A Synthesis Center for Paleoenvironmental Records of Extreme Events

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Committee on Functions and Criteria for a New Center for Paleoenvironmental Records of Extreme Events

Earth Systems and Resources Program Area

Center for Health, People, and Places

Consensus Study Report

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COMMITTEE ON FUNCTIONS AND CRITERIA FOR A NEW CENTER FOR PALEOENVIRONMENTAL RECORDS OF EXTREME EVENTS

ROBERTA MARINELLI (Chair), Oregon State University

KEVIN J. ANCHUKAITIS, University of Arizona

TRIPTI BHATTACHARYA, Syracuse University

KRISTINA BRADY SHANNON, University of Minnesota

BRADLEY D. CRAMER, The University of Iowa

LAURA GEMERY, U.S. Geological Survey

K. HALIMEDA KILBOURNE, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science

ISABEL P. MONTAÑEZ, University of California, Davis

NORA M. NIEMINSKI, Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys

MICHELLE PENKROT, Texas A&M University, College Station

JOHN W. WILLIAMS, University of Wisconsin–Madison

Study Staff

JONATHAN TUCKER, Study Director

SUSANA RODRIGUEZ, Study Director (as of September 11, 2025)

LINDSAY MOLLER, Research Associate

MAYA FREY, Senior Program Assistant

Reviewers

This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

TINA DURA, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

JOHN ENGLAND, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Risk Management Center

MATT JOECKEL, University of Nebraska–Lincoln

LEE R. KUMP, Pennsylvania State University

NICK MCKAY, Northern Arizona University

MARGARET A. PALMER, University of Maryland, College Park

DAN WARD, Karen Clark & Company

CATHY WHITLOCK, Montana State University

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its

release. The review of this report was overseen by DAVID M. KARL, University of Hawai’i, and JAMES ZACHOS, University of California, Santa Cruz (retired). They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.

Acknowledgments

The committee extends its sincere appreciation to all of the following who generously shared their time, insights, and expertise through thoughtful discussions and informative presentations that helped shape this report:

Jill Baron, Colorado State University

Rodney Cluck, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management

William Collins, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Jeff Donnelly, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

John England, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Alaina Gallagher, National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center

Ben Halpern, National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis and Long-Term Ecological Research

Kelly Heried, Liberty Mutual Insurance

Leslie Hsu, U.S. Geological Survey

Virginia Iglesias, University of Colorado, Boulder and Environmental Data Science Innovation and Impact Laboratory

Allegra LeGrande, National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Kerstin Lehnert, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University

Nick McKay, Northern Arizona University

James D. Moore III, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management

Carrie Morrill, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Contents

Preface

Acronyms and Abbreviations

Summary

The Study Origin and Statement of Task

The Role of Paleoenvironmental Data in Understanding Extreme Events

Demonstrated Societal Relevance

The Existing Information Ecosystem and Its Gaps

A Vision for a Synthesis and Translation Center

Meeting Future Needs

1 Introduction

Overview of the Study

Organization of the Report

2 The Role of Paleoenvironmental Data in Understanding Extreme Events

What Is an Extreme Event?

What are Paleoenvironmental Data and Records?

How are Extreme Events Recorded in Paleoevironmental Data?

Examples of Use of Paleoenvironmental Information

What Organizations Use Paleoenvironmental Data?

3 Overview of the Ecosystem of Existing Information

Collection—Samples and Repositories

Characterization—Archives of Proxy Data

Interpretation—Extreme Event Histories

Integration—Multisite Integration

Translation—Information for User Communities

Gaps and Challenges

4 Potential Models for a New Center

Alternative Concepts for the Potential Center

5 Framework for a Center for the Synthesis and Translation of Paleoenvironmental Data

Stakeholder Communities Served by a New Center

The Critical Attributes of a New Center

The Path Forward

References

Appendix A Committee Biographical Information

Appendix B U.S.-Based Repositories of Paleoenvironmental Data

Appendix C Glossary

Boxes, Figures, and Tables

BOXES

S-1 Statement of Task

1-1 Statement of Task

2-1 U.S. Federal Agencies that Support Collection of, Provide Access to, and Use Paleoenvironmental Data

FIGURES

2-1 Schematic workflow from natural archive collection to paleoenvironmental data generation and interpretation

2-2 Tree-ring record of past environmental conditions

2-3 Time spans and temporal resolution of paleoenvironmental archives

2-4 Examples of natural archives and the extreme events they record

2-5 A ghost forest in Copalis, Washington, is evidence of the 1700 Cascadia earthquake

2-6 Incorporating paleoenvironmental data improves flood frequency analysis

3-1 Schematic of the information ecosystem for paleoenvironmental data

TABLES

2-1 Examples of Extreme Events and the Proxy Data Used to Document Them in Different Natural Archives

5-1 Examples of Stakeholders that Could Participate in and Benefit from Projects to Analyze, Synthesize, and Translate Information Related to Paleoenvironmental Extreme Events

5-2 Hypothetical Annual Budget for a Synthesis and Translation Center

B-1 U.S.-Based Physical Repositories of Paleoenvironmental Records

Preface

There are many examples where knowledge of the Earth’s history has raised awareness of the threat of natural disasters and enabled resilience planning that has saved lives and spared property. With a greater understanding of the chronology and severity of extreme events comes the opportunity to prepare for, adapt to, and mitigate the societal consequences of disasters such as the loss of life and property, and the devastation of communities. Increasingly, studies show that economic impacts of natural disasters are greatly lessened when communities prepare and plan. These findings highlight the need for scientific investigations of the Earth’s past that are informed by and benefit societal needs.

At the request of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (National Academies) was tasked to assemble a group of experts to consider the potential functions of a new center for paleoenvironmental records of extreme events (CPREE), as well as its potential goals and objectives. The National Academies formed an ad hoc committee to examine the scientific community’s ability to advance understanding of Earth’s past history of extreme events, informed by the needs of societal stakeholders (such as planners, engineers, businesses, and community leaders), and supported by advanced computational and informatic tools, to produce actionable knowledge pertinent to community needs and the potential for investments. The report recognizes the critical role of stakeholders in helping to frame the topics that a center might consider. Well-framed investigations can provide information to improve risk assessment, building codes, and estimates

of return periods for insurance companies, among other benefits. With new informatic and computational tools come the possibility for exceptional data mining, analysis, and synthesis to jointly address scientific and societal needs. The confluence of engaged stakeholders with societal and scientific knowledge and state-of-the art tools now offers a unique opportunity to meet and get ahead of the challenges that extreme events present.

As committee chair, I extend my gratitude to the committee members for their high level of intellectual engagement, extraordinary collegiality, and strong contributions to the study. The committee thanks the National Academies’ staff for their experienced leadership, scientific insights, organizational skill, and unfailing attention to detail: Jonathan Tucker (lead study director) and Susana Rodriguez (co-study director), Lindsay Moller (research associate), and Maya Frey (senior program assistant). Their guidance and cheerful demeanor provided an exceptional environment for the committee’s work.

Roberta Marinelli, Chair

Committee on Functions and Criteria for a New Center for Paleoenvironmental Records of Extreme Events

March 2026

Acronyms and Abbreviations