In response to a request from Congress, this project will “identify, categorize, and analyze emerging safety trends in air transportation.” The committee will review data and analyses of all relevant sources of information, such as operational data being used by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the air transport industry to monitor for potential safety concerns; government and industry voluntary aviation safety reporting systems; FAA’s annual safety culture assessment; and other sources the committee deems appropriate, including National Transportation Safety Board accident investigations; FAA investigations of accidents and incidents; air carrier incidents and safety indicators; and international investigations of accidents and incidents, including information from foreign authorities and the International Civil Aviation Organization. The committee will assess whether these available sources of information are being analyzed in ways that can help identify emerging safety risks as the aviation system evolves and whether other information should be collected and analyzed for this purpose, such as data on accident precursors. The committee may engage in its own empirical analyses of databases.

The project will focus primarily on commercial air transportation sector but will also include other current and prospective users of the national airspace system that could pose risks to commercial aviation. The committee will draw on the results of FAA’s annual internal safety culture assessments and also advise the agency on data and approaches for assessing safety culture to assure that FAA is identifying emerging risks to commercial aviation and sharing that information throughout the agency and with the public.

Throughout the course of this multi-phase project, the committee is expected to continue with its in-depth assessment of commercial aviation’s use of existing and potential domestic and international data sources and analytic processes as means for identifying emerging risks. The project will produce an initial report in mid-2022, biennial reports through 2030, and a final report in 2031. In addition to documenting its study findings in each report, the committee may offer advice to Congress, FAA, industry, and others on options for improving means for identifying, monitoring, understanding, and addressing emerging aviation safety risks, including supplementing, improving, and harmonizing existing databases, reporting systems, and analysis methods.
The task statement will be amended prior to each project phase in accordance with the work anticipated during that phase. The first and second phases produced consensus reports in 2022 and 2024. During the second phase, study committee continued with its in-depth assessment of existing domestic and international data sources and analytic processes as means for identifying emerging risks to commercial air transportation.
Consistent with the original task statement, during the third phase of the project the committee will focus on aspects of the changing workforce across the aviation industry, the new hazards these changes may introduce (as identified in the first-phase report), and the implications for data and analytic processes for identifying, monitoring, understanding, and addressing the hazards and risks. In analyzing the data, the committee may investigate the underlying assumptions inherent in aviation data collection and analysis, as well as in aerospace operations and the knowledge, skills, and abilities of aviation sector personnel. As in the second-phase report, the committee may also broaden its examination of safety culture beyond the purview of the FAA to include its role in safety management practices across the commercial aerospace industry.