The National Academies held a virtual workshop exploring methods for anticipating rare events of major significance on Friday, December 17 from 10:30am-4:30pm ET and Tuesday, December 21 from 10am-3:35pm ET. During the workshop, speakers discussed analytical methods, computational advances, data sources, and risk assessment approaches for anticipating rare events including natural disasters, pandemics, anthropogenic threats, and widespread technological change.

This workshop, sponsored by the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), will both inform DTRA and the greater national security community about methods and models for anticipating rare events and synthesize cross-disciplinary knowledge to improve future prediction.