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In Section 132 of the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2021, Congress requested the National Academies launch a 10-year study to provide ongoing, independent assessments of emerging risks in commercial air transportation. This project will identify, categorize, and analyze emerging safety trends in air transportation by examining FAA data and reports, safety culture assessments, accident and incident investigations, and more. The project will produce an inital report in mid- 2022, biennial reports through 2030, and a final report in 2031.
Events
Public Briefing for the Report: Emerging Hazards in Commercial Aviation - Ensuring Safety During Transformative Changes
- October 24, 2024
- 10:30 AM - 12:00 PM (ET)
- Webinar
- Past
As commercial aviation evolves, it is essential to ensure aviation safety as transformative technologies and new industry entrants emerge. Supporting the safe adoption of innovation will require updat...
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Meeting on the Annual Safety Culture Survey)
- September 8, 2023
- 1:00 PM - 3:00 PM (ET)
- Past
This was a virtual committee meeting with the primary objective of discussing the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Annual Safety Culture Survey.
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety Workshop #2 - Safety for New Innovations
- August 29, 2023
- 8:00 AM - 4:00 PM (ET)
- Workshop
- Past
This in-person workshop served both innovators in the aviation industry and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in anticipating safety issues for innovations in aviation technology and operation...
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety Workshop on Safety Foresight
- March 20, 2023
- 8:00 AM - 4:00 PM (ET)
- Workshop
- Past
The committee on Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety is congressionally tasked (Sec 132 of the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021) with identifying, categorizing, and analyzing emerging safety trend...
Public Briefing for the Report: Emerging Hazards in Commercial Aviation - Initial Assessment of Safety Data and Analysis Processes
- August 18, 2022
- 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM (ET)
- Webinar
- Past
Commercial aviation safety in the United States has improved more than 40-fold over the last several decades, according to Boeing. The biggest risks include managing safety in the face of climate chan...
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Phase 1, Meeting #4)
- December 8, 2021
- 12:00 PM - 5:50 PM (ET)
- Past
This was the committee's fourth meeting, which was held virtually. The primary objective of this meeting was to hear perspectives from additional key stakeholder groups on what they identify as emergi...
Deep Dive on the Commercial Aviation Safety Team by FAA
- December 7, 2021
- 11:00 AM - 12:30 PM (ET)
- Past
This briefing provided by the FAA provided a deeper dive on what processes and analyses the Commercial Aviation Safety Team utilizes to identify and monitor commercial aviation safety risks.
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Phase 1, Meeting #3)
- November 10, 2021
- 9:00 AM - 6:00 PM (ET)
- Past
This was the third meeting of the Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety study committee. The primary objective of this meeting was to hear perspectives from additional stakeholder groups on what they ide...
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Phase 3, Meeting #9, In Person)
- October 21 - 22, 2025
- Closed
- Meeting
- Past
The committee convened for a closed meeting to refine their findings and recommendations for their upcoming report, which is set to be released in the summer of 2026. The committee discussed themes re...
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Phase 3, Meeting #8)
- September 19, 2025
- 11:00 AM - 12:30 PM (ET)
- Meeting
- Past
In this meeting, committee members heard from safety and organizational culture expert Professor Carl Macrae. Professor Macrae provided insights on generational culture changes as it pertains to comme...
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Meeting on the 2024 Annual Safety Culture Survey)
- September 5, 2025
- 1:00 PM - 2:00 PM (ET)
- Meeting
- Past
This was an open virtual committee meeting where representatives of the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) discussed the results of the 2024 Annual Safety Culture Assessment.
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Phase 3, Meeting #7)
- August 29, 2025
- 11:00 AM - 12:30 PM (ET)
- Closed
- Meeting
- Past
The committee met in closed session to discuss presentations and comments shared in earlier 2025 committee meetings regarding the safety implications of the changing workforce in commercial aviation....
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Phase 3, Meeting #6)
- July 11, 2025
- 11:00 AM - 12:30 PM (ET)
- Meeting
- Past
This meeting focused on complexities of pilot performance, particularly the integration and training for non-technical skills, such as flight path management, communication, and decision-making under...
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Phase 3, Meeting #5)
- June 18, 2025
- 1:00 PM - 2:30 PM (ET)
- Meeting
- Past
This meeting discussed how generational shifts in attitudes, expectations, and training are impacting cockpit dynamics and aviation safety. Captain Helena Cunningham shared her thoughts on these theme...
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Phase 3, Meeting #4)
- May 19, 2025
- 11:00 AM - 12:30 PM (ET)
- Meeting
- Past
This meeting was a closed committee discussion on crew management safety, maintenance training, and how people manage risk and resilience in aviation.
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Meeting on the 2023 Annual Safety Culture Survey)
- April 2, 2025
- 12:00 PM - 1:30 PM (ET)
- Meeting
- Past
This was an open virtual committee meeting where representatives of the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) discussed the results of the 2023 Annual Safety Culture Assessment.
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Phase 3, Meeting #2)
- March 10, 2025
- 11:00 AM - 12:30 PM (ET)
- Closed
- Meeting
- Past
This was the committee's second meeting of the third phase of this study, which was held virtually. The primary objective of this meeting was to come to consensus on the what specific areas of aviatio...
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Phase 3, Meeting #1)
- January 30 - 31, 2025
- Closed
- Meeting
- Past
This will be the first meeting of the updated Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety study committee. The committee meeting topics will include: An overview of NASEM policies and procedures Discussion of...
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety Meeting #13
- March 21 - 22, 2024
- Closed
- Meeting
- Past
The committee convened for a closed meeting to refine their findings and recommendations for their upcoming report, which is set to be released in the summer of 2024. The committee discussed themes re...
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety: Briefing on the 2023 FAA Annual Safety Culture Survey
- March 11, 2024
- 2:30 PM - 3:30 PM (ET)
- Meeting
- Past
This is a virtual committee meeting with the primary objective of discussing high-level takeaways on the 2023 Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Annual Safety Culture Survey. This marks the secon...
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Phase 2, Meeting #12)
- February 29, 2024
- 11:00 AM - 1:00 PM (ET)
- Closed
- Meeting
- Past
The committee met virtually to continue refining their findings and recommendations for their upcoming report. Committee discussions revolved around regulatory oversight of safety culture and the appl...
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Phase 2, Meeting #11)
- January 31, 2024
- 11:00 AM - 1:00 PM (ET)
- Closed
- Past
The committee met virtually to continue refining their findings and recommendations for their upcoming report.
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Phase 2, Meeting #10)
- December 20, 2023
- 2:00 PM - 3:30 PM (ET)
- Closed
- Past
The committee met virtually to continue refining their findings and recommendations for their upcoming report.
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Phase 2, Meeting #9)
- December 13, 2023
- 1:00 PM - 2:30 PM (ET)
- Closed
- Past
This was a closed virtual committee meeting to further refine findings and recommendations for the upcoming report.
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Phase 2, Meeting #8)
- November 6, 2023
- 2:30 PM - 4:30 PM (ET)
- Closed
- Meeting
- Past
The committee convened virtually to continue progress on developing and refining the findings and recommendations for their upcoming report.
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Phase 2, Meeting #7)
- October 13, 2023
- 1:30 PM - 3:30 PM (ET)
- Closed
- Meeting
- Past
This was a closed session committee meeting to summarize a recent call with congressional staffers and a follow up briefing by the FAA on the Annual Safety Culture Survey. The committee also discussed...
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Follow up Meeting on the Annual Safety Culture Survey)
- October 10, 2023
- 1:00 PM - 3:00 PM (ET)
- Meeting
- Past
This is a virtual committee meeting with the primary objective of discussing additional details on the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Annual Safety Culture Survey.
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety - Meeting on Certification Processes for Innovation
- July 13, 2023
- 12:00 PM - 3:00 PM (ET)
- Meeting
- Past
This was a virtual committee meeting with the primary objective of discussing current certification pathways for certifying innovative technologies or operations in commercial aviation. Representative...
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety - Meeting on Safety Culture
- June 14, 2023
- 1:00 PM - 2:00 PM (ET)
- Meeting
- Past
This was a virtual committee meeting with the primary objective of discussing key concepts in safety culture. Two presenters discussed safety culture in regulatory environments in order to support the...
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Closed Committee Meeting)
- March 10, 2023
- 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM (ET)
- Closed
- Past
This is a closed session committee meeting to finalize the agenda and objectives of the March 20th workshop.
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Phase 2, Committee Meeting #5)
- February 17, 2023
- 2:00 PM - 4:00 PM (ET)
- Closed
- Past
This is a closed session committee meeting to discuss areas of concern and next steps.
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Phase 2, Meeting #4)
- February 3, 2023
- 2:00 PM - 4:00 PM (ET)
- Closed
- Past
This was a closed session committee meeting to discuss concerning situations, Aerospace Corp tools for strategic foresight, and aspects of single pilot operations.
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Phase 2, Meeting #3)
- November 21, 2022
- 12:00 PM - 3:00 PM (ET)
- Closed
- Meeting
- Past
This was the committee's third meeting of the second phase of this study, which was held virtually. The primary objective of this meeting wa to come to consensus on the what specific areas within the...
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Phase 2, Meeting #2)
- November 9, 2022
- 1:30 PM - 3:00 PM (ET)
- Closed
- Meeting
- Past
This was the committee's second meeting of the second phase of this study, which was held virtually. The primary objective of this meeting was to come to consensus on the what specific areas of aviati...
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Phase 2, Meeting #1)
- September 14, 2022
- 11:00 AM - 2:00 PM (ET)
- Closed
- Meeting
- Past
This was the committee's first meeting of the second phase of this study, which was held virtually. The primary objective of this meeting was to determine what specific areas of aviation safety will b...
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety - Discussion on CAST and ASIAS
- April 22, 2022
- 2:00 PM - 4:00 PM (ET)
- Meeting
- Past
This open meeting was for the committee to dive into deeper details regarding the FAA's Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) and the Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing (ASIAS) system....
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Phase 1, Meeting #5)
- January 28, 2022
- 1:00 PM - 3:30 PM (ET)
- Meeting
- Past
This was the committee's fifth meeting, which was held virtually. The primary objective of this meeting was to hear perspectives from key aviation stakeholder groups both within and outsidethe FAA on...
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Phase 1, Meeting #2)
- October 20, 2021
- 11:00 AM - 5:00 PM (ET)
- Meeting
- Past
This was the committee's second meeting, which was held virtually. The primary objective of this meeting was to hear perspectives from key stakeholder groups on what they identify as emerging trends i...
Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety (Phase 1, Meeting #1)
- August 30, 2021
- 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM (ET)
- Meeting
- Past
This was the first meeting of the Emerging Trends in Aviation Safety study committee. The committee meeting topics included: An overview of the National Academies policies and procedures Discussion o...