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Renewable Fuel Standard evaluates the economic and environmental consequences of increasing biofuels production as a result of Renewable Fuels Standard, as amended by EISA (RFS2). The report describes biofuels produced in 2010 and those projected to be produced and consumed by 2022, reviews model projections and other estimates of the relative impact on the prices of land, and discusses the potential environmental harm and benefits of biofuels production and the barriers to achieving the RFS2 consumption mandate.
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Consensus
·2011
In the United States, we have come to depend on plentiful and inexpensive energy to support our economy and lifestyles. In recent years, many questions have been raised regarding the sustainability of our current pattern of high consumption of nonrenewable energy and its environmental consequences....
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Description
The NRC will appoint a committee of approximately 15 experts to examine and synthesize information on projections of future U.S. biofuels production and its impacts. Using a series of public meetings to gather information and work sessions in which that information is analyzed, the committee will develop a consensus report that includes the following components:o A review of model results and other estimates of the relative effects of the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS), biofuel tax and tariff policy, production costs, and other factors, alone and in combination, on biofuel and petroleum refining capacity, and on the types, amounts and prices of biofuel feedstocks, biofuels, and petroleum-based fuels (including finished motor fuels) produced and consumed in the United States. o A quantitative and qualitative description of biofuels currently produced and projected to be produced and consumed by 2022 in the United States under different policy scenarios, including scenarios with or without current RFS and biofuel tax and tariff policies, and considering a range of future fossil energy and biofuel prices, the impact of a carbon price, and advances in technology. The analysis will include a review of estimates of potential biofuel production levels using RFS-compliant feedstocks from U.S. forests and farmland, including the per-unit cost of that production. The study will assess the effects of current and projected levels of biofuel production, and the incremental impact of additional production, on the number of U.S. acres used for crops, forestry, and other uses, and the associated changes in the price of rural and suburban land. o An analysis of the effects of current and projected levels of biofuel production, and the incremental impact of additional production, on U.S. exports and imports of grain crops, forest products and fossil fuels, and on the price of domestic animal feedstocks, forest products, and food grains. o An analysis of the effect of projected biofuel production on federal revenue and spending, through costs or savings to commodity crop payments, biofuel subsidies, and tariff revenue.o An analysis of the pros and cons of achieving legislated RFS levels, including the impacts of potential shortfalls in feedstock production on the prices of animal feed, food grains, and forest products, and including an examination of the impact of the cellulosic biofuel tax credit established by Sec. 15321 of the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 on the regional agricultural and silvicultural capabilities of commercially available forest inventories. This analysis will explore policy options to maintain regional agricultural and silvicultural capacity in the long term, given RFS requirements for annual increases in the volume of renewable fuels, and include recommendations for the means by which the federal government could prevent or minimize adverse impacts of the RFS on the price and availability of animal feedstocks, food and forest products, including options available under current law.o An analysis of barriers to achieving the RFS requirements.o An analysis of the impact of current and projected future levels of biofuels production and use, and the incremental impact of additional production, on the environment. The analysis will consider impacts due to changes in land use, fertilizer use, runoff, water use and quality, greenhouse gas and local pollutant emissions from vehicles utilizing biofuels, use of forestland biomass, and other factors relevant to the full lifecycle of biofuel production and use. The analysis will summarize and evaluate various estimates of the indirect effects of biofuels production on changes in land use and the environmental implications of those effects.o A comparison of corn ethanol versus other biofuels and renewable energy sources for the transportation sector based on life-cycle analyses, considering cost, energy output, environmental impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions.o Recommendations for additional scientific inquiry related to the items above, and specific areas of interest for future research.As part of its deliberations, the committee will consider the relevant reports of past NRC committees, the work of relevant current committees, and reports of other organizations, and individual researchers. In addition, the committee will consider the relevant experience and reports of various federal government agencies. To inform its analysis, the study committee will seek the input of feed grain producers; food animal producers; producers of other food products; energy producers (renewable and petroleum-based fuel producers, fuel blenders); forest owners and forest products manufacturers and users; individuals and entities interested in nutrition, or in the relationship of the environment to energy production; producers and users of renewable fuel feedstocks; users of renewable fuels; and experts in agricultural economics from land grant universities.The project is sponsored by the U.S. Department of Treasury.The approximate start date of the project is December 2009. A report will be issued in approximately 19 months.December 12, 2009: The committee membership has changed due to the resignation of Timothy Considine.
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Conflict of Interest Disclosure
Disclosure of Conflict of Interest: Aristides Patrinos
In accordance with Section 15 of the Federal Advisory Committee Act, the "Academy shall make its best efforts to ensure that no individual appointed to serve on [a] committee has a conflict of interest that is relevant to the functions to be performed, unless such conflict is promptly and publicly disclosed and the Academy determines that the conflict is unavoidable." A conflict of interest refers to an interest, ordinarily financial, of an individual that could be directly affected by the work of the committee. As specified in the Academy's policy and procedures (http://www.nationalacademies.org/coi/index.html), an objective determination is made for each provisionally appointed committee member whether or not a conflict of interest exists given the facts of the individual's financial and other interests and the task being undertaken by the committee. A determination of a conflict of interest for an individual is not an assessment of that individual's actual behavior or character or ability to act objectively despite the conflicting interest.
We have concluded that for this committee to accomplish the tasks for which it was established its membership must include among others, at least one person who is currently engaged in technology development related to biofuels and who has extensive experience in the U.S. government’s research and development of biofuels.
To meet the need for this expertise and experience, Dr. Aristides Patrinos is proposed for appointment to the committee even though we have concluded that he has a conflict of interest because he is the president of a biotechnology company that develops biofuels from algae. Dr. Patrinos’s company could potentially benefit from the outcome of the study.
As his biographical summary makes clear, Dr. Patrinos has 30 years of service in the U.S. government related to biological and environmental research. His experience and knowledge in research and administration at the Department of Energy is critical for the committee in meeting its task. It is also important that the committee includes a person who is currently conducting research on alternative transportation fuels. Furthermore, algal biofuels is only one of many types of biotechnologies Dr. Patrinos’s firm develops. We believe that Dr. Patrinos can serve effectively as a member of the committee and that the committee can produce an objective report, taking into account the composition of the committee, the work to be performed, and the procedures to be followed in completing the work.
After an extensive search, we have been unable to find another individual with the equivalent combination of government experience and technical expertise as Dr. Patrinos who does not have a similar conflict of interest. Therefore, we have concluded that this potential conflict is unavoidable.
Disclosure of Conflict of Interest: Virginia Dale
In accordance with Section 15 of the Federal Advisory Committee Act, the "Academy shall make its best efforts to ensure that no individual appointed to serve on [a] committee has a conflict of interest that is relevant to the functions to be performed, unless such conflict is promptly and publicly disclosed and the Academy determines that the conflict is unavoidable." A conflict of interest refers to an interest, ordinarily financial, of an individual that could be directly affected by the work of the committee. As specified in the Academy's policy and procedures (http://www.nationalacademies.org/coi/index.html), an objective determination is made for each provisionally appointed committee member whether or not a conflict of interest exists given the facts of the individual's financial and other interests and the task being undertaken by the committee. A determination of a conflict of interest for an individual is not an assessment of that individual's actual behavior or character or ability to act objectively despite the conflicting interest.
We have concluded that for this committee to accomplish the tasks for which it was established its membership must include among others, at least one person who has experience and expertise in landscape ecology and the ecological and environmental impacts of biofuels production from a systems perspective.
To meet the need for this expertise and experience, Dr. Virginia Dale is proposed for appointment to the committee even though we have concluded that she has a conflict of interest because she is the beneficiary of a trust that holds stock in several companies in the oil and gas industry.
Dr. Dale is a landscape ecologist who directs the Center for Bioenergy Sustainability in Oak Ridge Tennessee. As her biographical summary makes clear, she has extensive experience as a landscape ecologist. As Director of the Center for Bioenergy Sustainability she has experience in virtually all aspects of the ecological and environmental impacts of biofuels production and this experience has given her special expertise in understanding these impacts from a systems perspective. This expertise is critical to the ability of the committee to fulfill its task. We believe that Dr. Dale can serve effectively as a member of the committee and that the committee can produce an objective report, taking into account the composition of the committee, the work to be performed, and the procedures to be followed in completing the work.
After an extensive search, we have been unable to find another individual with the equivalent expertise and experience as Dr. Dale who does not have a similar conflict of interest. Therefore, we have concluded that this potential conflict is unavoidable.
Disclosure of Conflict of Interest: Stephen McGovern
In accordance with Section 15 of the Federal Advisory Committee Act, the "Academy shall make its best efforts to ensure that no individual appointed to serve on [a] committee has a conflict of interest that is relevant to the functions to be performed, unless such conflict is promptly and publicly disclosed and the Academy determines that the conflict is unavoidable." A conflict of interest refers to an interest, ordinarily financial, of an individual that could be directly affected by the work of the committee. As specified in the Academy's policy and procedures (http://www.nationalacademies.org/coi/index.html), an objective determination is made for each provisionally appointed committee member whether or not a conflict of interest exists given the facts of the individual's financial and other interests and the task being undertaken by the committee. A determination of a conflict of interest for an individual is not an assessment of that individual's actual behavior or character or ability to act objectively despite the conflicting interest.
We have concluded that for this committee to accomplish the tasks for which it was established its membership must include among others, at least one person who has practical experience with and expertise in oil refining processes and petrochemical production.
To meet the need for this expertise and experience, Dr. Stephen McGovern is proposed for appointment to the committee even though we have concluded that he has a conflict of interest because he owns stock in several oil and gas companies and automobile manufacturers whose financial interests could be affected by the outcome of the study. He also serves as a consultant to several companies in the oil, gas, and biofuels industries
As his biographical summary makes clear, Dr. McGovern has over 35 years of experience in refining and petrochemical industries. He is an expert in the development and commercialization of fossil fuel technologies. He also has experience with clean fuels and refining economics. This experience and expertise is critical to the ability of the committee to fulfill its task. We believe that Dr. McGovern can serve effectively as a member of the committee and that the committee can produce an objective report, taking into account the composition of the committee, the work to be performed, and the procedures to be followed in completing the work.
After an extensive search, we have been unable to find another individual with the equivalent experience and technical expertise as Dr. McGovern who does not have a similar conflict of interest. Therefore, we have concluded that this potential conflict is unavoidable.
Committee Membership Roster Comments
December 12, 2009: The committee membership has changed due to the resignation of Timothy Considine.
February 4, 2010: The committee membership has been changed with the addition of Kathleen Halvorsen, Jason Hill, Theresa Selfa, and Stephen McGovern.
May 5, 2011: The committee membership has been changed due to the resignation of Lester Lave, Chair.
May 16, 2011: The committee membership has been changed due to the appointment of Dr. Tyner and Dr. Burke as cochairs.
Sponsors
Department of Treasury
Staff
Evonne P.Y. Tang
Lead
Major units and sub-units
Division on Earth and Life Studies
Lead
Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources
Lead