NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Contract No. NASW-99037, Task Order 103, between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and by a grant from the New York Community Trust. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy
National Research Council
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National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine
National Research Council
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M.Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A.Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of further-ing knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M.Alberts and Dr. Wm. A.Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
Dale Jorgenson
Frederic Eaton Abbe Professor of Economics
Harvard University
Bill Spencer
The Washington Advisory Group
John Armstrong
Vice President, Science and Technology (retired)
IBM
M.Kathy Behrens
Managing Partner
Robertson Stephens Investment Management
Vinton G.Cerf
Senior Vice President,
Internet Architecture and Technology
WorldCom
David Challoner
Director
Institute for Science and Health Policy and
Vice President for
Health Affairs Emeritus
University of Florida
Bronwyn Hall
Professor of Economics
University of California, Berkeley
James Heckman
Henry Schultz Distinguished Service Professor of Economics
University of Chicago
Ralph Landau
Senior Fellow
Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
Stanford University
Richard Levin
President
Yale University
David Morgenthaler
Founding Partner
Morgenthaler Ventures
Mark Myers
Senior Vice President (retired)
Corporate Research and Technology
Xerox Corporation
Roger Noll
Morris M.Doyle Centennial Professor of Economics
Director,
Public Policy Program
Stanford University
Edward E.Penhoet
Dean,
School of Public Health
University of California at Berkeley
William Raduchel
Chief Technology Officer
AOL TimeWarner
Warren M. Washington
Senior Scientist and head of the Climate Change Research Section
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Alan Wm. Wolff
Managing Partner
Dewey Ballantine, DC
Stephen A.Merrill
Project Director
Michael McGeary
Consultant
Peter Henderson
Senior Staff Officer
Camille Collett
Program Associate
Craig Schultz
Research Associate
Julie Schneider
NRC Intern
Dale Jorgenson
Frederic Eaton Abbe Professor of Economics
Harvard University
Bill Spencer
The Washington Advisory Group
M.Kathy Behrens
Managing Partner
Robertson Stephens Investment Management
Vinton G.Cerf
Senior Vice President,
Internet Architecture and Technology WorldCom
Bronwyn Hall
Professor of Economics
University of California, Berkeley
James Heckman
Henry Schultz Distinguished Service Professor of Economics
University of Chicago
Ralph Landau
Senior Fellow
Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
Stanford University
Richard Levin
President
Yale University
David Morgenthaler
Founding Partner
Morgenthaler Ventures
Mark Myers
Senior Vice President (retired)
Corporate Research and Technology
Xerox Corporation
Roger Noll
Morris M.Doyle Centennial Professor of Economics and Director,
Public Policy Program
Stanford University
Edward E.Penhoet
Dean,
School of Public Health
University of California at Berkeley
William Raduchel
Chief Technology Officer
AOL Time Warner
Alan Wm. Wolff
Managing Partner
Dewey Ballantine, DC
Bruce Alberts
President
National Academy of Sciences
Wm. A.Wulf
President
National Academy of Engineering
Kenneth I.Shine
President
Institute of Medicine
Stephen A.Merrill
Executive Director
Charles Wessner
Deputy Director
Philip Aspden
Program Officer
Craig Schultz
Research Associate
McAlister T.Clabaugh
Program Associate
Camille Collett
Program Associate
David E.Dierksheide
Program Associate
The improved competitive performance of much of U.S. industry in the 1990s derived from a combination of corporate strategies and supportive public policies, including steady and conservative fiscal policy, economic de-regulation, trade liberalization, relatively lenient antitrust enforcement, and previous decades’ research investments. These were conclusions of an in-depth study of 11 manufacturing and service industries by the National Academies’ Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy (STEP), published in 1999.1 Although cautiously optimistic about the future performance of the economy, the STEP Board articulated four concerns that continue to guide much of its work: the adequacy of measures and statistical data to inform policy making; the availability of skilled human capital to sustain resurgence; the implications for research and innovation of some aspects of the extension of intellectual property rights; and the adequacy of public and private investment in long-range research, especially in the physical sciences and engineering. The Board included in its report a commissioned analysis providing the first detailed picture of changes in the federal research portfolio in the 1990s.2
The present study was undertaken to update and extend the Board’s 1999 effort. In approving this project the National Research Council decided to assemble a study committee that included members of the STEP Board and representatives of a range of scientific disciplines, including the biological, atmospheric, and physical sciences. David Challoner, Warren Washington, and John Armstrong were appointed to the study committee, and we are grateful for their contributions to the report.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Daniel C.Drucker, University of Florida
Susan M.Fitzpatrick, James S.McDonnell Foundation
Pierre C.Hohenberg, Yale University
Anita Jones, University of Virginia
Kei Koizumi, American Association for the Advancement of Science
M.Granger Morgan, Carnegie Mellon Univeristy
Georgine M.Pion, Vanderbilt University
Paul M.Romer, Hoover Institute, Stanford University
Richard N.Zare, Stanford University
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by R. Stephen Berry, University of Chicago, and Ronald Ehrenberg, Cornell University. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was
carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
The Board owes a special debt to Stephen Merrill, STEP Executive Director, and Michael McGeary, consultant, for repeating and extending the analysis that they performed in 1999. They were assisted by Peter Henderson, Director of the Board on Higher Education and the Scientific Workforce, who analyzed data from the Survey of Graduate Students and Postdoctorates in Science Engineering (GSPSE) and drafted the section of the report addressing graduate student support. Craig Schultz, STEP Research Associate, and Julie Schneider, a National Research Council summer 2000 intern and now a research scientist with Genaissance Corporation in New Haven, Connecticut, provided indispensable help compiling and deciding how to present the data. Finally, Camille Collett applied her considerable editorial skills to preparing the manuscript for publication. Rona Briere helped with the editing and design of the publication.
Dale Jorgenson,
Chairman
William Spencer,
Vice Chairman
FIGURES
|
ES-1 |
Federal funding of research, by agency, FY 1993 and FY 1999 (constant dollars), |
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|
ES-2 |
Changes in federal research obligations for all performers and university/college performers, FY 1993–FY 1999 (constant dollars), |
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|
ES-3 |
Percent change in full-time graduate enrollment, by field and primary source of support, 1993–1999, |
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|
1–1 |
Federal obligations for research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–1 |
Federal obligations for research, total and by broad field FY 1970–FY 2000 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–2 |
Federal funding of engineering research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–3 |
Federal funding of aeronautical engineering research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–4 |
Federal funding of civil engineering research FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–5 |
Federal funding of astronautical engineering research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–6 |
Federal funding of chemical engineering research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–7 |
Federal funding of mechanical engineering research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–8 |
Federal funding of electrical engineering research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–9 |
Federal funding of metallurgy/materials engineering research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–10 |
Federal funding of other engineering research FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–11 |
Federal funding of physical sciences research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–12 |
Federal funding of chemistry research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–13 |
Federal funding of astronomy research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–14 |
Federal funding of physics research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–15 |
Federal funding of mathematics research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–16 |
Federal funding of computer science research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–17 |
Federal funding of life sciences research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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2–18 |
Federal funding of medical sciences research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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2–19 |
Federal funding of biological sciences research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
|
2–20 |
Federal funding of environmental biology research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–21 |
Federal funding of agricultural sciences research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–22 |
Federal funding of environmental sciences research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–23 |
Federal funding of atmospheric sciences research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–24 |
Federal funding of oceanography research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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2–25 |
Federal funding of geology research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–26 |
Federal funding of social sciences research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–27 |
Federal funding of psychology research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–28 |
Agency funding of physics research, FY 1993 and FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–29 |
Agency funding of electrical engineering research, FY 1993 and FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–30 |
Agency funding of computer science research, FY 1993 and FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–31 |
Agency funding of materials/metallurgy research, FY 1993 and FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–32 |
Agency funding of medical sciences research, FY 1993 and FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–33 |
Agency funding of oceanography research, FY 1993 and FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–34 |
Agency funding of mathematical sciences research, FY 1993 and FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–35 |
Agency funding of chemical engineering research, FY 1993 and FY 1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
3–1 |
Full-time graduate enrollment in physics, 1993–1999, |
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|
3–2 |
Full-time graduate enrollment in chemistry, 1993–1999, |
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|
3–3 |
Full-time graduate enrollment in astronomy, 1993–1999, |
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|
3–4 |
Full-time graduate enrollment in mathematical sciences, 1993–1999, |
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|
3–5 |
Full-time graduate enrollment in geosciences, 1993–1999, |
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|
3–6 |
Full-time graduate enrollment in atmospheric sciences, 1993–1999, |
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|
3–7 |
Full-time graduate enrollment in ocean sciences, 1993–1999, |
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|
3–8 |
Full-time graduate enrollment in aerospace engineering, 1993–1999, |
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|
3–9 |
Full-time graduate enrollment in chemical engineering, 1993–1999, |
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|
3–10 |
Full-time graduate enrollment in civil engineering, 1993–1999, |
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|
3–11 |
Full-time graduate enrollment in electrical engineering, 1993–1999, |
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|
3–12 |
Full-time graduate enrollment in mechanical engineering, 1993–1999, |
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|
3–13 |
Full-time graduate enrollment in metallurgical and materials engineering, 1993–1999, |
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|
3–14 |
Full-time graduate enrollment in computer science, 1993–1999, |
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|
3–15 |
Full-time graduate enrollment in agricultural sciences, 1993–1999, |
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|
3–16 |
Full-time graduate enrollment in biological sciences, 1993–1999, |
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|
3–17 |
Full-time graduate enrollment in health fields, 1993–1999, |
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|
3–18 |
Full-time graduate enrollment in social sciences, 1993–1999, |
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|
3–19 |
Full-time graduate enrollment in psychology, 1993–1999, |
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|
4–1 |
Research funding by field, Department of Defense, FY 1993 vs. FY 1999, |
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|
4–2 |
Research funding by field, Department of Energy, FY 1993 vs. FY 1999, |
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|
4–3 |
Research funding by field, National Institutes of Health, FY 1993 vs. FY 1999, |
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|
4–4 |
Research funding by field, National Science Foundation, FY 1993 vs. FY 1999, |
TABLES
|
1–1 |
Trends by Agency and Character of Research, 1990–1999 (millions of 1999 dollars), |
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|
2–1 |
Percent Change in Federal Funding for Research, by Field, FY 1993–1999 (in constant dollars), |
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|
2–2 |
Trends by Field and Character of Research, 1990–1999 (millions of 1999 dollars), |
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|
3–1 |
Percent Change in Federal Funding for University Research, Full-time Graduate Enrollment, and Doctorate Degrees Awarded, by Field, 1993–1999, |
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|
3–2 |
Full-time Graduate Enrollment in Science and Engineering, by Field and by Selected Source and Mechanism of Support, 1993–1999, |
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|
4–1 |
Trends in DOD Support of Research, by Field, 1993 to 1997, 1999 (constant dollars), |
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|
4–2 |
Full-time Graduate Students Whose Primary Source of Support is the Department of Defense, by Field, 1993–1999, |
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|
4–3 |
Trends in DOE Support of Research, by Field, 1993 to 1997, 1999 (constant dollars), |
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|
4–4 |
Trends in NIH Support of Research, by Field, 1993 to 1997, 1999 (constant dollars), |
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|
4–5 |
Full-time Graduate Students Whose Primary Source of Support is the National Institutes of Health, by Field, 1993–1999, |
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|
4–6 |
Trends in NSF Support of Research, by Field, 1993 to 1997, 1999 (constant dollars), |
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|
4–7 |
Full-time Graduate Students Whose Primary Source of Support is the National Science Foundation, by Field, 1993–1999, |
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|
5–1 |
Nonfederally Funded Academic R&D in 1999 Dollars, |
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|
5–2 |
1995 Recipients of State R&D Support, by Field (Percent), |
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|
5–3 |
Foundation Grants for Research in Millions of Current Dollars, |
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|
5–4 |
Corporate Funded Industrial Research (Basic and Applied) in Millions of Current Dollars, |
BOXES