An ad hoc National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine committee will examine current scientific understanding of attribution of extreme weather events and their impacts to climate change, and consider user needs and opportunities to improve attribution science capabilities. Specifically, the committee will:

• Provide an updated assessment since the previous National Academies’ report of current scientific understanding and capabilities for attribution of extreme weather events to climate change;
• Discuss the value of attribution science and identify the utility of attribution for different applications, including for management decisions, adaptation planning, and assessment of future risk;
• Assess current capabilities for the attribution of impacts, including from cascading events and extreme weather and climate events;
• Examine methodologies of extreme event attribution, including rapid/real-time attribution and attribution beyond extremes; identify challenges and opportunities for improvement; and provide guidance for best practices;
• Assess the maturity of both research and operational efforts to produce predictive probabilistic forecasts of future extreme events at lead times of days to seasons, and provide guidance on the potential for forecasts to improve extreme event attribution science;
• Provide guidance about how to extend the application of attribution science to regions experiencing extreme events without well-established capacity, including overcoming data gaps and incorporating local stakeholders and knowledge;
• Provide guidance for methods to engage different stakeholders with the results of attribution science; and
• Identify research priorities for improving extreme event attribution methods and modeling, including uncertainty quantification and overcoming data limitations.