Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2 (2010)
Chapter: Appendix B Meetings and Speakers
Appendix B
Meetings and Speakers
The agendas and speakers at meetings 1, 2, and 3 held by the Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies prior to and during the writing of its first report appear in Appendix B of that original report—Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies (published by the National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., in 2010). The committee’s first three meetings were held on October 15-16, 2007; February 26-27, 2008; and May 28-29, 2008, respectively.
This appendix presents the agendas and speakers at meetings 4 through 10 held by the committee in preparation for the writing of this second report. For a separate list of the attendees at and information on the transcripts of the one-day Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies Workshop held by the committee on November 5, 2009, see Appendixes C through F in this volume.
MEETING 4
October 7, 2008
Alsop Louie Partners
San Francisco, California
Writing Meeting
MEETING 5
November 6-7, 2008
Keck Center of the National Academies
Washington, D.C.
X2: Threats, Opportunities, and Advances in Science and Technology
Cesar Castro, Institute for the Future
Future of Science—Year 1
Cesar Castro, Institute for the Future
X2 Project: Year 1 Report
Cesar Castro, Institute for the Future
Palantir Demonstration
Trae Stephens, Palantir Technologies
Blue Horizons (BH) II 2008 Final Report
Theodore Hailes, Center for Strategy and Technology, Air War College
The Impact of Future Technology
Ruoyi Zhou, Almaden Research, IBM
Cultural Impacts of the Internet
Timothy Mack, World Future Society
MEETING 6
January 7-8, 2009
Beckman Center of the National Academies
Irvine, California
X2: Threats, Opportunities, and Advances in Science and Technology
Cesar Castro, Institute for the Future
Implications of Financing to Disruptive Energy Technologies
Preston Roper, Tioga Energy
Prediction, Expectation, … and Surprise
Eric Horvitz, Adaptive Systems and Interaction Group, Microsoft Research
The New Global Challengers, and Globality
David Michael, Boston Consulting Group
Road to Cost Effective PV
Ajeet Rohatgi, Suniva, Inc.
An Emerging Disruptive Technology: Fuel Cells
Scott Samuelsen, Henry Samueli School of Engineering, University of California, Irvine
MEETING 7
March 3-4, 2009
National Academy of Sciences Building
Washington, D.C.
Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies, NAS Committee Update
Cesar Castro, Institute for the Future
Science and Technology Future
John Retelle, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies
Evaluating Disruptive Technologies in the Healthcare Industry (Teleconference)
Molly Coye, Health Technology Center
Globalization and China’s Emerging Technological Trajectory: Issues and Implications
Denis Simon, School of International Affairs, Pennsylvania State University
Disruptive Technologies: Trends and Predictions
James Lewis, Technology and Public Policy Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Practical Forecasting Tips
Lawrence Vanston, Technology Futures, Inc.
Technology Forecasting in the Telecommunications Industry
Lawrence Vanston, Technology Futures, Inc.
SRI’s Process for “Forecasting” Disruptive Innovation
Norman Winarsky, SRI International
MEETING 8
June 30-July 1, 2009
Keck Center of the National Academies
Washington, D.C.
Renewable Energy: Maintech, not Cleantech
Vinod Khosla, Khosla Ventures
Innovation Global Technologies
Mark Minevich, Billion Minds Foundation, Going Global Ventures
Defense Planning Strategies
Christopher A. Preble, Cato Institute
Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies, NAS Committee Update
Cesar Castro, Institute for the Future
A Science Fiction Writer’s Perspective of the Future (Telecon)
Bruce Sterling, Writer
KAUST 21st Century Research University on the Shores of the Red Sea
Ken Minneman, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology
Thoughts on Disruptive Technologies
Maren Leed, International Security Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies
MEETING 9
August 3-4, 2009
Keck Center of the National Academies
Washington, D.C.
Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050, An Era of Revolutionary Change, Scenario Thinking
Jeremy Bentham, Royal Dutch Shell
Why Have Some States Opted for Nuclear Weapons While Others Have Renounced Them?
Etel Solingen, University of California, Irvine
A Multidimensional Overview of Complex Undertakings
John Hofmeister, Citizens for Affordable Energy
U.S. National Security in the 21st Century
David J. Williams, Military Science Fiction, Writer
DTWS Briefing
Ever Morales, Defense Intelligence Agency
Forecasting the Technology Revolution
William Halal, George Washington University, TechCast LLC
Prediction Is Difficult, Especially About the Future
Bernard Meyerson, IBM Systems and Technology Group
Science and Technology Development, From the Combatant Command Perspective
Martin Drake, U.S. Central Command
Remarks to the NRC Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies
Benjamin Riley, Rapid Reaction Technology Office
MEETING 10
Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies Workshop
November 5-6, 2009
Federal Reserve Bank Building
San Francisco, California
See Appendix C in this volume for information on the workshop attendees and Appendixes D and E for the unedited transcripts of the workshop, which are reproduced on the CD attached to the inside back cover of this report and in the PDF available at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id+12834.
