Traffic forecasts play an important role in the planning and design of road projects, but we know little about how accurate they are. TRB hosted a webinar on Wednesday, October 14, 2020 from 2:00-3:30 PM Eastern that addressed these gaps, comparing forecasts and post-opening traffic counts for more than 1,200 road projects in the United States and Europe. Presenters identified the factors in forecast accuracy. They also demonstrated a method for estimating the uncertainty of future forecasts from data on the accuracy of past forecasts, and provided recommendations on how to improve traffic forecasting practice.

This webinar draws on research from the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Research Report 934: Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Research.

The slides are linked in the meeting materials below. Click here to view the recording.

Webinar agenda and presenters

1. Measures of traffic forecast accuracy: Greg Erhardt, University of Kentucky
2. A method for estimating traffic forecast uncertainty: Dave Schmitt, Connetics Transportation Group
3. Recommendations for improving practice: Jawad Hoque, University of Kentucky
4. Question and answer session: Moderated by Mei Chen, University of Kentucky

The first 60 minutes of the webinar will be for presentations and the final 30 minutes will be reserved for audience questions.

Learning Objectives

At the end of this webinar, participants will be able to:

1. Describe the overall accuracy of traffic forecasts
2. Apply a spreadsheet to estimate uncertainty windows around traffic forecasts
3. Access and contribute to a database for monitoring forecast accuracy

Professional Development Hours

Professional Development Hours (PDHs) earned on completion of this program were reported to the Registered Continuing Education Program (RCEP). Certificates of Completion are issued to all participants via the RCEP.net online system. Complaints about registered providers may be addressed to RCEP, 1015 15th Street, NW, 8th Fl., Washington, DC, 20005.