Pathways to Reduce Child Poverty: Impacts of Federal Tax Credits (2026)
Chapter: Appendix I: Additional Tables on Alternative Policy Options
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Appendix H: Urban Institute TRIM3 Technical Specification: Using Microsimulation to Assess the Impact of the 2021 Child Tax Credit and Earned Income Tax Credit
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Suggested Citation:
"Appendix I: Additional Tables on Alternative Policy Options." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2026. Pathways to Reduce Child Poverty: Impacts of Federal Tax Credits. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
doi: 10.17226/29163.
Suggested Citation:
"Appendix I: Additional Tables on Alternative Policy Options." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2026. Pathways to Reduce Child Poverty: Impacts of Federal Tax Credits. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
doi: 10.17226/29163.
| Poverty Rate | Change Relative to PO 1 | Percent Change Relative to PO 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Povertya | Povertyb | Near Povertyc | Below 200%d | Deep Povertya | Povertyb | Near Povertyc | Below 200%d | Deep Povertya | Povertyb | Near Povertyc | Below 200%d | |
| *PO 1 | 1.9% | 11.1% | 32.1% | 48.4% | ||||||||
| PO 2 | 1.9% | 11.0% | 31.9% | 48.3% | 0.00% | –0.03% | –0.21% | –0.14% | –0.21% | –0.28% | –0.65% | –0.28% |
| PO 3 | 1.9% | 11.0% | 31.9% | 48.3% | 0.01% | –0.02% | –0.21% | –0.08% | 0.69% | –0.21% | –0.64% | –0.16% |
| PO 4 | 1.9% | 10.9% | 31.7% | 48.3% | –0.02% | –0.16% | –0.36% | –0.09% | –0.84% | –1.49% | –1.11% | –0.18% |
| PO 5 | 1.8% | 10.4% | 31.0% | 48.2% | –0.13% | –0.67% | –1.12% | –0.19% | –6.88% | –6.03% | –3.48% | –0.39% |
| PO 6 | 1.5% | 9.7% | 30.8% | 48.2% | –0.36% | –1.34% | –1.28% | –0.24% | –19.08% | –12.12% | –3.99% | –0.50% |
| PO 7 | 1.7% | 10.1% | 30.7% | 48.2% | –0.15% | –0.91% | –1.43% | –0.23% | –8.06% | –8.27% | –4.46% | –0.47% |
| PO 8 | 1.7% | 9.9% | 30.6% | 48.1% | –0.19% | –1.17% | –1.50% | –0.27% | –10.10% | –10.59% | –4.67% | –0.56% |
| PO 9 | 1.4% | 8.9% | 30.3% | 48.1% | –0.48% | –2.15% | –1.82% | –0.36% | –25.66% | –19.41% | –5.67% | –0.74% |
| PO 10 | 1.2% | 6.9% | 25.6% | 45.6% | –0.70% | –4.20% | –6.46% | –2.80% | –36.98% | –37.96% | –20.12% | –5.78% |
| PO 11 | 1.1% | 6.7% | 25.6% | 45.6% | –0.78% | –4.34% | –6.49% | –2.82% | –41.46% | –39.26% | –20.22% | –5.82% |
| **PO 12 | 1.0% | 6.5% | 25.5% | 45.6% | –0.93% | –4.59% | –6.56% | –2.85% | –49.53% | –41.52% | –20.46% | –5.89% |
| PO 13 | 0.8% | 4.5% | 19.5% | 40.3% | –1.09% | –6.58% | –12.56% | –8.06% | –57.87% | –59.48% | –39.16% | –16.66% |
Suggested Citation:
"Appendix I: Additional Tables on Alternative Policy Options." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2026. Pathways to Reduce Child Poverty: Impacts of Federal Tax Credits. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
doi: 10.17226/29163.
| PO 14 | 0.8% | 5.7% | 23.5% | 44.0% | –1.04% | –5.40% | –8.62% | –4.39% | –55.16% | –48.88% | –26.87% | –9.08% |
| PO 15 | 0.9% | 6.3% | 25.4% | 45.5% | –1.01% | –4.74% | –6.65% | –2.90% | –53.51% | –42.85% | –20.73% | –6.00% |
| PO 16 | 0.8% | 5.7% | 25.1% | 45.4% | –1.05% | –5.31% | –7.02% | –2.97% | –55.97% | –48.04% | –21.88% | –6.14% |
a Deep poverty is income below 50% of SPM threshold.
b Poverty is income below 100% of SPM threshold.
c Near poverty is income below 150% of SPM threshold.
d Below poverty is income below 200% of SPM threshold.
Suggested Citation:
"Appendix I: Additional Tables on Alternative Policy Options." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2026. Pathways to Reduce Child Poverty: Impacts of Federal Tax Credits. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
doi: 10.17226/29163.
| # of Children (in millions) | Change in # of Children (in millions) Relative to PO 1 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Povertya | Povertyb | Near Povertyc | Below 200%d | Deep Povertya | Povertyb | Near Povertyc | Below 200%d | |
| *PO 1 | 1.389 | 8.159 | 23.675 | 35.724 | –0.003 | –0.023 | –0.153 | –0.102 |
| PO 2 | 1.387 | 8.136 | 23.521 | 35.622 | 0.010 | –0.017 | –0.152 | –0.058 |
| PO 3 | 1.399 | 8.142 | 23.523 | 35.665 | –0.012 | –0.121 | –0.263 | –0.058 |
| PO 4 | 1.378 | 8.038 | 23.412 | 35.665 | –0.096 | –0.492 | –0.824 | –0.139 |
| PO 5 | 1.294 | 7.668 | 22.851 | 35.584 | –0.265 | –0.989 | –0.946 | –0.179 |
| PO 6 | 1.124 | 7.171 | 22.729 | 35.545 | –0.112 | –0.675 | –1.056 | –0.168 |
| PO 7 | 1.277 | 7.484 | 22.619 | 35.556 | –0.140 | –0.864 | –1.105 | –0.201 |
| PO 8 | 1.249 | 7.295 | 22.570 | 35.522 | –0.356 | –1.583 | –1.342 | –0.448 |
| PO 9 | 1.033 | 6.576 | 22.333 | 35.275 | –0.514 | –3.097 | –4.764 | –2.067 |
| PO 10 | 0.876 | 5.062 | 18.911 | 33.657 | –0.576 | –3.204 | –4.786 | –2.081 |
| PO 11 | 0.813 | 4.956 | 18.888 | 33.643 | –0.688 | –3.388 | –4.844 | –2.081 |
| **PO 12 | 0.701 | 4.772 | 18.831 | 33.643 | –0.804 | –4.853 | –9.272 | –5.951 |
| PO 13 | 0.585 | 3.307 | 14.403 | 29.772 | –0.766 | –3.988 | –6.361 | –3.242 |
| PO 14 | 0.623 | 4.171 | 17.313 | 32.481 | –0.743 | –3.497 | –4.907 | –2.143 |
| PO 15 | 0.646 | 4.663 | 18.768 | 33.581 | –0.778 | –3.920 | –5.181 | –2.193 |
| PO 16 | 0.612 | 4.239 | 18.494 | 33.531 | –1.389 | –8.159 | –23.675 | –35.724 |
NOTES: Bolded POs denote focal options. *PO 1 is the non-American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (ARPA) Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) + Tax Cuts and Job Act Child Tax Credit (CTC) PO, and **PO 12 is the Modified Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021 under ARPA.
a Deep poverty is income below 50% of Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) threshold.
b Poverty is income below 100% of SPM threshold.
c Near poverty is income below 150% of SPM threshold.
d Below poverty is income below 200% of SPM threshold.
SOURCE: Estimates from TRIM3 commissioned by the committee.
Suggested Citation:
"Appendix I: Additional Tables on Alternative Policy Options." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2026. Pathways to Reduce Child Poverty: Impacts of Federal Tax Credits. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
doi: 10.17226/29163.
| <50% of SPM* (Deep Poverty) | <100% of SPM* (Poverty) | <150% SPM* (Near Poverty) | <200% of SPM* | >= 200% of SPM* | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # of SPM units with children <18 (millions) | 1,092 | 5,380 | 7,115 | 5,218 | 19,355 | |
| *PO 1 | ||||||
| CTCb | ||||||
| SPM units with CTC | 513 | 4,002 | 6,021 | 4,721 | 17,251 | |
| Share with CTC | 46.9% | 74.4% | 84.6% | 90.5% | 89.1% | |
| Mean nonzero CTC | $1,782 | $2,689 | $3,501 | $3,584 | $3,399 | |
| EITC | ||||||
| SPM units with EITC | 439 | 3,432 | 4,338 | 1,653 | 1,375 | |
| Share with EITC | 40.2% | 63.8% | 61.0% | 31.7% | 7.1% | |
| Mean nonzero EITC | $3,269 | $4,079 | $3,182 | $2,480 | $2,391 | |
| CTC and EITCb | ||||||
| SPM units with CTC and/or EITC | 581 | 4,225 | 6,252 | 4,839 | 17,354 | |
| Share CTC and/or EITC | 53.2% | 78.5% | 87.9% | 92.7% | 89.7% | |
| Mean nonzero CTC and/or EITC | $4,047 | $5,860 | $5,581 | $4,344 | $3,568 | |
| PO 3 | ||||||
| CTCb | ||||||
| SPM units with CTC | 510 | 4,093 | 6,179 | 4,875 | 13,420 | |
| Share with CTC | 46.7% | 76.1% | 86.8% | 93.4% | 69.3% | |
| Mean nonzero CTC | $1,737 | $2,718 | $3,562 | $3,629 | $2,800 | |
| EITC | ||||||
| SPM units with EITC | 439 | 3,432 | 4,338 | 1,653 | 1,375 | |
| Share with EITC | 40.2% | 63.8% | 61.0% | 31.7% | 7.1% | |
Suggested Citation:
"Appendix I: Additional Tables on Alternative Policy Options." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2026. Pathways to Reduce Child Poverty: Impacts of Federal Tax Credits. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
doi: 10.17226/29163.
| <50% of SPM* (Deep Poverty) | <100% of SPM* (Poverty) | <150% SPM* (Near Poverty) | <200% of SPM* | >= 200% of SPM* | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean nonzero EITC | $3,269 | $4,079 | $3,182 | $2,480 | $2,391 | |
| CTC and EITCb | ||||||
| SPM units with CTC and/or EITC | 568 | 4,228 | 6,281 | 4,921 | 13,498 | |
| Share CTC and/or EITC | 52.0% | 78.6% | 88.3% | 94.3% | 69.7% | |
| Mean nonzero CTC and/or EITC | $4,086 | $5,942 | $5,702 | $4,428 | $3,028 | |
| PO 6 | ||||||
| CTCb | ||||||
| SPM units with CTC | 925 | 5,224 | 6,918 | 5,059 | 13,672 | |
| Share with CTC | 84.7% | 97.1% | 97.2% | 96.9% | 70.6% | |
| Mean nonzero CTC | $2,323 | $3,118 | $3,686 | $3,654 | $2,795 | |
| EITC | ||||||
| SPM units with EITC | 439 | 3,432 | 4,338 | 1,653 | 1,375 | |
| Share with EITC | 40.2% | 63.8% | 61.0% | 31.7% | 7.1% | |
| Mean nonzero EITC | $3,269 | $4,079 | $3,182 | $2,480 | $2,391 | |
| CTC and EITCb | ||||||
| SPM units with CTC and/or EITC | 930 | 5,246 | 6,949 | 5,089 | 13,727 | |
| Share CTC and/or EITC | 85.1% | 97.5% | 97.7% | 97.5% | 70.9% | |
| Mean nonzero CTC and/or EITC | $3,855 | $5,773 | $5,656 | $4,438 | $3,024 | |
| PO 9 | ||||||
| CTCb | ||||||
| SPM units with CTC | 750 | 4,945 | 6,790 | 5,000 | 13,613 | |
| Share with CTC | 68.7% | 91.9% | 95.4% | 95.8% | 70.3% | |
| Mean nonzero CTC | $3,565 | $4,036 | $4,116 | $3,804 | $2,844 | |
Suggested Citation:
"Appendix I: Additional Tables on Alternative Policy Options." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2026. Pathways to Reduce Child Poverty: Impacts of Federal Tax Credits. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
doi: 10.17226/29163.
| <50% of SPM* (Deep Poverty) | <100% of SPM* (Poverty) | <150% SPM* (Near Poverty) | <200% of SPM* | >= 200% of SPM* | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EITC | ||||||
| SPM units with EITC | 439 | 3,432 | 4,338 | 1,653 | 1,375 | |
| Share with EITC | 40.2% | 63.8% | 61.0% | 31.7% | 7.1% | |
| Mean nonzero EITC | $3,269 | $4,079 | $3,182 | $2,480 | $2,391 | |
| CTC and EITCb | ||||||
| SPM units with CTC and/or EITC | 760 | 4,978 | 6,824 | 5,038 | 13,668 | |
| Share CTC and/or EITC | 69.6% | 92.5% | 95.9% | 96.5% | 70.6% | |
| Mean nonzero CTC and/or EITC | $5,406 | $6,822 | $6,119 | $4,590 | $3,073 | |
| PO 10 | ||||||
| CTCb | ||||||
| SPM units with CTC | 754 | 4,945 | 6,790 | 5,001 | 15,253 | |
| Share with CTC | 69.1% | 91.9% | 95.4% | 95.8% | 78.8% | |
| Mean nonzero CTC | $5,693 | $6,437 | $6,581 | $6,097 | $4,583 | |
| EITC | ||||||
| SPM units with EITC | 439 | 3,432 | 4,338 | 1,653 | 1,375 | |
| Share with EITC | 40.2% | 63.8% | 61.0% | 31.7% | 7.1% | |
| Mean nonzero EITC | $3,269 | $4,079 | $3,182 | $2,480 | $2,391 | |
| CTC and EITCb | ||||||
| SPM units with CTC and/or EITC | 764 | 4,978 | 6,824 | 5,038 | 15,303 | |
| Share CTC and/or EITC | 70.0% | 92.5% | 95.9% | 96.5% | 79.1% | |
| Mean nonzero CTC and/or EITC | $7,495 | $9,207 | $8,571 | $6,867 | $4,782 | |
| **PO 12 | ||||||
Suggested Citation:
"Appendix I: Additional Tables on Alternative Policy Options." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2026. Pathways to Reduce Child Poverty: Impacts of Federal Tax Credits. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
doi: 10.17226/29163.
| <50% of SPM* (Deep Poverty) | <100% of SPM* (Poverty) | <150% SPM* (Near Poverty) | <200% of SPM* | >= 200% of SPM* | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTCb | ||||||
| SPM units with CTC | 929 | 5,224 | 6,918 | 5,059 | 15,237 | |
| Share with CTC | 85.0% | 97.1% | 97.2% | 97.0% | 78.7% | |
| Mean nonzero CTC | $5,771 | $6,437 | $6,599 | $6,091 | $4,567 | |
| EITC | ||||||
| SPM units with EITC | 439 | 3,432 | 4,338 | 1,653 | 1,375 | |
| Share with EITC | 40.2% | 63.8% | 61.0% | 31.7% | 7.1% | |
| Mean nonzero EITC | $3,269 | $4,079 | $3,182 | $2,480 | $2,391 | |
| CTC and EITCb | ||||||
| SPM units with CTC and/or EITC | 934 | 5,246 | 6,949 | 5,090 | 15,287 | |
| Share CTC and/or EITC | 85.5% | 97.5% | 97.7% | 97.5% | 79.0% | |
| Mean nonzero CTC and/or EITC | $7,276 | $9,079 | $8,556 | $6,860 | $4,767 | |
| PO 13 (fast phase-out) | ||||||
| CTCb | ||||||
| SPM units with CTC | 929 | 5,224 | 6,922 | 5,063 | 16,814 | |
| Share with CTC | 85.0% | 97.1% | 97.3% | 97.0% | 86.9% | |
| Mean nonzero CTC | $8,363 | $9,946 | $10,501 | $9,827 | $7,576 | |
| EITC | ||||||
| SPM units with EITC | 439 | 3,432 | 4,338 | 1,653 | 1,375 | |
| Share with EITC | 40.2% | 63.8% | 61.0% | 31.7% | 7.1% | |
| Mean nonzero EITC | $3,269 | $4,079 | $3,182 | $2,480 | $2,391 | |
| CTC and EITCb | ||||||
| SPM units with CTC and/or EITC | 934 | 5,246 | 6,953 | 5,093 | 16,853 | |
| Share CTC and/or EITC | 85.5% | 97.5% | 97.7% | 97.6% | 87.1% | |
Suggested Citation:
"Appendix I: Additional Tables on Alternative Policy Options." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2026. Pathways to Reduce Child Poverty: Impacts of Federal Tax Credits. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
doi: 10.17226/29163.
| <50% of SPM* (Deep Poverty) | <100% of SPM* (Poverty) | <150% SPM* (Near Poverty) | <200% of SPM* | >= 200% of SPM* | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean nonzero CTC and/or EITC | $9,854 | $12,574 | $12,439 | $10,574 | $7,754 | |
| PO 14 | ||||||
| CTCb | ||||||
| SPM units with CTC | 929 | 5,224 | 6,919 | 5,062 | 15,858 | |
| Share with CTC | 85.0% | 97.1% | 97.3% | 97.0% | 81.9% | |
| Mean nonzero CTC | $6,857 | $7,644 | $7,836 | $7,236 | $5,454 | |
| EITC | ||||||
| SPM units with EITC | 439 | 3,432 | 4,338 | 1,653 | 1,375 | |
| Share with EITC | 40.2% | 63.8% | 61.0% | 31.7% | 7.1% | |
| Mean nonzero EITC | $3,269 | $4,079 | $3,182 | $2,480 | $2,391 | |
| TC and EIT | Cb | |||||
| SPM units with CTC and/or EITC | 934 | 5,246 | 6,950 | 5,092 | 15,906 | |
| Share CTC and/or EITC | 85.5% | 97.5% | 97.7% | 97.6% | 82.2% | |
| Mean nonzero CTC and/or EITC | $8,356 | $10,281 | $9,788 | $7,998 | $5,644 | |
| PO 16 | ||||||
| CTCb | ||||||
| SPM units with CTC | 988 | 5,315 | 7,014 | 5,126 | 15,370 | |
| Share with CTC | 90.5% | 98.8% | 98.6% | 98.2% | 79.4% | |
| Mean nonzero CTC | $5,782 | $6,448 | $6,605 | $6,097 | $4,581 | |
| EITC | ||||||
| SPM units with EITC | 567 | 4,110 | 4,845 | 1,769 | 1,433 | |
| Share with EITC | 51.9% | 76.4% | 68.1% | 33.9% | 7.4% | |
| Mean nonzero EITC | $3,374 | $4,191 | $3,183 | $2,493 | $2,421 | |
Suggested Citation:
"Appendix I: Additional Tables on Alternative Policy Options." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2026. Pathways to Reduce Child Poverty: Impacts of Federal Tax Credits. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
doi: 10.17226/29163.
| <50% of SPM* (Deep Poverty) | <100% of SPM* (Poverty) | <150% SPM* (Near Poverty) | <200% of SPM* | >= 200% of SPM* | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTC and EITCb | ||||||
| SPM units with CTC and/or EITC | 997 | 5,340 | 7,045 | 5,157 | 15,420 | |
| Share CTC and/or EITC | 91.3% | 99.3% | 99.0% | 98.8% | 79.7% | |
| Mean nonzero CTC and/or EITC | $7,651 | $9,643 | $8,763 | $6,916 | $4,791 | |
NOTES: Bolded POs denote focal options. CTC = Child Tax Credit, EITC = Earned Income Tax Credit, SPM = Supplemental Poverty Measure.
* PO 1 is the non-American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (ARPA) EITC + Tax Cuts and Job Act CTC PO. EITC + TCJA CTC policy option.
** PO 12 is the Modified Combined EITC & CTC Policies in 2021 under ARPA.
* SPM threshold is based on family income not including CTC and EITC benefits.
a All dollar values are in 2021 dollars.
b The credit for other dependents is excluded from the value of the CTC but is included in the SPM income measure used to define categories.
SOURCE: Estimates from TRIM3 commissioned by the committee.
Suggested Citation:
"Appendix I: Additional Tables on Alternative Policy Options." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2026. Pathways to Reduce Child Poverty: Impacts of Federal Tax Credits. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
doi: 10.17226/29163.
Suggested Citation:
"Appendix I: Additional Tables on Alternative Policy Options." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2026. Pathways to Reduce Child Poverty: Impacts of Federal Tax Credits. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
doi: 10.17226/29163.
Suggested Citation:
"Appendix I: Additional Tables on Alternative Policy Options." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2026. Pathways to Reduce Child Poverty: Impacts of Federal Tax Credits. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
doi: 10.17226/29163.
Suggested Citation:
"Appendix I: Additional Tables on Alternative Policy Options." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2026. Pathways to Reduce Child Poverty: Impacts of Federal Tax Credits. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
doi: 10.17226/29163.
Suggested Citation:
"Appendix I: Additional Tables on Alternative Policy Options." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2026. Pathways to Reduce Child Poverty: Impacts of Federal Tax Credits. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
doi: 10.17226/29163.
Suggested Citation:
"Appendix I: Additional Tables on Alternative Policy Options." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2026. Pathways to Reduce Child Poverty: Impacts of Federal Tax Credits. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
doi: 10.17226/29163.
Suggested Citation:
"Appendix I: Additional Tables on Alternative Policy Options." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2026. Pathways to Reduce Child Poverty: Impacts of Federal Tax Credits. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
doi: 10.17226/29163.
Suggested Citation:
"Appendix I: Additional Tables on Alternative Policy Options." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2026. Pathways to Reduce Child Poverty: Impacts of Federal Tax Credits. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
doi: 10.17226/29163.
Suggested Citation:
"Appendix I: Additional Tables on Alternative Policy Options." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2026. Pathways to Reduce Child Poverty: Impacts of Federal Tax Credits. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
doi: 10.17226/29163.
Suggested Citation:
"Appendix I: Additional Tables on Alternative Policy Options." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2026. Pathways to Reduce Child Poverty: Impacts of Federal Tax Credits. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
doi: 10.17226/29163.
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