Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises (2002)
Chapter: Index
Index
A
chlorofluorocarbons, 47, 66, 165
dust, 21, 25, 27, 30, 36, 80, 83, 86, 144
Africa
disease, 147
Eemian climate change, 39
Agriculture, 17, 53, 57, 114, 119, 123-125, 128, 133, 137, 138, 141-142, 143, 145, 148, 152
see also Drought
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, 158
Annular variation, see Interannual variations
Antarctica, 36, 65-67, 69, 77, 78, 156, 162
Antarctic Oscillation, 49
Arctic Ocean, 65, 114, 117, 140
Arctic Oscillation (AO), 48, 49, 50, 52, 57-58, 60, 62, 65, 67-68, 113
Atlantic Ocean, 36-37, 38, 60-69, 71, 72, 76-77, 80-81, 82, 84, 162
Eemian climate change, 39
El Niño, impacts on, 50, 52, 110
Holocene rapid climate change, 41
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), 44, 49, 57-58, 60-61, 62, 65, 67-68, 90, 113, 134
thermohaline circulation, 77, 80-81, 82, 84-85, 90, 96, 102, 103, 108-117, 156
tropical variability, 48, 52-53, 62, 78, 81-82, 110
Younger Dryas, 34, 35-36, 76-77
Atmosphere-ocean interactions, 47, 62, 67-69, 71, 75-76, 80-83, 84-85, 90, 108, 110, 112
see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation
Antarctic Oscillation, 49
Arctic Oscillation (AO), 48, 49, 50, 52, 57-58, 60, 62, 65, 67-68, 113
committee research recommendations, 2, 154
modeling of, 75-76, 82-83, 94, 101, 114, 154
general circulation models (GCMs), 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), 44, 49, 57-58, 60-61, 62, 65, 67-68, 90, 113, 134
sea surface processes, 47, 50, 51, 79, 84
Atmospheric processes, other, 71, 73, 80-86
see also Drought;
Greenhouse gases;
Precipitation;
Wind
circulation, 46, 54, 78, 80-86
(passim), 87
general circulation models (GCMs), 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104
modeling, other, 75
clouds, 71, 73, 80, 83-84, 85, 86, 87
committee research recommendations, 3
fires, 3, 9, 135, 136, 141, 158, 164, 166
ice core evidence, 6, 19, 25-30, 36, 66, 135-136, 162
Eemian climate change, 39
Holocene rapid climate change, 42
Younger Dryas interval, 25-30, 32
ozone layer depletion, 58
B
Biodiversity, 17, 108, 128, 136-137, 138, 141, 147, 157
C
Carbon dating, see Radiocarbon measurements
Carbon dioxide, 22, 77, 80, 83, 89, 111, 114, 131-132, 138, 143, 144, 150-151
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 158
Central America and the Caribbean, 31-32, 34-35
Chaotic processes, 2, 3, 14, 73, 74, 75, 76, 91, 92, 94, 99, 107, 120, 121, 135, 145, 146, 149, 154, 155, 158, 165
Chlorofluorocarbons, 47, 66, 165
Clouds, 71, 73, 80, 83-84, 85, 86, 87
“no-regrets” strategies, 8-9, 166
socioeconomic impacts of sea-level rise, 129-131, 133
Younger Dryas in Europe, 31
D
Dansgaard/Oeschger oscillations, 36-37, 74, 77, 83, 89
Decadal variations, 6, 48, 46, 52, 153
see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation
forest dieback, 134-135
global warming, 116
Holocene droughts, 40, 43, 44, 45, 74, 119, 144
Definitional issues
abrupt climate change, general, 14-15
climate, general, 72
Dendrochronology, 19-20, 21, 24, 42, 135
Developing countries, 8, 140-141, 164-165, 167
Diseases, see Health effects
Droughts, 1, 15-16, 19, 20, 53-55, 57, 70, 108, 118-119, 128, 133, 134, 135-136, 143-144, 148, 152
Holocene period, 40, 43, 44, 45, 74, 119, 144
wetlands, 139
Dust, 21, 25, 27, 30, 36, 80, 83, 86, 144
E
Ecological impacts, 6, 15-17, 118, 120-141, 154-155
committee research recommendations, 2-3, 154-155, 157-159, 161, 162
definitional issues, 14
forests, 3, 84, 86, 128, 129, 133-136
“no-regrets” strategies, 8-9, 164-166
US National Assessment, 11
Economic factors, 6, 16-17, 60, 118-152, 154-155, 167
agriculture, 17, 53, 57, 114, 119, 123-125, 128, 133, 137, 138, 141-142, 143, 145, 148, 152;
see also Drought
committee research recommendations, 2-3, 4, 154-155, 157-159, 160, 161, 162
developing countries, 8, 140-141, 164-165, 167
floods, 121-122, 134, 146, 164, 166
global warming, 116, 129-132, 137, 141, 143, 150-151, 152
modeling, 5, 129-131, 141-142, 160
“no-regrets” strategies, 8-9, 164-166
nonmarket accounts, 3, 128, 154, 158
recreation and leisure, 148, 149
research, 71;
see also Funding
water supply, 17, 51, 115, 139, 144-146, 152, 156, 166;
see also Drought
Eemian rapid climate change, 38-40
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), 14, 48, 50-52, 67, 69, 71-72, 85, 90, 112, 129, 136
Holocene rapid climate change, 40, 41-42, 44
precessional insolation, 87
socioeconomic effects, 119, 133, 147
Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array, 47
Europe
Atlantic thermohaline circulation, 81, 89 disease, 147-148
Eemian climate change, 39
Little Ice Age, 118
North Atlantic Oscillation, 57
Extinction, species, see Biodiversity
F
Fires, 3, 9, 135, 136, 141, 158, 164, 166
Atlantic Ocean, impact on, 76
Holocene period, 40, 44-45, 65
socioeconomic impacts, 121-122, 134, 146, 164, 166
Forcing and forcing thresholds, 2, 3, 4, 8, 13, 14, 17, 59, 73, 84, 86-88, 107, 111, 114, 154, 158
see also Global warming
Holocene droughts, 44
models, 74, 75-76, 93-94, 95-97, 100-101
socioeconomic impacts, 121-122, 134-141
oceanic response, 46, 52, 62, 65, 79, 93-94, 95, 103-104
Forecasting, weather events, 3, 8, 105, 116, 123, 158, 164, 165-166
Forests, 3, 84, 86, 128, 129, 133-136
fires, 3, 9, 135, 136, 141, 158, 164, 166
Freshwater balance, 6-7, 16, 65, 71, 76, 79, 80, 82, 91, 94, 117, 156-157, 158
see also Salinity;
Thermohaline circulation
groundwater, 20, 22, 54, 117, 139, 145, 146, 157
water supply, 17, 51, 115, 139, 144-146, 152, 156, 166
Funding
committee study at hand, 2, 18
“no-regrets” strategies, 8-9
paleoclimatic research, 6
G
General circulation models (GCMs), 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104
GENESIS model, 82
Glaciers,
see Land ice
Global Change Research Program, 2, 17
Global warming, 8, 43, 55, 62, 82, 105, 107-117, 137
see also Greenhouse gases
freshwater balance, 110, 113-114
socioeconomic impacts, 116, 129-132, 137, 141, 143, 150-151, 152
Greenhouse effect, 1, 86, 107-117, 113, 137, 138, 146-147
see also Global warming
carbon dioxide, 22, 77, 80, 83, 89, 111, 114, 131-132, 138, 143, 144, 150-151
“no-regrets” strategies, 8, 165
Greenland, 6, 15, 36-37, 77, 83, 102, 135-136, 139-140, 156, 162
Eemian climate change, 39
fisheries, 60
Younger Dryas interval, 25-29, 30, 37
Groundwater, 20, 22, 54, 117, 139, 145, 146, 157
H
Hadley circulation, 81-82, 84, 85, 87
Health effects, 146-148, 135, 136, 146-149, 158
Heinrich events, 38, 74, 78, 89, 115
Historical observations, 3, 7, 11, 45-48, 53-69, 70-72, 74
see also Economic factors;
Social influences and effects
committee report methodology, 17
forest dieback, 135
Holocene rapid climate change, 42, 43-44
Historical perspectives, research, 19, 46
modeling, 74-75
Holocene rapid climate change, 40-45, 52, 69-70, 74, 119, 144
Hydrology, 54, 70, 110, 114, 154, 156-157
see also Floods;
Freshwater balance;
Oceans;
Precipitation
committee research recommendations, 2, 3, 7
groundwater, 20, 22, 54, 117, 139, 145, 146, 157
Holocene floods, 65
I
see also Land ice
sea ice, 3, 38, 46, 47, 48, 62, 65, 71, 78-80, 113-114, 115, 117, 154
Antarctica, 26, 35, 36, 65-67, 69, 77, 78
Arctic Ocean, 65, 114, 117, 140
Ice ages, 1, 10, 14-15, 23, 38, 45, 69-70, 77-78, 107
Little Ice Age, 43, 45, 56, 57, 74, 163
Ice core evidence, 6, 19, 24, 25-30, 36, 66, 135-136, 162
Eemian climate change, 39
Holocene rapid climate change, 42
Younger Dryas interval, 25-30, 32
tropical variability, 52-53
Younger Dryas, 35-36
Interannual variations, 5, 6, 7, 42, 49
see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation;
Ice core evidence
Arctic Oscillation, 48, 49, 50, 52, 57-58, 60, 62, 65, 67-68, 113
dendrochronology, 19-20, 21, 24, 42, 135
North Atlantic Oscillation, 44, 49, 57-58
Interdisciplinary approaches, see Multidisciplinary approaches
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 116, 133
International Civil Aviation Organization, 61
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, 42
Isotopic indicators, 20, 22-23, 108
radiocarbon measurements, 21, 24, 30, 33-34, 47, 108
Younger Dryas interval, 25, 30, 33-34
L
Land ice, 3, 20, 22, 52, 73, 78-80, 86, 88-89, 139-140, 145, 154, 156-157
see also Greenland;
Ice ages;
Ice core
evidenceDansgaard/Oeschger
oscillations, 36-37
freshwater discharges from, 76, 101, 116-117
global warming, 113-115
Holocene rapid climate change, 40-41
interglacial periods, 38-40
methane releases, 87-88
permafrost/tundra, 3, 22, 57, 70, 88, 113-114, 116-117, 136, 157
Younger Dryas interval, 14, 15, 24-36, 37, 41, 74, 77, 79, 89, 128, 163, 165
Land surface, general, 2, 3, 80, 81, 86, 114, 138, 154-155, 156-158
see also Droughts;
Floods
agriculture, 17, 53, 57, 114, 119, 123-125, 128, 133, 137, 138, 141-142, 143, 145, 148, 152
fires, 3, 9, 135, 136, 141, 158, 164, 166
impermeable surfaces, 137
“no-regrets” strategies, 8-9
Lake and bog sediments, 21, 23, 24, 39
Little Ice Age, 43, 45, 56, 57, 74, 163
M
Marine environments, see Oceans
Methane, 25, 27, 30, 36, 83, 87-88, 108, 109, 136, 147
Models and modeling, 1, 48, 74-75, 94
see also Statistical analyses
atmosphere-ocean interactions, 75-76, 82-83, 94, 101, 114, 154
general circulation models (GCMs), 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104
committee report methodology, 17
committee research recommendations, 2, 4-5, 154, 159-161
economic, 5, 129-131, 141-142, 160
El Niño, 42
forcing, 74, 75-76, 93-94, 95-97, 100-101
general circulation models (GCMs), 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104
GENESIS model, 82
global warming, 60, 111-112, 113-114, 131-132, 159
historical perspectives, 74-75
instrumental measures and, 46
land ice, 75-76, 83, 101, 102, 105
mechanical analogy of climate change, 12-13
nonlinearities, 2, 3, 14, 73, 74, 75, 76, 91, 92, 94, 99, 107, 120, 121, 135, 145, 146, 149, 154, 155, 158, 165
ocean, 75, 76, 82, 91-102, 160
general circulation models (GCMs), 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104
sea-level rise, coastal zone impacts, 129-131
social, 4, 129-131, 141-142, 157-158, 161
thermohaline circulation, 64, 75, 76, 91-102, 110, 111-112, 150-152, 156, 160
Younger Dryas interval, 83, 102, 105
Monte Carlo simulations, 92
Multidisciplinary approaches, 6, 120, 133, 159, 161, 162
N
National Wildlife Health Center, 158
New Zealand, 33
Nonlinearities, 2, 3, 14, 73, 74, 75, 76, 91, 92, 94, 99, 107, 120, 121, 135, 145, 146, 149, 154, 155, 158, 165
“No-regrets” strategies, 8-9, 164-166
North America, 128
Atlantic thermohaline circulation, 81
drought, Dust Bowl, 43-44, 53-55
North Atlantic Oscillation, 57
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), 44, 49, 57-58, 60-61, 62, 65, 67-68, 90, 113, 134
O
see also Coastal zones;
specific oceans
atmosphere-ocean interaction, 2
circulation, 3, 4, 21, 34, 39, 46, 47, 48, 62, 65-66, 70, 71, 78, 81-82, 89, 90, 155-156, 157, 162
general circulation models (GCMs), 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104
Hadley circulation, 81-82, 84, 85, 87
models, other than GCMs, 75, 76, 82, 91-102, 160
see also Thermohaline circulation
deepwater, 2, 3, 4, 34, 36-37, 38, 47, 63, 66, 67, 76, 77, 78, 79, 103-104, 108, 154, 155-156, 160, 162
forcing, response to, 46, 52, 62, 65, 79, 93-94, 95, 103-104
heat transport, 64, 65, 66, 75, 76-78, 81, 85-86;
see also Thermohaline circulation
ice, 3, 38, 46, 47, 48, 62, 65, 71, 78-80, 113-114, 115, 117, 154
Antarctica, 26, 35, 36, 65-67, 69, 77, 78
Arctic Ocean, 65, 114, 117, 140
isotopic measurements, 23
methane releases, 87-88
paleoclimatology, 6-7
sea level, 39, 78, 109, 114, 115, 116, 131, 140, 156, 130-131, 133, 148
sea surface, 36, 47, 50, 51, 52, 61-62, 64-65, 71-72, 77, 78, 82, 84, 90, 101, 104, 109-110
Antarctic Oscillation, 49
Arctic Oscillation, 48, 49, 50, 52, 57-58, 60
North Atlantic Oscillation, 44, 49, 57-58, 60-61
see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation
sediments and corals, 21, 23, 34-35, 38, 45, 85, 129
Heinrich layers, 38, 74, 78, 89, 115
Ozone layer depletion, 58
P
Pacific Decadal Oscillation, 51-52, 67, 68
Pacific North American pattern, 50
Pacific Ocean, other, 67, 70, 77-78, 84, 90, 156
see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation
Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array, 47
Paleoclimate proxies and age indicators, 10, 11, 19-55, 88-89, 113, 114, 118, 153, 156
see also Ice core evidence;
Sediment analyses
biodiversity, 136-137
committee report methodology, 17
committee research recommendations, 2, 5-7, 154, 161-163
Dansgaard/Oeschger oscillations, 36-37, 74, 77, 83, 89
dendrochronology, 19-20, 21, 24, 42, 135
forest dieback, 134-135
Heinrich events, 38, 74, 78, 89, 115, 108
radiocarbon measurements, 21, 24, 30, 33-34, 47, 108
isotopic indicators, 20, 22-23
precipitation, 21, 23, 53, 118
Younger Dryas interval, 14, 15, 24-36, 37, 41, 74, 77, 79, 89, 128, 163, 165
PAst Global changES (PAGES), 42
Permafrost/tundra, 3, 22, 57, 70, 88, 113-114, 116-117, 136, 157
Policy perspectives, 1-2
definitional issues, 14
“no-regrets” strategies, 8-9, 164-166
Precipitation, 21, 23, 53, 58, 84-85, 86, 110, 114, 118, 122, 132, 137, 152, 153, 156-157
see also Droughts;
Floods
R
Radiocarbon measurements, 21, 24, 30, 33-34, 47, 108
Recreation and leisure, 148, 149
Regional climate change, 1, 10, 11, 16, 49, 58, 59, 70, 135, 155
see also Droughts;
Floods;
Tropical regions;
specific world regions and oceans
Eemian climate change, 39
Holocene rapid climate change, 40, 41, 42
human population migrations, 140-141
“no-regrets” strategies, 9
socioeconomic impacts, 129-132
Younger Dryas interval, 30-34
Research recommendations, 2-9, 18, 69-72, 106, 154-167
“no-regrets” strategies, 8-9, 164-166
S
Salinity, 21, 23, 26-27, 29, 47, 59, 62, 63, 64-65, 66-67, 76, 79, 156-157
see also Freshwater balance;
Thermohaline circulation
Younger Dryas interval, 25, 79
Satellite technology, 46, 66, 71
Seas, see Oceans
marine organism growth, 20
oceans, heat storage, 77
Sediment analyses, 6, 7, 20-24
Heinrich layers, 38, 74, 78, 89, 115
Holocene rapid climate change, 42
lake and bog sediments, 21, 23, 24, 39
ocean, 21, 23, 34-35, 38, 45, 85, 129
Heinrich layers, 38, 74, 78, 89, 115
Younger Dryas interval, 14, 15, 24-36
Social influences and effects, 2, 15-17, 18, 44, 87, 118-152, 154, 167
see also Economic factors
committee research recommendations, 2, 4, 7, 157-158, 159, 161, 163-164
definitional issues, 14
floods, 121-122, 134, 146, 164, 166
global warming, 116, 129-132, 137, 141, 143, 150-151, 152
health effects, 146-148, 135, 136, 146-149, 158
Holocene rapid climate change, 40
modeling, 4, 129-131, 141-142, 157-158, 161
policy perspectives, 1-2
definitional issues, 14
“no-regrets” strategies, 8-9, 164-166
recreation and leisure, 148, 149
statistical analyses, 126, 163-164
US National Assessment, 11
water supply, 17, 51, 115, 139, 144-146
South America, Younger Dryas interval, 26, 27, 32-33, 34
Statistical analyses
see also Models and modeling
committee research recommendations, 7-8, 163-164, 166
Holocene rapid climate change, 42
Monte Carlo simulations, 92
socioeconomic impacts, 126, 163-164
Storms, 9, 31, 35-36, 49, 51, 53, 54, 55, 109, 125, 133, 148, 163, 165-166
see also Floods
T
Thermohaline circulation (THC), 5, 6-7, 47, 58, 62, 64, 66-67, 77, 79, 80-81, 82, 84-85, 86, 89-106, 108-117
Atlantic Ocean, 77, 80-81, 82, 84-85, 90, 96, 102, 103, 108-117, 156
modeling of, 64, 75, 76, 91-102, 110, 111-112, 150-152, 156, 160
Thresholds, see Forcing and forcing thresholds
Transport processes
see also “circulation” under Atmospheric processes, other, and Oceans
oceans, heat, 64, 65, 66, 75, 76-78, 81, 85-86
see also Thermohaline circulation
Tree rings,
see Dendrochronology
Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array, 47
Tropical regions, general, 16, 47, 50, 51-53, 59, 71-72, 77, 80, 81-82, 84-86, 90, 149
see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation;
Indian Ocean
Atlantic, 48, 52-53, 62, 78, 81-82, 110
Hadley circulation, 81-82, 84, 85, 87
Holocene droughts, 44
wetlands, 25
Younger Dryas interval, 27, 33, 34, 35
Tundra, see Permafrost/tundra
U
US Global Change Research Program, see Global Change Research Program
US National Assessment, 11
V
agriculture, 17, 53, 57, 114, 119, 123-125, 128, 133, 137, 138, 141-142, 143, 145, 148, 152
forests, 3, 84, 86, 128, 129, 133-136 (passim), 133, 134, 135-136, 138, 142-144
fires, 3, 9, 135, 136, 141, 158, 164, 166
Venezuela, Younger Dryas interval, 26, 27
W
Water supply, 17, 51, 115, 139, 144-146, 152, 156, 166
see also Drought
lake and bog sediments, 21, 23, 24, 39
Wind, 21, 22, 36, 62, 65, 66, 81, 89, 104
Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array, 47
Y
Yale/NBER Program on International Environmental Economics, 18
Younger Dryas interval, 14, 15, 24-36, 37, 41, 74, 77, 79, 89, 128, 163, 165
Atlantic Ocean, 34, 35-36, 76-77
Indian Ocean, 35-36
isotopic indicators, 25, 30, 33-34
sediment analyses, 14, 15, 24-36
South America, 26, 27, 32-33, 34
