 15.9% | 10.9% | 21.4% | 61.8% | ||
| Child in mixed-status family | 16.0% | 14.4% | 14.2% | 12.8% | 9.4% |
| 1.6 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 6.6 | ||
| 9.8% | 11.3% | 20.0% | 41.3% | ||
| Citizen child in mixed-status familyd | 14.3% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 11.1% | 7.4% |
| 1.6 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 7 | ||
| 11.0% | 13.6% | 22.9% | 48.5% | ||
| Citizen child in mixed-status family with undocumented member | 21.5% | 21.4% | 18.9% | 18.7% | 12.8% |
| 0.1 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 8.7 | ||
| 0.45% | 11.96% | 12.82% | 40.50% | ||
| Noncitizen child in mixed-status familye | 24.6% | 23.1% | 23.5% | 21.9% | 19.8% |
| 1.5 | 1.1 | 2.7 | 4.8 | ||
| 6.3% | 4.6% | 11.1% | 19.5% | ||
| No EITC or CTC | EITC Policy in 2021 | TCJA CTC Only | EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only | Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noncitizen child in mixed-status family with undocumented member | 34.1% | 34.1% | 32.9% | 32.9% | 31.0% |
| 0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 3.1 | ||
| 0.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 9.1% |
NOTES: Percentage point change in italics; percent change in bold. An “other noncitizen” includes noncitizens not classified as unauthorized or recent. These include legal permanent residents who have been in the United States for more than 5 years, refugees/asylees, and “temporary residents”—noncitizens legally admitted to the United States for a specified period and for a specified purpose, such as students, guest workers, intra-company transfers, diplomats, and au pairs. “Family” refers to the SPM unit. “Family head” and “Family Members” refer to SPM reference person. CTC = Child Tax Credit, EITC = Earned Income Tax Credit, SPM = Supplemental Poverty Measure, TCJA = Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
a The “other” race category includes non-Hispanic children who are American Indian or Alaska Natives or report more than one race.
b If a child has at least one biological, adoptive, or stepparent that was born in another country, the child is classified as having an immigrant parent. Persons born abroad to American parents are counted as native born. If a child does not have a parent present, the immigrant status of the unit head and the unit head’s spouse are used, unless the child is the unit head, spouse, or cohabiting partner, in which case the child is excluded from these rows.
c The child is placed in the first row that applies. Citizens include both native-born and naturalized citizens.
d A citizen child is classified as being in a mixed-status family if there is at least one noncitizen in the SPM unit.
e All noncitizen children are classified as being in mixed-status families.
SOURCE: Estimates from TRIM3 commissioned by the committee.
TABLE G-5 Estimated Receipt of the EITC and CTC by Pre–Tax Credit Poverty Status, 2021
| Poverty Status in the Absence of EITC and CTC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <50% poverty | 50%–100% poverty | 100%–150% poverty | 150%–200% poverty | |
| Total families with children (1000s) | 450 | 1,773 | 5,424 | 6,493 |
| EITC Policy in 2021 | ||||
| Families estimated to receive (1000s) | 67 | 722 | 3,452 | 3,225 |
| Share receiving | 15% | 41% | 64% | 50% |
| Average credit if received | $1,778 | $3,359 | $3,220 | $2,765 |
| TCJA CTC | ||||
| Families estimated to receive (1000s) | 109 | 954 | 4,166 | 5,595 |
| Share receiving | 24% | 54% | 77% | 86% |
| Average credit if received | $1,505 | $1,966 | $2,867 | $3,532 |
| ARPA CTC Expansion | ||||
| Units estimated to receive (1000s) | 199 | 698 | 1,139 | 788 |
| Share receiving | 44% | 39% | 21% | 12% |
| Average credit if received | $4,633 | $4,706 | $3,915 | $3,454 |
| CTC Policy in 2021 (TCJA CTC and ARPA CTC Expansion Combined) | ||||
| Share receiving | 69% | 93% | 98% | 98% |
| Average credit if received | $5,166 | $5,841 | $6,166 | $6,550 |
NOTES: Pre-credit poverty status is Supplemental Poverty Measure status excluding EITC and CTC tax credits from resources. ARPA = American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, CTC = Child Tax Credit, EITC = Earned Income Tax Credit, TCJA = Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
SOURCE: Estimates from TRIM3 commissioned by the committee.
TABLE G-6 Effects of 2021 EITC and CTC on Child Poverty, Committee and Census Estimates
| No EITC or CTC | EITC Policy in 2021 | TCJA CTC Only | EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only | Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Committee Estimates | |||||
| Poverty rate | 5.7 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.8 |
| Decrease in poverty rate | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 2.9 | |
| (% reduction from column 1) | 12% | 11% | 21% | 51% | |
| Number children removed from poverty (1000s) | 531 | 465 | 864 | 2,132 | |
| Census Estimates | |||||
| (Replication) | |||||
| Poverty rate | 11.6 | 9.2 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 5.2 |
| Decrease in poverty rate | 2.4 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 6.4 | |
| (% reduction from column 1) | 26% | 13% | 30% | 55% | |
| Number children removed from poverty (1000s) | 1,763 | 1,102 | 2,607 | 4,710 | |
NOTES: Estimates do not incorporate employment effects. CTC = Child Tax Credit, EITC = Earned Income Tax Credit, TCJA = Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
SOURCE: Estimates from TRIM3 commissioned by the committee.
| No EITC or CTC | EITC Policy in 2021 | TCJA CTC Only | EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only | Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | |||||
| Poverty rate | 5.7 | 5 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.8 |
| Decrease in poverty rate | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 2.9 | |
| (% reduction from column 1) | 12% | 11% | 21% | 51% | |
| Number children removed from poverty (1000s) | 531 | 465 | 864 | 2,132 | |
| Low EE | |||||
| Poverty rate | 5.9 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.8 |
| Decrease in Poverty Rate | 1 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 3.1 | |
| (% reduction from column 1) | 17% | 14% | 25% | 53% | |
| Number children removed from poverty (1000s) | 717 | 611 | 1,066 | 2,271 | |
| Medium EE | |||||
| Poverty rate | 6.0 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.8 |
| Decrease in poverty rate | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 3.2 | |
| (% reduction from column 1) | 17% | 15% | 26% | 53% | |
| Number of children removed from poverty (1000s) | 717 | 664 | 1,164 | 2,354 | |
| High EE | |||||
| Poverty rate | 6.2 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 2.8 |
| Decrease in poverty rate | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3.4 | |
| (% reduction from column 1) | 17% | 17% | 29% | 55% | |
| Number of children removed from poverty (1000s) | 717 | 748 | 1,300 | 2,485 | |
NOTE: CTC = Child Tax Credit, EE = employment effects, EITC = Earned Income Tax Credit, TCJA = Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
SOURCE: Estimates from TRIM3 commissioned by the committee.
| No EITC or CTC | EITC Policy in 2021 | TCJA CTC Only | EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only | Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poverty rate | 17 | 13.5 | 14 | 11.6 | 7.1 |
| Decrease in poverty rate | 3.5 | 3 | 5.6 | 9.9 | |
| (% reduction from column 1) | 21% | 18% | 33% | 58% | |
| Number of children removed from poverty (1000s) | 2,540 | 2,207 | 4,112 | 7,229 |
NOTES: See the text for the list of other major pandemic programs. Estimates do not include employment effects. CTC = Child Tax Credit, EITC = Earned Income Tax Credit, TCJA = Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
SOURCE: Estimates from TRIM3 commissioned by the committee.
TABLE G-9 Estimated Effects of the 2021 EITC and CTC on Deep and Near Child Poverty
| No EITC or CTC | EITC Policy in 2021 | TCJA CTC Only | EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only | Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Poverty (50% of Threshold) | |||||
| Deep poverty rate | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 |
| Decrease in deep poverty rate | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | |
| (percent change) | 9% | 9% | 9% | 36% | |
| Number of children removed from deep poverty (1000s) | 33 | 59 | 82 | 308 | |
| Near Poverty (150% of Threshold) | |||||
| Near poverty rate | 20.5 | 17.8 | 17.2 | 14.9 | 10.7 |
| Decrease in near poverty rate (percent) | 2.7 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 9.8 | |
| (percent change) | 13% | 18% | 27% | 48% | |
| Number of children removed from near poverty (1000s) | 2,021 | 2,417 | 4,168 | 7,203 | |
NOTE: CTC = Child Tax Credit, EITC = Earned Income Tax Credit, TCJA = Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
SOURCE: Estimates from TRIM3 commissioned by the committee.
| No EITC or CTC | EITC Policy in 2021 | EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only | Combined EITC and CTC Policies in 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Estimated Outlays | 28,858 | 105,873 | 134,705 | 228,526 |
| Below Poverty Pre Tax Credits | 2,546 | 2,037 | 4,581 | 13,783 |
| (% of total) | 9% | 2% | 3% | 6% |
| Below 150% Poverty Pre Tax Credits | 13,735 | 14,034 | 27,759 | 57,673 |
| (% of total) | 48% | 13% | 21% | 25% |
| Below 200% Poverty Pre Tax Credits | 22,826 | 33,919 | 56,731 | 108,638 |
| (% of total) | 79% | 32% | 42% | 48% |
| Above Poverty Pre Tax Credits | 26,312 | 103,836 | 130,124 | 214,743 |
| (% of total) | 91% | 98% | 97% | 94% |
| Above 150% Poverty Pre Tax Credits | 15,123 | 91,839 | 106,946 | 170,853 |
| (% of total) | 52% | 87% | 79% | 75% |
| Above 200% Poverty Pre Tax Credits | 6,032 | 71,954 | 77,974 | 119,888 |
| (% of total) | 21% | 68% | 58% | 52% |
NOTE: CTC = Child Tax Credit, EITC = Earned Income Tax Credit, TCJA = Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
SOURCE: Estimates from TRIM3 commissioned by the committee.
| No EITC or CTC | EITC Policy in 2021 | TCJA CTC Only | EITC Policy in 2021 + TCJA CTC Only | Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panel A: Year of Accrual | |||||
| Poverty rate | 5.7 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.8 |
| Decrease in poverty rate | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 2.9 | |
| (percent reduction from column 1) | 12% | 11% | 21% | 51% | |
| Number of children removed from poverty | 531 | 465 | 864 | 2132 | |
| Panel B: Year of Receipt | |||||
| Poverty rate | 5.6 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 3.5 |
| Decrease in poverty rate | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.1 | |
| (percent reduction from column 1) | 13% | 9% | 18% | 38% | |
| Number of children removed from poverty | 508 | 352 | 732 | 1544 | |
NOTES: Panel A replicates Table G-6 and assigns to each family the credits accrued to that family on the basis of its 2021 income, regardless of the year such credits were actually received. Panel B is an estimate from the Urban Institute TRIM3 of the credits actually received in calendar 2021, counting any credits received in spring 2021 on the basis of 2020 income and counting for the American Rescue Plan Act CTC Expansion only the half eligible to be received in calendar 2021. Estimates do not include employment effects. CTC = Child Tax Credit, EITC = Earned Income Tax Credit, TCJA = Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
SOURCE: Estimates from TRIM3 commissioned by the committee.
